Renewable Energy Essentials: Hydropower

Market status Hydropower Hydropower production potential

Hydropower Renewable Energy Essentials: This potential is unevenly distributed. The five countries with the highest potential (China, United States, United (China, potential highest the with countries five The distributed. unevenly is potential This www.iea.org 1. 16than moreestimated at hydropower400 TWh1 is exploitable potential technically global The generation (Figure 2)in2008. hydropowerworld’s the of two-thirds about for accounted countries ten top the Hydropowerby generation absolute highest the with growth 1), inChina. (Figure 50% by increased has generation hydropower global 1990, Since 20.1% of gross electricityproduction. production to equal electricity 906 TWh, 1 produced global countries non-OECDfor in hydropoweraccounting production; of electricity 381 TWh, gross 12.9%of 16.3%1 reached countries to OECD in equivalentproduction Hydropower 2008. TWh, in (20 181 TWh) 288 3 produced worldwide Hydropower n n n n n 1 1 2 2 3 3 Data source: IEA Electricity Information 2010 generation between 1990 - 2008 Figure 1: Evolution of global hydropower

000 500 000 500 000 500 500 World Energy Council(WEC), Survey of Energy Resources 2007, which definesthetechnicallyexploitablepotential astheannualenergy potential of allnatural water flows whichcanbeexploitedwithin thelimits of current technology. 1990 0 hud olw n nertd prah n aaig hi wtr eore, lnig hydropower planning resources, water assessment of thebenefitsandimpacts of projects. the to their approach life-cycle full managinga take and sectors, water-using in other with co-operation in approachdevelopment integrated an follow should Countries considered.carefully be hydropowerto of need effects projects social and environmental The options forcost-effective increases ingeneration capacity. further offers 100/MWh.hydropowerprojects Upgradingplantto existing 50 USD of range a into fall The costs of power production from hydropower can vary widely depending on project details, but usually renewable sources. fluctuations demand electricity in to and match from supply sources electricity flexible less and variable Hydropower’sstorage responsecapacitycharacteristicsfast and valuablearesudden especially meet to CO energy-related in reduction 50% a publication IEA the of scenario BLUE The 16 400 TWh/yr. than more be to estimated is hydropower for potential technical overall the and 2008, in production in global part power important generation. an Worldwide plays hydropowerand produced energy 3 renewable 288 TWh,of just form over common 16%most ofthe globalcurrently electricity is Hydropower HYDROPOWER6 000 TWh in2050.

1992 TWh/yr

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

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2008 2 China Canada Brazil United R Norway India V Japan Sweden Others emissions by 2050, projects that hydro could produce up to up produce could hydro that projects 2050, by emissions enezuela ussia , which aims to achieve Technologyto 2010Energy Perspectivesaims which , States 2% Data source: IEA Electricity Information 2010 generation in 2008 Figure 2: Shares in hydropower 3% 30% 3% 3% 4% 5% 9% 18% 11% 12%

Russia, Brazil and Canada) could produce about 8 360 TWh per year, and the next five countries (DR Congo, India, Indonesia, Peru and Tajikistan) have a potential of about 2 500 TWh per year. These ten countries account for about two-thirds of the global hydropower potential.

The hydropower production and potential for the world regions and for the top five countries with the highest potential are shown in Figure 3. Data for the countries which have developed the largest proportion of their hydro potential and a production level of over 30 TWh/yr are shown in Figure 4.

Globally, around 19% of the potential has been developed. Countries which have actively developed hydropower use around 60% of their potential. Numerous other countries have a huge amount of untapped hydropower potential.

Although climate change may affect water resources and may lead to significant variations of the potential for hydropower at a country level, these variations are expected to cancel out roughly on the global scale, leaving the overall potential virtually unaffected.2

Europe (29%) Switzerland (88%) North America (25%) Mexico (80%) Latin America (21%) Africa (5%) Norway (70%) Middle East (5%) Sweden (69%) Asia and Pacific (18%) France (68%) China (24%) Japan (61%) United States (16%) Austria (54%) Russia (10%) Brazil (25%) Production Paraguay (52%) Production Canada (39%) Potential Italy (45%) Potential

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 0 50 100 150 200 250 TWh/yr TWh/yr Figure 3: Hydropower development ratio Figure 4: Countries with largest developed for world regions and top five countries with proportion of their hydro potential (countries the highest potential with hydropower production over 30 TWh/yr) Data source: WEC Survey of Energy Resources 2007, IEA Renewables Information 2010 (2008 data)

Economics Construction costs for new hydropower projects in OECD countries are usually less than USD 2 million/MW for Investment costs large scale hydro (> 300 MW), and USD 2 to 4 million/MW for small- and medium-scale hydro (< 300 MW) (Table1). The initial investment needs for particular projects must be studied individually due to the unique nature of each hydropower project. Parameters affecting investment costs and the return on investment include the project scale, which can range from over 10 000 MW to less than 0.1 MW; the project location; the presence and size of reservoir(s); the use of the power supplied for base or peak load or both; and possible other benefits alongside power production, such as flood control, irrigation, fresh water supply, etc. The way in which the project is financed is also a key factor. The capacity of many existing hydropower plants could be raised by 5 to 20%. Such refurbishment projects may be easier from a technical and social point of view, and faster and more cost effective than new plants.

