Islamic State New Ceasefire in Gaza Conflict

WTPVBRIEFING WAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE

september 2014

new ceasefire in gaza conflict

in-depth: islamic state TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cover story: New Gaza ceasefire 2

Transnational terrorism 3

In-depth: Islamic State and regional spillover 4-5

Global incidents 6-9

Gaza conflict: indefinite ceasefire announced

Egyptian and Palestinian officials on 26 August announced that Israel and Gaza-based militant group Hamas had agreed to an indefinite ceasefire. The Egyptian government brokered the truce, which came into force at 19.00 on the same day and followed seven weeks of hostilities. Islamic Jihad, Gaza’s second-largest militant group, also reportedly approved the agreement. The open-ended truce, and the short-lived ceasefires that preceded it, point to war-weariness on both sides. Several senior Hamas officials have been assassinated in recent days, during which time the movement has deployed a mere handful of long-range rockets (Israeli intelligence reports suggest that Hamas may only have around 100 left). However, short-range projectiles continued to hit areas bordering Gaza, killing two civilians and increasing pressure on Israel. Nevertheless, the truce does not resolve the main sticking points between Israel and Hamas. Although it calls on Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, key demands – such as Israeli calls for Hamas to be demilitarised and Palestinian calls for the release of prisoners and the construction of a port and airport in Gaza – will only be addressed in September, when both sides are scheduled to hold talks. Much of the international community, including the US and several EU member states, are likely to welcome the truce, but it will face opposition from Israeli hardliners. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Economy Minister Naftali Bennett have reportedly attacked the agreement and called for Hamas to be ‘destroyed’. Their criticisms highlight the domestic political divisions that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has faced throughout Israel’s offensive in Gaza.

Further rocket attacks against Israel remain possible despite the announcement of an indefinite ceasefire

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terrorism implications of western intervention in iraq

The US since 8 August has conducted limited airstrikes targeting positions of Sunni militant group Islamic State (IS) in northern Iraq. It has also deployed additional military advisers to the Kurdistan Region (KR) in northern Iraq and begun to provide weapons to the Peshmerga (Kurdish security forces). Other Western countries have also announced assistance: the UK is deploying military forces to Iraq in humanitarian support roles, while France on 13 August announced that it would send weapons to Kurdish forces. The interventions will bolster the intent of IS, its sympathisers abroad and other jihadist groups to target US and Western interests. Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) on 14 August released a statement via the Twitter social media site that called on jihadist groups to carry out attacks against the US. Further declarations of support for IS and calls for retaliation for the airstrikes are likely. However, the interventions will not significantly or immediately alter terrorism threat dynamics globally. IS remains focused on expanding and securing its ‘caliphate’, which includes territory in both Syria and Iraq. More broadly, jihadist groups already have high intent to target Western interests worldwide and are more constrained by their limited capability. That said, groups may start to claim that otherwise routine attacks have been staged as retaliation for the interventions to maximise their propaganda value. The most pertinent threat scenarios involve plots and attacks by IS and other jihadist sympathisers or recruits in Western countries. IS was previously reported to have tasked Syrian recruits with conducting attacks in Western countries, while AQAP’s 14 August statement called specifically on Muslims ‘who can enter America’ to conduct retaliatory attacks. Returned Syrian jihadists represent a plausible threat in many Western countries, as demonstrated by a mass-casualty shooting in A US fighter jet sets out to Iraq from the Gulf Belgium in May.

tunisia: armed groups dismantled

The interior ministry on 7 August said that the security forces had dismantled five armed groups in the capital Tunis that had been plotting to carry out assassinations and bombings. Officials said that the security forces had arrested 21 people and that they were seeking nine others whom they also suspected of involvement. The ministry said that the groups were linked to banned Islamist organisation Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia. The ministry said that the five groups had been based in various parts of Tunis, including the Soukra and Dar Fadhal areas north of the city centre and the coastal suburbs of Raoued (where a counter-terrorism raid in February killed seven alleged militants) and Le Kram. One of the detainees was arrested as he tried to enter Libya to join Ansar al-Sharia forces there. According to the ministry, the groups’ intended targets included politicians, members of the security forces and journalists, though it did not give any details about their identities. It also did not specifically mention any foreign or business interests as having been among the group’s targets. The ministry added that the security forces, while conducting the raids, had found car bombs, detonating cords and ingredients used in the manufacture of explosive devices. The disruption of the alleged plots highlights the evolving nature of the terrorist threat to Tunisia and an uptick in militant activity. Over the past 18 months, there have been two political assassinations, two attempted suicide bombings and several police raids targeting alleged urban extremist cells. Militants based around Mount Chaambi in north-western Kasserine province near the Algerian border have also carried out numerous attacks against the security forces.

