Overview of the use and management of water resources in Central Asia A discussion document May 2020 GREEN ACTION TASK FORCE Overview of the use and management of water resources in Central Asia A discussion document GREEN ACTION TASK FORCE The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. This document benefited from funding from the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany. Photo credits: ©Shutterstock/ Lukas Bischoff Photograph 3 Table of contents Abbreviations and acronyms 6 Introduction 7 1 Central Asia 9 General description 9 Socio-economic characteristics 9 Strategic priorities of country development 13 Geopolitics and integration processes 14 2 Water Resources in Central Asia 17 Formation of water 17 Climate change and water resources 23 3 Water Use and Flow Regulation 24 Total water withdrawal and available water supply 24 Drinking and household water supply 27 Irrigated agriculture and its water consumption 29 Industry 32 Hydropower 32 River flow regulation 33 Ecosystem water demand 35 4 Environmental Matters Related to Water 37 Aral Sea and Prearalie 37 Land reclamation and collector-drainage water management 38 Water quality 42 Environmental problems in runoff formation area 46 5 Water Management at National Level 47 Legal framework and degree of implementation of IWRM and water conservation 49 Water management organizations 50 Inter-sectoral relationships and stakeholder involvement 52 Irrigation service fees 52 Human resources 54 Research and design framework of water management 56 Water information systems in Central Asia 57 OVERVIEW OF THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA © OECD 2020 4 6 Water Management at Interstate Level 60 Legal framework 60 Institutional framework 61 Collaboration of regional water and environmental organizations 64 7 International Assistance and Aral Sea Basin Programs 66 Projects impact 68 8 Performance Review of Water Management System in the Aral Sea Basin 70 9 Future Water Outlook of Central Asia 82 Threats of climate change 82 Key factors of water demand growth in the Aral Sea Basin 84 Future water outlook in key basins of Kazakhstan outside the Aral Sea basin 86 10 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE FUTURE: Measures for sustainable water security in Central Asia 89 Degree of implementation of recommendations from the “Fundamental Provisions of Water Management Strategy in the Aral Sea Basin” (1998) and the 2001 Diagnostic Report 89 Measures for sustainable water security in CA 89 Conclusions 100 References 102 FIGURES Figure 1.1. Population dynamics in Central Asia 10 Figure 1.2. Dynamics of agricultural employment in the Aral Sea Basin 11 Figure 2.1. Hydrographic scheme of the Aral Sea basin 17 Figure 2.2. Schematic map of interstate river basins located in the territories of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan 18 Figure 3.1. Dynamics of total water withdrawal in ASB over 2000-2017 (km3/year) 25 Figure 3.2. Open-channel losses along the Amu Darya River, Mm3/year 26 Figure 3.3. Dynamics of annual water use in the household sector (Mm3) against population growth (million persons) in ASB 28 Figure 3.4. Dynamics of unit water use in the household sector in ASB countries (m3 per person a year) 29 Figure 3.5. Planned increase in irrigated area in Kazakhstan by 2040 31 Figure 3.6. Instability of water supply to the Amu Darya Delta 36 Figure 4.1. Dynamics of return water generation and distribution in the Aral Sea basin, Mm3 (2000-2017) 41 Figure 5.1. Linear scheme of the Amu Darya 47 Figure 5.2. Linear scheme of the Syr Darya 48 Figure 8.1. Energy losses through idle discharges from Nurek HPS in 2014 75 Figure 8.2. Dynamics of available water supply by province in Uzbekistan 77 Figure 8.3. Dynamics of water use efficiency by province in Uzbekistan 78 Figure 8.4. Dynamics of available water supply by province in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan 79 Figure 8.5. Dynamics of water use efficiency by province in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan 79 Figure 9.1. Shortening of early cotton growing season in the Amu Darya River Basin (days) 84 Figure 9.2. Comparison of water demand and water availability in ASB, Mm3 86 Figure 10.1. Dynamics of irrigated land use in Uzbekistan, based on processed RS-data by WUEMoCA 92 OVERVIEW OF THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA © OECD 2020 5 TABLES Table 1.1. Comparative indicators of the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan (2018) 12 Table 1.2. Specific indicators of water, land, and energy use in CA and Afghanistan, Mm3 (2018) 13 Table 2.1. Assessment of river runoff in ASB: changes occurred since 2000 19 Table 2.2. Characteristics of hydrological basins in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (outside