POLICY BRIEF Rising democracies, burden-sharing, and the international liberal order Ted Piccone Amid an erosion of leadership among established democracies, rising democratic powers—though saddled with their own problems at home—should be ready to step up on the international stage. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A close look at the evolution of these six middle power democracies reveals a turning away from The international liberal order based on collectively more ambitious goals of regional and global securing peace, promoting development, and influence. In Brazil and South Africa, the traditional protecting human rights is facing a major stress test. political order has nearly collapsed under the With the decline of U.S. leadership, a weakening weight of revelations of deep structural corruption Europe, and the rise of authoritarian China and Russia, and economic downturns. Mexico’s foreign policy is the future of the liberal order depends on newer returning to its traditional noninterventionism as it democratic powers picking up the slack. Leading struggles to maintain equilibrium in the face of direct players such as India, Brazil, South Africa, the Republic challenges to its trade and migration relationship of Korea, Indonesia, and Mexico are capable of playing with the United States and escalating violence and a more active role to sustain a global cooperation corruption. South Korea, after weathering a major agenda favoring open democratic societies. Many constitutional crisis that led to the jailing of former of these countries, however, face significant political President Park Geun-hye, is consumed by the threat and economic challenges of their own. If geopolitical of war on the Korean Peninsula. Indonesia is coping competition intensifies, they may choose to sit on with a more muscular version of political Islam the fence or accept lowest common denominator and a retrenchment in its regional ambitions. Only outcomes for the sake of avoiding outright economic India, which also has chosen a more nationalist and or military conflict. Liberal democracy and human populist approach to governing at home, is raising rights, in this scenario, will erode further. 1 DEMOCRACY & DISORDER RISING DEMOCRACIES, BURDEN-SHARING, AND THE INTERNATIONAL LIBERAL ORDER its foreign policy game, for example by contesting among the world’s great powers have on these China in the Indo-Pacific. rising democracies’ interest in sharing the burden of defending the international liberal order? Middle power democracies, like the six reviewed in this essay, have a potentially positive role After an earlier period of more ambitious to play if they can revive their once promising expectations of regional if not global leadership, paths to sustainable democratic development. leaders of these six middle power democracies in As they have mostly benefited from the upside of the last five years have mostly steered away from a economic globalization and democratization, they more activist role internationally. In Brazil and South should also become more responsible stewards Africa, the traditional political order has nearly and shapers of our interdependent system. They collapsed under the weight of revelations of deep now need to step up and share the burden of structural corruption and economic downturns. managing a more multipolar world that aligns Mexico, under its new populist president, is tackling with their own democratic values and interests. its massive domestic challenges in ways that They can do so by contributing more resources reinforce nationalist and strongman tendencies. to international institutions that uphold universal South Korea, having survived a major constitutional values and protect the global commons, support crisis that led to the jailing of former President implementation of the Sustainable Development Park Geun-hye, is distracted by the threat of war Goals, defend civil society and independent media on the Korean Peninsula. Indonesia enters an from growing attacks on their work, build cross- important year that will test its ability to cope with a regional coalitions to block the growing trend more muscular version of political Islam and amid toward zero-sum nationalism, and proactively share retrenchment in its regional ambitions. Only Prime the burden of good global governance. Minister Narendra Modi’s India, which also has chosen a more nationalist and populist approach INTRODUCTION to governing at home, is stretching its ambitions, for example by contesting China in the Indo-Pacific. With the decline of U.S. leadership, a weakening Europe, and the rise of authoritarian China and This policy brief will take an updated look2 at how Russia, the international liberal order is facing a these middle power democracies are performing serious stress test. Middle power democracies in the context of an emerging great-power contest such as India, Brazil, South Africa, the Republic for global leadership. It will consider how their of Korea, Indonesia, and Mexico, which together democratic governance challenges and economic represent 27 percent of the world’s population,1 are interests shape their respective foreign policies and capable of playing a more active role in shoring up activism on liberal order issues. It will then provide the liberal order’s shaky pillars. A more concerted recommendations on how best they could engage effort by these countries, along with more as partners for sharing the burden of sustaining the established middle powers in Europe, Canada, international liberal order. Australia, and Japan, could provide the backbone necessary to sustain the international agenda HOW ARE MIDDLE POWER DEMOCRACIES on human rights, sustainable development, and DOING? cooperative security. But are they willing to play that role given their own internal political and economic Domestic performance challenges posed by their populations’ demands After two decades of impressive progress on both for improved governance and standards of living? the political and economic fronts, six middle power And what effect will the intensifying competition democracies from around the world—India, Brazil, 2 DEMOCRACY & DISORDER RISING DEMOCRACIES, BURDEN-SHARING, AND THE INTERNATIONAL LIBERAL ORDER South Africa, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, and Widodo, or “Jokowi,” Indonesia has faced rising Mexico—raised expectations in the established Islamist radicalization and underperformed on West that they could become constructive players its once-promising leadership role in Southeast in the emerging multipolar world system. More Asia and the Islamic world as the world’s fourth- recently, however, their performance as liberalizing largest democracy. Only South Korea has continued exemplars has fallen short of those expectations. the course of strengthening liberal democracy, Turkey, for example, has fallen so far from the including weathering a presidential impeachment democratic fold that it can no longer fairly be included and criminal trial, while simultaneously pursuing a in this grouping. The timing of their backsliding negotiated peace with its nuclear-armed neighbor behavior couldn’t be worse: The United States to the north. under Donald Trump and a worrisome number of European societies are facing their own crises of On the economic and sustainable development liberal democratic governance. Moreover, populist fronts, these six present a mixed picture. India and nationalist leaders are unabashedly contesting stands out with the best economic performance of fundamental assumptions of international peace the group in terms of both gross domestic product and security founded on shared democratic (GDP) and year-over-year growth, while South interests and values that have facilitated relative Africa presents a slow growth rate and the lowest 6 peace since World War II. GDP of the six countries. Brazil’s economy, after impressive growth rates in the 2000s, is mainly According to a number of indices, the quality of stagnant after suffering a major recession between democratic governance, respect for human rights, 2014 and 2017. In terms of tackling inequality, and the rule of law have declined over the last two South Korea is the highest performing country in years in all six middle power democracies except for the group with a Gini Index score of 31.6 out of 100. South Korea.3 Brazil’s ongoing struggle to overcome The most unequal country is South Africa with a decades of entrenched corruption, combined score of 63, followed by Brazil with 51.3 and Mexico with economic malaise, high rates of crime, with 43.4.7 Together, they are heavily invested in the and worsening poverty, have led to historically international trading regime, particularly with China. low rates of approval of current political leaders and parties4 and opened the door to populist A preliminary analysis of each country’s progress nationalism and calls for a return to military rule. in achieving the United Nations Sustainable A similar phenomenon in Mexico has resulted in Development Goals (SDGs) shows that South the first election of a left-wing populist in Mexico’s Korea and Brazil have made the greatest advances. democratic history and a likely return to economic All but South Africa score highly with regard to nationalism. Both countries, among the 20 most fighting poverty, for example, but performance is murderous in the world, are struggling to deliver uneven. Mexico is losing ground in the fight against public security to their citizens.5 South Africa’s crisis inequality and Brazil