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regional spillover fears

The ability of Sunni militant group Islamic State (IS) to rapidly seize and hold territory in Iraq, combined with its ability to maintain control over significant swathes of territory along the Euphrates river, has raised concerns over the potential for violence associated with the group’s activities to spill over into neighbouring countries. The group’s declaration in June of a ‘caliphate’ (Islamic state) in eastern Syria and north-central provinces of Iraq points to the likelihood of a prolonged conflict in Iraq, and underlines the group’s intention to hold areas that it has captured while also continuing to seize territory. The declaration was significant because it highlighted IS’ belief that it had achieved its primary goals of breaking down political boundaries and establishing an Islamic state.

Militants fly the Islamic State flag in the Iraqi city of Fallujah

political turbulence

IS has been able to take advantage of political turbulence in Iraq and Syria to expand its influence in both countries. In Iraq, it has capitalised on the intensifying grievances of the country’s Sunni population, and their continued marginalisation by the Shia-led government, to make territorial advances in Sunni-majority provinces. In Syria, divisions between groups opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have hindered their shared goal of ousting Assad, and resulted in the increasing fragmentation of territorial control as fighting has escalated among various groups. IS has taken control of the northern city of Raqqa and maintains a presence in areas along the border with Turkey. Several factors have exacerbated fears of regional spillover from the Iraq and Syria crises. Firstly, IS has seized control of critical assets and infrastructure, and has been generating revenue in both Iraq and Syria by smuggling oil from oilfields and refineries under its control. In Syria, the group in early July captured the al-Omar field in Deir Ezzor province, the largest in the country. In Iraq, it overran the Akkas gas field in western Anbar province in June and has been fighting the security forces for control of the Baiji refinery in Salahaddin province. Secondly, the group has consolidated cross-border supply lines after seizing several border-crossings in Anbar in late June. Although it has opened unofficial crossings into Syria, access to official crossings ensures that it can more easily transfer weapons, cash and fighters between Syria and Iraq. The group also seized large amounts of weaponry when it captured military bases in several Iraqi cities, and has reportedly been moving some of this into Syria. Finally, IS has taken control of governance in areas under its control. Aside from overseeing the provision of basic services, it has invested in public works, and established health and welfare programmes. The group has also appointed ‘emirs’, and begun collecting taxes and paying salaries to police officers whom it has appointed.

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Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list jordan

Although Jordan’s north-eastern Mafraq governorate borders the IS stronghold of Anbar province, and the country shares a 235.5-mile (379km) border with Syria in the north, Jordan remains less susceptible to spillover from Iraq and Syria, for several reasons. Firstly, it does not have the same ethnic, religious and political divisions that have made other countries – particularly Lebanon and Iraq – more susceptible to fallout from the Syria conflict. While Lebanon and Iraq have significant Sunni, Shia and minority populations with complex political relationships, Jordan’s population is predominately Sunni Arab and its political system is not based on sectarian confession. Secondly, Jordan’s security forces remain cohesive and have a secure hold on the country’s borders with Syria and Iraq. Thirdly, Jordan has strictly limited its involvement in the Syria conflict, which has largely restricted spillover violence. Nevertheless, the country remains concerned about growth in domestic Islamist extremism stemming from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. The government in April amended its 2006 anti-terrorism law as part of efforts to minimise fallout from the conflicts, while hundreds of Jordanians have joined Islamist extremist factions in Syria, prompting fears that well-trained fighters could return to conduct attacks in their home country. Furthermore, although the kingdom has made a concerted effort to protect its borders, it has been unable to prevent sporadic security incidents from occurring in refugee camps and border regions. On 16 April, Jordanian warplanes destroyed several vehicles as they attempted to enter the country from Syria.