Table 1. Classification of hydropower

Investment costs Category Output/unit Storage Power use (load) (USD M/MW) 1 small < 10 MW run-of-river base load 2-4 2 medium 10-100 MW run-of-river base load 2-3 3 medium 100–300 MW dam and reservoir base and peak 2-3 4 large > 300 MW dam and reservoir base and peak < 2 Data source: IEA Hydropower Implementing Agreement

Generation costs The generation costs of electricity from new hydropower plants vary widely, though they often fall into a range of USD 50 to 100/MWh. It should be noted that generation costs per MWh will be determined by the amount of electricity produced annually and that many hydropower plants are deliberately operated for

2. Hamududu and Killingtveit (2010), “Existing Studies of Hydropower and Climate Change: An Overview”, Hydropower 10, 6th International Conference on Hydropower, Tromsø, Norway.

Long-term scenarios Long-term role Hydropower’s stabilising in systems electricity Operation and and Operation costs (O&M) maintenance drivers Growth impacts Environmental System-related aspects Outlook HYDROPOWERBarriers , Vol. 30, No. 14. No. Vol. 30, , 3 Hydropower Hydropower plants can be to designed produce for electricity base or peak demand, or both. Hydropower’s quick start capability loading. system helps electricity in to fluctuations cope with Pumped-storage hydropower generates electricity to meet peak load, allowing the optimum use of other, less flexible sources, electricity such as nuclear and Pumped-storage plants. power coal-fired cost- most and largest the is hydropower storage energy form of electric effective at present. The current global capacity increase could storage pumped-hydro of tenfold as some existing hydropower plants could plants. storage pumped-hydro be transformed into 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2050 acific TWh/yr 2045 America and P Latin Asia 2040 generation 2035 power 2030 , which aims to achieve a 50% reduction reduction 50% a achieve to aims which , 2010 Perspectives Technology Energy America total Energy Policy: Special Issues: Hydropower, Society and the Environment in the 21st Century 21st the in Environment the and Society Hydropower, Issues: Special Policy: Energy in Middle East North 2025 emissions by 2050, suggests that hydropower could provide 5 749 TWh in 2050. 2 Share 2020 2015 Europe Africa 2010 Enhancing economic equity among citizens. among economic equity Enhancing droughts. floods and citizens from of and property the lives Protecting to be inundated. land of to expropriation citizens with respect Securing the rights of and biodiversity. water land, concerning air, the environment Protecting Koch F. H. (ed.) (2002, November), November), (2002, (ed.) H. F. Koch 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% development Hydropower 5: Figure scenario Map BLUE ETP in regions world for In order to implement projects hydropower in a sustainable manner, all environmental and social impacts need to be explored and anticipated early in the planning process so that appropriate steps can be taken to avoid, mitigate, or compensate for impacts. The IEA Hydropower Implementing Agreement has done Under Under this scenario, hydropower would see its share in the global electricity production from increase slightly 16.3% in 2008 to electricity in renewable of 17.3% source 2030 major a but be to continue will then Hydro 5). reduce (Figure rates faster to at grow 14.1% technologies by 2050 as other power-generation the flexibility needed to meet peaks scale, contributing to base load and providing in demand. on a global © OECD/IEA, 2010 OECD/IEA, © 3. 3. Data source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Perspectives Technology Energy source:IEA Data The BLUE Map scenario in the in scenario Map BLUE The in energy-related CO Over Over the last two of impacts decades, and benefits the decisions Analysing on hydropower. of effects many social and hydropower environmental development the about projects controversy have been electricity an affected within by hydropower of role the on deciding In consuming. time and difficult both is projects such to have makers policy energy concerns, security energy and change climate addresses which portfolio supply issues including: of consider a whole range Some or affected negatively all and positively are who of communities the of these interests The arena. competing, political the into and decisions sometimes conflicting, policy objectives bring majorby hydropower projects hydropower -- and the economic, social and environmental benefits and impacts -- need to be with projects. proceeding basis before analysed on a case-by-case carefully Climate change and Climate effects other of negative using fossil fuels for power production, along with a growing demand for energy coupled with concerns at and needs, these over meet can that power low-carbon energy of source established well a is security, Hydro are energy. of sources driving the expansion of renewable sources. renewable electricity from of source largest is the present Operation Operation and maintenance costs are estimated at between USD 5 to 20/MWh for new medium to large hydro. as much for small twice and approximately plants, hydro peak load demands and back-up for frequency fluctuation, so pushing up both the marginal generation costs costs generation marginal the both up pushing so fluctuation, frequency for back-up and demands load peak depreciation the with associated is cost generation the of most As produced. electricity the of value the and of fixed assets, the generation cost decreases if the projected plant lifetime is extended. Manyhydropower today. efficiently operate and still years fully amortised ago are to 100 built 50 plants Technology status and development technology advances and social impacts Public acceptance Run-of-river schemes Carbon balance technology and Environmental of hydropower R&D priorities Storage schemes Pumped storage Hydropower in reservoir Lifetime automation, remotesystems, i.e. control and diagnostics. IT into directed also is R&D materials. new and processes manufacturing advanced design, dynamics fluid computational through longevity efficiency, and higher reliability for striving aremanufacturers Equipment of cost low the to contribute which plants yearsofexperience. electricity from hydropower. of lifetime hundred a extend than more readily on can based refurbishment and Upgrades ofelectricity source and reliable flexible efficient, Many hydropower plants built 50 to 100 years ago are still operating today. 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