Enhanced Biosecurity risk analysis tools CRC For National Plant Biosecurity Project Number: MT06032 MT06032 This report is published by Horticulture Australia Ltd to pass on information concerning horticultural research and development undertaken for the apple and pear, potato and vegetable industries. The research contained in this report was funded by Horticulture Australia Ltd with the financial support of the apple and pear, potato and vegetable industries. All expressions of opinion are not to be regarded as expressing the opinion of Horticulture Australia Ltd or any authority of the Australian Government. The Company and the Australian Government accept no responsibility for any of the opinions or the accuracy of the information contained in this report and readers should rely upon their own enquiries in making decisions concerning their own interests. ISBN 0 7341 2279 9 Published and distributed by: Horticulture Australia Ltd Level 7 179 Elizabeth Street Sydney NSW 2000 Telephone: (02) 8295 2300 Fax: (02) 8295 2399 © Copyright 2010 Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity Final Report CRC10010 Enhanced Risk Analysis Tools Authors David C. Cook, Michael Hurley, Shuang Liu, Abu-Baker M. Siddique, Kim E. Lowell and Art Diggle 31 March 2010 © Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity All rights reserved Project Leader contact details: Name: David Cook Address: CSIRO Entomology, Clunies Ross St, Acton, ACT 2601 Phone: +61 2 6246 4093 Fax: +61 2 6246 4000 Email: [email protected] CRCNPB contact details: Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity LPO Box 5012 Bruce ACT 5012 Phone: +61 (0)2 6201 2882 Fax: +61 (0)2 6201 5067 Email: [email protected] Web: www.crcplantbiosecurity.com.au Table of contents 1. Executive Summary .......................................................................................8 2. Aims and objectives .......................................................................................9 3. Key findings ............................................................................................... 11 3.1. Methodological Review ........................................................................... 12 3.1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 13 3.1.2. Three problems in current biosecurity economics research .................................. 14 3.1.3. Solutions in biosecurity economics research ...................................................... 18 3.1.4. Non-market valuation tools for estimating impacts on ecosystem services ................................................................................................................. 24 3.1.5. System modelling and incorporating uncertainty ................................................ 27 3.1.6. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) ....................... 29 3.2. The Need for Decision Facilitation ............................................................ 31 3.3. An Introduction to Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis..................................... 32 3.3.1. Decision-making and associated human behaviours ............................................ 32 3.3.2. The requirement for policy decision support ...................................................... 32 3.4. Form and Extent of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis ................................... 34 3.4.1. Background ................................................................................................... 34 3.4.2. Purpose and objectives of MCDA ...................................................................... 35 3.4.3. Characteristics and processes of MCDA ............................................................. 35 3.4.4. Software selection .......................................................................................... 36 3.4.5. Group dynamics and communication issues ....................................................... 37 3.4.6. Group choice shift .......................................................................................... 38 3.5. Form and extent of deliberative participatory decision-making frameworks .. 41 3.5.1. Background of deliberative participatory approaches .......................................... 41 3.5.2. Application of citizens’ jury to environmental issues ........................................... 42 3.5.3. The participatory approach .............................................................................. 42 3.5.4. An overview of participatory approach types...................................................... 43 3.6. Prioritising Emergency Plant Pest Risk with the use of Deliberative Multi- Criteria Evaluation ............................................................................................... 45 3.6.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 45 3.6.2. Steps of the Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation Approach ................................ 46 3.7. Conceptual Framework for the Bioeconomic Model .................................... 50 3.8. Bioeconomic model structure and function ............................................... 54 3.8.1. Overview ...................................................................................................... 55 3.8.2. Infestation .................................................................................................... 59 3.8.3. Management ................................................................................................. 61 3.8.4 Economic costs ............................................................................................... 62 3.8.5. User interface ................................................................................................ 66 3.9. Quantitative impact simulation results ..................................................... 69 3.9.1. Apple ............................................................................................................ 72 3.9.2. Pear ............................................................................................................. 74 3.9.3. Potato .......................................................................................................... 76 3.9.4. Broccoli ........................................................................................................ 77 3.9.9. Sensitivity analysis ......................................................................................... 82 3.10. Application of Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation to Emergency Plant Pest prioritisation ....................................................................................................... 90 3.10.1. Preparation and the Expert Reference Panel .................................................... 92 3.10.2. Stakeholder Analysis .................................................................................... 93 3.10.3. EPP Selection ............................................................................................... 94 3.10.4. Criteria Selection .......................................................................................... 96 3.10.5. Criteria Definitions ........................................................................................ 97 3.10.6. Assessment of the EPP options and the impact matrix ....................................... 98 3.10.7. Results ..................................................................................................... 100 4. Implications for stakeholders ...................................................................... 112 4.1. The bioeconomic modelling framework .................................................. 112 4.2. Deliberative multi-criteria evaluation ..................................................... 113 4.3. Are future societal trends going to change EPP risk substantially? ............. 113 4.4. How can policy makers use this study? .................................................. 113 5. Recommendations ..................................................................................... 115 6. Abbreviations/glossary ............................................................................... 117 7. Plain English website summary ................................................................... 119 8. References ............................................................................................... 121 9. Appendix 1 – Bioeconomic Model Parameters ................................................ 131 10. Appendix 2 – Threat Data Sheets ................................................................ 134 Tables Table 1. Examples of negative impacts associated with the black wattle invasion (de Wit, Crookes et al. 2001). .............................................................................................. 14 Table 2. Summary of 55-year values lost to Tamarix (0% discount rate) (Zavaleta 2000) ............................................................................................................................ 21 Table 3. Examples of impacts of invasion on ecosystem services ................................ 22 Table 4. Participatory methods broadly divided into categories of stakeholder, general public or the involvement of both groups (Rauschmayer and Wittmer 2006). ................. 42 Table 5. Stakeholder analysis scoring table ..............................................................