Lebanon

Lebanon has been far more exposed to the conflicts in Syria and Iraq than Jordan. The country’s security environment has been strained since the start of the Syrian conflict in March 2011, and Lebanon has experienced an uptick in terrorism. Unlike Jordan, the country’s political divisions largely reflect those of Syria: the March 8 alliance maintains links to Assad supporters, while the March 14 alliance supports Syria’s opposition. Furthermore, Lebanon has failed to take a regulated approach to the Syrian conflict. This has resulted in spillover violence including militant attacks, political assassinations, kidnaps and sporadic sectarian clashes in border areas with Syria. Lebanon’s security environment began to stabilise with the formation of a national unity government in February and as a result of developments in Syria: in January, troops loyal to Assad, in co-operation with Shia movement Hizbullah, made gains along Syria’s border with Lebanon west of the Damascus- Homs highway, from which Sunni militant groups had previously staged attacks in Lebanon. However, Lebanon has seen an uptick of incidents since IS’ gains in Iraq, underlying the country’s continued exposure to security threats linked to the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. The Lebanese security forces on 20 June thwarted an assassination attempt against parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, while several bombings have taken place in the capital Beirut and the Bekaa valley. IS claimed responsibility for a suicide-bomb attack on 25 June on the Duroy Hotel in central Beirut. In an online statement, the group claimed that Lebanon’s General Security Directorate was loyal to Hizbullah, which it referred to as ‘the party of Satan’. The group also threatened further violence against Shia Muslims in Lebanon, and claimed that the attack was ‘only the beginning’. Prior to this, IS claimed responsibility for a 2 January car bombing in the Haret Hreik neighbourhood of Beirut, which killed four people and injured more than 70 others. These incidents highlight IS’ intent to attack Assad supporters and the Lebanese state, and further attacks are likely. However, although the group is likely to remain a threat actor in Lebanon, capable of conducting one-off, high-impact attacks in Beirut, it is unlikely to make rapid advances into or significant territorial A car-bomb attack in Beirut in January killed four people gains in Lebanon as it has done in Iraq.

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libya Pro-Islamist militias from Misrata on 23 August reportedly seized control of Tripoli International Airport following heavy fighting with rival militia groups in the vicinity of the facility. At least 15 people were killed and 22 others were injured in the clashes, which reportedly involved rockets, tank fire and mortar shelling.

paraguay Civil society organisations and left-of-centre political parties on 15 August erected roadblocks and staged rallies in major urban centres to coincide with the first anniversary of President Horacio Cartes taking office. The events were preceded by two days of large-scale demonstrations, including blockades of key thoroughfares in the capital Asunción and the cities of Concepción, Caaguazú, Canindeyú, Caazapá and San Pedr.

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Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list norway The government on 31 July ended a terrorism alert, issued on 24 July, of an imminent attack planned by militants connected to the Syrian civil war. During the alert period, the government placed armed security personnel around high-risk targets, implemented temporary controls at its borders – which, as Norway and its neighbours are part of the border-free Schengen zone, are usually not controlled – and readied emergency helicopters to intervene in case of an attack.

pakistan The security forces on 14 August repelled simultaneous suicide, rocket and gun attacks on the Pakistan Air Force’s Samungli airbase and the Khalid Army Aviation Base on the outskirts of Quetta. Twelve militants were killed and 11 members of the security forces were injured, though military sources said that no security installations were damaged. Two factions of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP – Pakistan Taliban) claimed responsibility for the attacks.

nigeria Aroiund 480 soldiers on 25 August crossed into Cameroon’s Extreme North region – despite an official border closure by Cameroon to contain the spread of the Ebola virus – following clashes with Islamist militant group Boko Haram. The government claimed that the border crossing was a tactical manoeuvre, but media reports suggest that the troops were fleeing alongside thousands of civilians. Boko Haram on 24 August claimed that it had established an Islamic caliphate in north- eastern Nigeria following the capture of several towns and villages.

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AFRICA

Nigerian Islamist militants on 27 July kidnapped the wife of Vice Prime Minister Amadou Ali and reportedly Cameroon killed 16 people in a cross-border raid on the town of Kolofata (Extreme North region). A religious leader in the town and several other people were also kidnapped. Central African Suspected Séléka militia members between 13 and 15 August killed at least 34 civilians in and around Republic Mbrés (Nana-Grebizi region), around 248 miles (400km) north of the capital Bangui. Gunmen on 9-10 August attacked a minibus carrying a group of Christian scouts on the road between Côte d’Ivoire Toumodi and Djekanou (Lacs district), around 30 miles (50km) south of the capital Yamoussoukro. The attackers reportedly opened fire without warning, killing the driver and injuring one passenger. An unidentified attacker on 27 July threw an improvised explosive device into a church in the city of Kano Nigeria (Kano state), killing five people and injuring eight others. The same day, a female suicide bomber blew herself up in a failed attempt to kill a group of police officers. According to an estimate by a government official, at least 15 people were killed and more than 20 others Somalia were injured on 15 August when heavy clashes broke out in the capital Mogadishu between government forces supported by peacekeepers from the African Union Mission in Somalia and local militias.

