ENERGY SLIDESHOW
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Updated: September 9, 2021 ENERGY PRICES
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy Brent &WTI WTI & Crude Brent Oil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel Brent (Sep 3 = $73.02) WTI (Sep 3 = $69.15) 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 9/3/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration. HenryHenry HubHub Natural & Marcellus Gas Natural Gas Dollars per million Henry Hub (Sep 3 = $4.49) Marcellus (Sep 3 = $3.57) British thermal units 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 9/3/21. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal. RetailRegular Gasoline Gasoline & Diesel& Highway Diesel
Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 $3.07 $3.33 1A $3.09 $3.29 1B $3.22 $3.48 1C $2.96 $3.24 2 $3.05 $3.28 3 $2.83 $3.10 4 $3.65 $3.65 5 $3.93 $4.02 U.S. $3.18 $3.37
NOTES: Prices are for 9/9/21. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GLOBAL PETROLEUM
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy WorldWorld Oil SupplyOil Supply & Demand & Demand
Million barrels per day 104 Q2 102 2021 100 96.5 98 96 94 World 92 consumption 94.8 90 88 World 86 production 84 82 80 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. WorldImplied Oil Change Supply in & World Demand Oil Stocks
Million barrels per day 8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. OPECOPEC Oil Production Crude Oil Production & Rig Count
Million barrels per day 33.0 32.0 31.0 30.0 Aug 29.0 26.78 28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. OECDOECD Commercial Commercial Inventories Oil Inventories
Million barrels 3,300
3,200
3,100 Aug 2830 3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700 2010-2014 average 2,600
2,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. OECDWorld Commercial Oil Production Inventories Outages
Million barrels per day 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Aug 2.5 2.45 2.0 1.5 OPEC
1.0 Non-OPEC 0.70 0.5 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. NATIONAL OUTLOOK
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy U.S. OilU.S. Production Oil & Gas Production& Rig Count
U.S. crude oil production U.S. natural gas production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 14 120 13 110 12 100 11 90 10 9 80 8 70 7 60 6 50 5 40 4 30 3 2 20 1 10 0 0 1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. U.S.U.S. Oil Oil Production Production & &Rig Rig Count Count
U.S. crude oil production U.S. oil rig count Million barrels per day Number of active rigs 17 1,700
15 1,500 Jun 1,300 13 11.0 1,100 11 900 9 700 Aug 7 410 500
5 300
3 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 9/8/21. Rig count Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration. GasolineU.S. OilDemand & Gas Employment
Number of jobs (thousands) 340
Support activities 300 for oil and gas operations
260
220 Jul 206.5
180 Oil and gas extraction Aug 140 139.0
100 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. CrudeCommercial Oil & Product Crude Oil Inventories Inventories
Million barrels 2015-2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 600
550
500
450
400 Jun Jul Aug 448 439 425 350
300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/1/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineNatural Demand Gas Inventories
Trillion cubic feet 2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 4.5 Aug 4.0 Jul 2.87 Jun 2.73 3.5 2.58
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/2/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineGasoline Demand Inventories
Trillion cubic feet 2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 270
260
250
240
230
220 Jun Aug Jul 232 227 210 229
200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/1/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineDistillate Demand Inventories
Trillion cubic feet 2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 190
180
170
160 Jul 150 Jun 139 138 140
130 Aug 120 137
110
100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 9/1/21. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. GasolineVehicle Demand Miles Traveled Billion miles traveled 290 Jun 273 270
250
230
210
190
170
150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration. GasolineGasoline Demand Consumption
Million barrels per day 2015-2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021 10.2 Jun Jul 9.8 9.27 9.54 9.4 Aug 9.0 9.48 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NOTES: Square marks are based on averages of weekly data. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. REGIONAL ACTIVITY
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy TexasTexas Oil Production Oil & Gas Production& Rig Count
Texas crude oil production Texas natural gas production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 6.0 40 5.5 35 5.0 4.5 30 4.0 3.5 25 3.0 20 2.5 2.0 15 1.5 1.0 10 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. TexasTexas Oil Oil Production Production & &Rig Rig Count Count
Texas crude oil production Texas rig count Million barrels per day Number of active rigs 9.5 1000
8.5 900
7.5 800 700 6.5 600 5.5 Jun 4.79 500 4.5 400 Aug 3.5 232 300 2.5 200 1.5 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration. TexasTexas Mining Oil &Sector Gas EmploymentEmployment
Number of jobs (thousands) 210
190
170 Support activities 150 for mining
130 Oil and gas extraction Jun 110 102.6 90
70 61.3 50 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TexasDrilled Mining but SectorUncompleted Employment Wells
Number of wells 6,000 U.S. basins excluding Permian Basin 5,000
4,000 Jul 3668 3,000 Permian Basin 2289 2,000
1,000
0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. TexasWell Mining Completions Sector Employment by Basin
Number of wells 700
600
500
400 Permian Basin
300 Appalachia Eagle Ford 200 Niobrara Haynesville 100 Anadarko Bakken 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. Crude Oil Production by Region
NOTES: Change in total rigs from 8/28/2020 to 8/27/2021. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Crude Oil Production by Region
NOTES: Change in total rigs from 5/28/2021 to 8/27/2021. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas SOURCE: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Crude Oil Production by Region
Million barrels per day 6.0
5.0 Permian Basin 4.0
3.0
2.0 Bakken Eagle Ford 1.0 Niobrara Anadarko Other areas 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Series depict production estimates through September 2021. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas “Other areas” include Haynesville and Marcellus. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Production by Region
Billion cubic feet per day 40
35 Appalachia
30
25
20 Permian Basin 15 Haynesville 10 Other areas Anadarko 5 Eagle Ford
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NOTES: Series depict production estimates through September 2021. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas “Other areas” include Niobrara and Bakken. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. Energy Survey Business Activity
In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased?
Diffusion index 100 80 53.6 53.0 60 44.5 43.3 37.3 38.1 40.7 40 27.3 18.5 20 41.8 2.3 10.8 -0.6 -4.2 -6.6 0 -7.4 -20 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 -40 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 -60 -50.9 -80 -66.1 -100 NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Breakeven Prices for New Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel Other US Permian Other US (Non-shale) (Other) (Shale) 90 Permian Permian 80 (Midland) (Delaware) 70 Eagle Ford $58 60 $53 $53 $49 50 $46 $46 40 30 20 10 0 20 6 18 50 23 18 Number of responses
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 92 E&P firms answered this question from March 10-18, 2021. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? Dollars per barrel 80 Other US 70 Permian Permian (Nonshale) (Midland) (Other) Other US 60 (Shale) Permian 50 (Delaware) 40 Eagle Ford $33 $33 $34 30 $26 $27 20 $17 10 0 6 19 20 23 18 50 Number of responses NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 95 E&P firms answered this question from March 10-18, 2021. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Additional Resources
• Energy Indicators
– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector
• Dallas Fed Energy Survey
– A quarterly assessment of energy activity of about 200 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District
• Energy in the 11th District
– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin
• Other energy articles and research
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