Burma Burma’s 2015 Elections and the Briefing 2008 Constitution No. 41 October 2015 Introduction After the election, regardless of No. 1 Elections due on 8th November are obviously who wins: July 2010 significant, but they are unlikely to be the major turning point in a transition to democracy that • Military appoint Home Affairs Minister, many hope for or have talked them up to be. controlling police, security services and Rather, they will be another step in the military’s much of the justice system. So there could carefully planned transition from direct military rule still be political prisoners. and pariah status to a hybrid military and civilian government which is accepted by the international • Military are not under government or community and sections of Burmese society. Parliamentary control, so they could continue attacks in ethnic states, and use Burma’s 2008 Constitution is designed to present of rape as a weapon of war. the appearance of democracy, while maintaining ultimate military control. It is also specifically • 25% of seats in Parliament reserved for designed for the eventuality of the National League the military ensures a military veto over for Democracy (NLD) winning elections and forming constitutional democratic reforms. a government, without this being a threat to military control. They were not prepared, however, to risk • Military dominated National Defense having Aung San Suu Kyi, the most popular and and Security Council more powerful than influential politician in Burma, head that government. parliament or government. Clauses were put in the Constitution to prevent this. • Military have constitutional right to retake A government which is predominantly made up direct control of government. of genuine civilians, which is largely, if indirectly, chosen by citizens, and which has some level of • Military have direct and indirect control accountability to its citizens, will be an improvement over huge proportion of Burma’s economy. over direct military rule or a military backed government packed full of former generals. But even if the NLD does win the election and Another key factor often overlooked is that these forms a government, the Constitution ensures it are Parliamentary elections, but Burma has a will be severely hamstrung, and unable to deliver Presidential form of government. Once Parliament fundamental democratic reforms which reduce the chooses a President, the President and government control of the military over every level of Burmese are independent of and not accountable to politics and the economy. Parliament on almost all their policies and actions. The people of Burma can’t directly vote for the government they want. Comment, briefing & analysis from Burma Campaign UK The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development reform process. Personal reputations are at stake. Party will be hoping that the various tactics it has For them, it is vital that there is a perception that the employed to weaken and divide the NLD and other election went smoothly. Therefore, they are likely opposition parties in the run up to the election, to focus on the process of voting on the day, rather combined with seats reserved for the military, may than the Constitution, laws and myriad other tactics allow it to win the election. However, the military are which mean the election has been neither free, fair, not counting on that. An NLD victory does not mean credible, inclusive or transparent. an end to military control. The expected NLD victory will give the impression Not Free and Fair that Burma has finally achieved a transition to democracy. The military drafted 2008 Constitution is The boat sailed on Burma’s elections being free, designed to give that impression. fair, transparent, inclusive and credible a long time ago. The election on 8th November was never going It’s all in the Constitution to be free and fair. Under the 2008 Constitution that would be impossible. By the start of this year it was “Myanmar cannot be said to have genuine also clear that a whole range of other laws, rules democracy until the 2008 Constitution is and tactics, many dirty, would be employed which amended and Parliament is fully elected by would impact opposition parties. The international the people.” community quietly dropped language about free and fair elections. Statement by 257 organisations and networks in Burma, 17th October 2014.1 In its place came language about the elections being credible, inclusive and transparent. How elections that are not free and fair could be credible was The 2008 Constitution is often treated as a historical never defined. Nor was what a transparent election document. It is not. Numerous studies and reports would look like, but this was assumed to refer to attempting to analyse and explain events in Burma the counting of votes, following ballot boxes being since 2010 see it as a document from a past regime, stuffed with advance votes of dubious origin for the rather than it being the generals’ plan for the future. pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party in the rigged 2010 election. Convoluted theories and explanations for the reform process are put forward despite the fact that Inclusive elections are also impossible under current for the very first time the generals actually wrote conditions, with an estimated 20 percent or more of down their plan and published it for all to see. They the population either deliberately disenfranchised, or also continuously talked about how important the unable to vote for various other reasons. Constituion was to their plans. As the election campaign draws to a close, In 2011, in his speech to Parliament, President problems with the election process are almost Thein Sein stated clearly: too numerous to count. The vast majority cannot simply be attributed to lack of government capacity “Our country is in the transition to a system or experience. The goal has been to weaken the of democracy with the constitution as the NLD and other opposition parties. The tactic used core.” to achieve this is death by a hundred cuts, rather than the blatant killer blow of ballot stuffing which Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Commander in took place in 2010, and which would destroy the Chief, Burmese Armed Forces, has stated: credibility of the elections this time around. “The constitution is a country’s main law. The USA, EU, UK and other countries are feeling We did not write this constitution in haste. vulnerable to criticism that they moved too soon We gave a lot of time and carefully thought to endorse what has proven to be a deeply flawed about it.” 2 2 With the excitement and hope the election campaign is generating, it is easy to dismiss those expressing Election Facts* concerns about the elections as being too cynical, but these elections are taking place under a Pyidaungsu Hluttaw constitution carefully designed by the military to Bi-cameral national Parliament, consisting of maintain their control. They will still have either an Upper House and Lower House influence or control over every level of government in Burma. Amyotha Hluttaw House of Nationalities - the Upper House Human rights violations could continue Pyithu Hluttaw House of representatives – the Lower House “In chapter one of the Constitution, it refers to a ‘genuine disciplined multi-party 14 state and regional parliaments democracy.’ If it is disciplined, it’s not a genuine democracy.” Around 32 million voters 3 Nai Ngwe Thein, Mon National Party 93 political parties 6,065 candidates The 2008 Constitution means that any future NLD 1,171 constituencies, with voting in 1,163 government could be powerless to stop some of the 330 Lower House seats (and a further 110 most serious human rights violations taking place in seats reserved for the military) Burma today. These include persecution of the Rohingya, the use of rape as a weapon of war, 168 Upper House seats (and a further 56 arrests and jailing of political activists and war seats reserved for the military) crimes and crimes against humanity committed by 636 region or state Parliament seats the Burmese Army, including deliberate targeting of 29 seats for national race representatives civilians in conflict in ethnic states. In all of these areas, the military, not the government, will have Almost 41,000 polling stations 4 ultimate control. Candidates: After the election, and when a new government is formed, the military will remain outside the control of 323 independent candidates both government and the Parliament. If they choose 1,151 NLD candidates to continue attacks against ethnic groups, an NLD 1,134 USDP candidates government will be unable to stop them. Associated human rights violations such as rape, targeting of 5,130 Buddhists civilians, executions, looting and torture, can all 903 Christians continue with an NLD government powerless to stop them. 28 Muslims The military will appoint the Border Affairs Minister, giving them continuing influence over what takes *The Union Election Commission in Burma has place in ethnic states, one of the most critical factors released a series of statistics regarding the in ever achieving peace and stability in Burma. election which have been revised and updated several times. Some statements by UEC officials The military also appoint the Home Affairs Minister, are also contradictory, resulting in many conflicting and so will control the police, security services statistics being published. and much of the justice system. Arrests and prosecutions of peaceful activists could continue outside the control of an NLD government. 3 Through directly owned companies and via Timeline: a complex network of associations of various individuals, the military still control a huge proportion 8th November: Elections held of Burma’s economy. By appointing 25 percent of seats in Parliament, the Constitution cannot 9th November: be changed without military approval, even if an Preliminary result announced NLD government and every other political party in Parliament want to change it.