AMERICAS

Three police officers were killed on 21 August in a roadside bomb and gun attack by the Revolutionary Colombia Armed Forces of Colombia leftist guerrilla group outside the city of El Bordo (Cauca department). The officers were returning to their post after providing a security escort for vehicles travelling through the area. Members of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti on 14 August used tear gas to disperse around 150 Haiti people who had gathered outside the residence of former president Bertrand Aristide in the capital Port-au- Prince to protest against a continuing criminal investigation into the former president. Three people were killed and 22 others were arrested on 15 August during protests against the Guatemala development of the Santa Ria hydroelectric project near the town of Monte Olivo ((Cobán municipality, Alta Verapaz department). The governor of Missouri state began withdrawing National Guard personnel from the Ferguson suburb of St Louis (Missouri) on 21 August, citing an improvement in the security situation following days of unrest. US The force was originally deployed on 18 August to secure a police command post while local and state police addressed protests over the police shooting of an unarmed youth on 9 August. Three people were arrested in the Baruta and Chacao areas of the capital Caracas on 25 August during Venezuela protests over issues including rising food prices and night-time closures of the border with Colombia.

ASIA

Local media on 20 August reported that authorities in the Assam-Nagaland border area in the north-east of India the country had imposed an indefinite curfew. The move followed shutdown strikes and clashes between rival tribal villagers and security forces in the town of Golaghat. Police on 21 August fired tear gas to disperse supporters of defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Indonesia Subianto during protests in the capital Jakarta. The demonstrations were staged after the Constitutional Court rejected Prabowo’s legal challenge to the results of the country’s 9 July presidential election. Supporters of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf and Pakistan Awami Tehrik political parties on 19 August marched Pakistan peacefully into the high-security ‘red zone’ in the capital Islamabad They then staged a sit-in in front of Parliament and threatened to storm the prime minister’s official residence if he did not resign. At least 19 civilians were killed and 13 others were injured on 28 July when suspected members of the Philippines Islamist militant Abu Sayyaf Group opened fire on a convoy of at least two vehicles in Talipao municipality in Sulu province (Sulu archipelago). At least four security personnel were injured on 17-18 August in separate bombings in the Yarang district of Thailand Pattani province and the Than To district of Yala province. Both incidents targeted security forces patrols.

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At least 15 soldiers were reportedly killed during clashes on 31 July-1 August between Azerbaijan’s armed Armenia/Azerbaijan forces and Armenian troops along the line of contact separating the two sides in the vicinity of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Prosecutors in the capital Vienna stated on 20 August that police in the southern province of Carinthia and Austria the western province of Burgenland had arrested nine people whom they believed were about to travel to Syria to join an Islamist extremist movement engaged in the conflict there. Police on 11 August conducted raids at around 60 locations across the country and arrested 40 people Kosovo suspected of participation in Islamist extremist activity. Two Tajik nationals, including a border guard, were reportedly killed and four civilians were injured on 25 Kyrgyzstan August during clashes between Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards on the countries’ disputed border. Ukrainian security forces on 25 August reportedly attacked Russian armoured vehicles that had crossed Ukraine into Ukraine near Mariupol (Donetsk province). The Ukrainian government said that the Russian convoy of around 50 vehicles included at least ten tanks and two armoured personnel carriers.

middle east and north africa

Gunmen on 5 August killed five police officers at a checkpoint near the coastal town of Dabaa in Matrouh Egypt governorate, between tAlexandria and the provincial capital Marsa Matrouh. The officers had stopped the gunmen on suspicion of smuggling weapons. Unidentified individuals on 3 August shot and killed a police officer guarding a post in Maan. The security Jordan forces on the same day apprehended a suspect whom they claimed had been planning to attack several members of parliament – including the speaker of the lower house. Islamist extremist group Islamic State on 24 August captured the Tabqa airbase in the north-eastern Syrian Syria province of Raqqa from government forces. Around 170 government troops and 370 IS fighters were reportedly killed in a five-day battle for control of the facility. Sixteen construction workers were injured on 10 August in an attack by suspected members of the militant Turkey Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the south-eastern province of Mus. In a separate incident in the same province, suspected PKK militants set fire to several vehicles and seized weapons from guards. Three suspected members of Sunni militant group al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) were killed on Yemen 10 August in a series of airstrikes against militant positions in eastern Hadhramaut province.

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