ASB), km3/year 19 Table 2.3. Groundwater stock and its use by CA countries (Mm3/year) against 2000 21 Table 2.4. Distribution of return water in ASB over 2000-2017 22 Table 3.1. Data on water withdrawal and water consumption in the Aral Sea basin (comparison of 2002 and 2018) 24 Table 3.2. Drinking and household water supply in CA countries (2016) 27 Table 3.3. Industrial production in CA countries (2002, 2018), $ million 32 Table 3.4. Large reservoirs in CA countries 34 Table 4.1. Comparison of open water surface and wetland areas within the Large Aral Sea (2010-2019), thousand ha 38 Table 4.2. Characteristics of land fund in the Aral Sea basin countries 39 Table 4.3. Water quality observation points on large interstate rivers in CA 44 Table 4.4. Dynamics of average long-term water salinity in the Amu Darya River by gauging station, g/l 45 Table 4.5. Water salinity in the Syr Darya River by gauging station, g/l 45 Table 5.1. Governance and management bodies at different water hierarchical levels in CA 51 Table 5.2. Tariff rates for irrigation services in Central Asia countries (2019) 53 Table 8.1. Water balance of the Fergana Valley (example for 2001-2002) 71 Table 8.2. Average deviations of actual water withdrawals from ICWC’s plans set for growing seasons 2000- 2018 (%) 73 Table 8.3. Evenness in distribution of flow during the growing season in the Aral Sea Basin for representative, in terms of flow conditions, years 74 Table 8.4. Unit generation (G) and consumption (С) of electric energy in CA countries in 2000 and 2017 80 Table 8.5. Characteristics of water-user sectors 81 Table 9.1. Dynamics of flow variability in large rivers of ASB 83 Table 9.2. Population forecast in CA countries within ASB by 2045 (million) 84 Table 9.3. Forecast of changes in GDP structure in CA countries by 2030 85 Table 9.4. Water demands of economic sectors in Kazakhstan in the future (up to 2040) by water source, outside ASB, Mm3 88 Table 10.1. Performance indicators of planned HPS’ along the Panj River 93 Table 10.2. Anticipated personnel needs of water sectors in CA countries by 2035-2040 97 OVERVIEW OF THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA © OECD 2020 6 Abbreviations and acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank ASB Aral Sea Basin ASBP Aral Sea Basin Program BISA Basin Irrigation System Authority BWO Basin Water Organization CA Central Asia CAREC Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia CAREC Program Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization CWPI Complex Water Pollution Index CWUC Comprehensive Water Use and Conservation EU European Union EurAzEC EuroAsian Economic Community FAO UN Food and Agricultural Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GIZ German Society for International Cooperation ICWC CA Interstate Commission for Water Coordination in Central Asia IFAS International Fund for saving the Aral Sea IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PEER Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SDC Swiss Development and Cooperation SIC ICWC Scientific-Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination SPECA Special Program for the Central Asian countries UN United Nations UNDP UN Development Program UNECE UN Economic Commission for Europe UNESCAP UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNRCCA United Nations Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia WB World Bank WUA/WCA Water User/Consumer Association WUEMoCA Water Use Efficiency Monitor in Central Asia XUAR Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region OVERVIEW OF THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA © OECD 2020 7 Introduction This diagnostic report provides an overview of the use and management of water resources in Central Asia over the period from 1998 to 2019. The previous diagnostic study was conducted within the framework of the United Nations Special Programme for the Economies of Central Asia (SPECA) in 2001, mainly building on materials provided by SIC ICWC and representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The 2001 Diagnostic Report aimed at jointly developing a regional strategy for the rational and efficient use of water and energy resources.1 Although the Executive Committee of the Interstate Council for the Aral Sea Problems (forbearer of IFAS) developed with the World Bank’s support “Fundamental Provisions of Water Management Strategy in the Aral Sea Basin”2 in 1998, and the Board of Interstate Fund of saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) have approved “Main objectives and focus areas of the rational water use strategy”3 , UNECE and UNESCAP hoped that recommendations of that diagnostic study would contribute to a joint strategy of efficient water and energy use.