THREE ESSAYS ON THE ECONOMICS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CITRUS INDUSTRY By JEAN-PAUL BALDWIN A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2013 1 © 2013 Jean-Paul Baldwin 2 To my family and loved ones 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Thomas H. Spreen, for his mentoring and encouragement in accomplishing my research objectives. His wealth of knowledge in citrus and economics has instilled much confidence in me while throughout my doctorate degree. I am also grateful to other members of my supervisory committee: Dr. Zhifeng Gao, Dr. James Sterns, Dr. Richard Weldon and Prof. Linda Young. I would like to give special mention to Dr. James Sterns for his excellent mentoring in helping me understand institutional economics, as well as Dr. Zhifeng Gao who provided a great deal of guidance in building import demand models. I would also like to thank Mr. Peter Turner from Biogold for making my research in South Africa possible. His assistance in setting up interviews with producers, researcher, and exporters within the South African citrus industry proved invaluable during this study. Additionally, I would like to thank the Food and Resource Economics Department at the University of Florida for providing me with an excellent educational experience. Any future success as an econometrician is directly related to this learning environment. Lastly, I would like to thank my parents who have always encouraged me to follow my dreams, and Barbara for the love and patience she provided during my educational tenure at the University of Florida. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 11 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 15 The South African Citrus Industry ........................................................................... 15 Aim and Scope ....................................................................................................... 18 2 THE SOUTH AFRICAN CITRUS INDUSTRY PRE AND POSTDEREGULATION: A STRUCTURE, CONDUCT, AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 20 Introductory Statements .......................................................................................... 20 Structure ................................................................................................................. 20 Export Channel and Organizations ................................................................... 20 Growers, Nurseries, Packers and Shippers...................................................... 24 Hectares Production and Growing Regions ...................................................... 25 Packing Systems .............................................................................................. 26 Technology ....................................................................................................... 27 Funding ............................................................................................................ 28 Natural Endowments ........................................................................................ 29 Business Climate .............................................................................................. 30 Barriers to Trade .............................................................................................. 30 Conduct .................................................................................................................. 33 Domestic Consumption .................................................................................... 33 Pricing and Marketing ....................................................................................... 33 Labor and Land Issues ..................................................................................... 35 Shipping and Logistics ..................................................................................... 37 New Plantings .................................................................................................. 39 Performance ........................................................................................................... 40 Market Share .................................................................................................... 40 Major Export Markets by Volume ..................................................................... 41 Production ........................................................................................................ 42 Gross Value ...................................................................................................... 43 Export Percentage of Total Production ............................................................. 43 Concluding Statements .................................................................................... 44 5 3 THE EXPORT MARKET FOR FRESH SOUTH AFRICAN CITRUS ....................... 63 Introductory Statements .......................................................................................... 63 Literature Review .................................................................................................... 64 Model Specification ................................................................................................. 66 Results .................................................................................................................... 71 U.S Dollar ......................................................................................................... 71 Oranges ..................................................................................................... 72 Mandarins .................................................................................................. 72 Grapefruit ................................................................................................... 73 Lemons ...................................................................................................... 74 European Euro ................................................................................................. 74 Europe ....................................................................................................... 75 Oranges ..................................................................................................... 75 Mandarins .................................................................................................. 76 Grapefruit ................................................................................................... 76 Lemons ...................................................................................................... 77 Optimal Allocation across Export Markets .............................................................. 77 Oranges............................................................................................................ 80 Mandarins ......................................................................................................... 81 Grapefruit ......................................................................................................... 81 Lemons and Limes ........................................................................................... 81 Concluding Statements ........................................................................................... 82 4 VERTICAL INTERGRATION OF FOREIGN RETAILERS WITHIN THE SOUTH AFRICAN CITRUS INDUSTRY .............................................................................. 90 Introductory Statements .......................................................................................... 90 Problem Statement ................................................................................................. 90 Objectives ............................................................................................................... 91 New Institutional Economics ................................................................................... 92 UK Retailers ............................................................................................................ 96 Major Supply Channels ........................................................................................... 98 The Industry Responds ......................................................................................... 102 Concluding Statements ......................................................................................... 108 5 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................... 115 Limitations of the Research .................................................................................. 118 Future Area of Research ......................................................................................