UC San Diego UC San Diego Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Citizens' evaluation of the president and democratic transition : determinants and effects of presidential approval in Mexico Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6cq2d3ks Author Gomez Vilchis, Ricardo Roman Publication Date 2010 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Citizens’ Evaluation of the President and Democratic Transition: Determinants and Effects of Presidential Approval in Mexico A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Ricardo Roman Gomez Vilchis Committee in charge: Professor Samuel H. Kernell, Chair Professor Wayne A. Cornelius Professor Thaddeus B. Kousser Professor David R. Mares Professor Carlos H. Waisman Professor Christopher M. Woodruff 2010 Copyright Ricardo Roman Gomez Vilchis, 2010 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Ricardo Roman Gomez Vilchis is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: Chair University of California, San Diego 2010 iii DEDICATIO To my family: my mother, Irene Vilchis; my sister, Carmelita; my three nieces, Camelis, Marisol, Karina; my nephew, David; Martita, the family’s nanny; and the memories of my late father Ricardo Gómez Robledo, and my late grand mother, Carmen Témbul, who made it all possible. To the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) for teaching me to develop critical thinking, a feeling of dissatisfaction for injustice, and a rebellious spirit. iv EPIGRAPH I prefer to die standing than to live kneeling. Ernesto Che Guevara When the richness of some people is extreme, it is the reason for the poverty of many. Ricardo R. Gómez Vilchis v TABLE OF COTETS Signature Page……………………………………………………………………iii Dedication………………………………………………………………………...iv Epigraph……………………………………………………………...……………v Table of Contents ………………………………………………………………..vi List of Figures…………………………………………………………………...viii List of Tables……………………………………………………………………...x Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………xii Vita…………………………………………………………………………….xviii Abstract of the Dissertation……………………………………………..………xix Introduction.....................................................................................................…....1 Works Cited ……………………………………………………………...….11 1. Presidential Approval at the Individual Level in Mexico………………..…..13 1.1. Introduction ……………………………………………………….…....13 1.2. The Literature Review…………………………………………………..18 1.3. The Context……………………………………………………………..24 1.4. Hypotheses……………………………………………………….……...37 1.5. Data and Method………………………………………………….……..39 1.6. Results……………………………………………………………….…..43 1.7. Conclusions………………………………………………………….…..72 1.8. Appendix 1……………………………………………………….……..74 1.9. Works Cited…………………………………………………….……….77 1.10. Web Sites………………………………………………………....……84 2. State-Level Presidential Approval in Mexico……………….………….……85 2.1. Introduction………………………………………………………….….85 2.2. The New Political Geography of State Politics in Mexico…….…….….88 2.3. Socioeconomic Conditions across the States of Mexico………………100 2.4. The Variation of Presidential Approval across the States……………..106 vi 2.5. Hypotheses……………………………………………………………..113 2.6. Data and Method……………………………………………………….115 2.7. Results……………………………………………...…………………..125 2.8. Conclusion……………………………………………...……………...136 2.9. Appendix 2.1 ……………………………………………………......…137 2.10. Appendix 2.2…………………………………………………....….…145 2.11. Works Cited……………………………………………………….….153 2.12. Web Sites……………………………………………………….…….155 3. Presidential Approval in Mexico: Multi-Level Analysis…….......................156 3.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………….156 3.2. Findings and Limitations of the Time-Series Analysis………...……....159 3.3. The Literature Review and Rationale………………………………….163 3.4. Hypotheses………………………………………………………….….174 3.5. Data and Method…………………………………………………….…175 3.6. Results……………………………………………………………….…183 3.7. Conclusion………………………….………………..…….…………..204 3.8. Appendix 3……………………………………………………………..207 3.9. Works Cited……………………………………………………………211 3.10. Web Sites …………………………………………………………….212 4. Presidential Approval and Roll Call Voting in Mexico…………………….213 4.1. Introduction………………………………………………………..…...213 4.2. The Review of the Literature…………………………………………..219 4.3. The Executive-Legislative Relationships in Mexico………………......228 4.4. Hypotheses……………………………………………………………..233 4.5 Data and Method………………………………………………………..235 4.6 Results…………………………………………………………………..241 4.7. Conclusion………………………………...…………………………...255 4.8. Works Cited …………………………………………………………...258 4.9. Web Sites ………………………………………………………...……261 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………...262 Works Cited……………………………………………….……………….271 vii LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1: Figure 1.1: The Advancement of the Opposition in the Chamber of Deputies….27 Figure 1.2: Leading Obstacles to Achieving Democracy in Mexico (1998)…….29 Figure 1.3: Perceptions of the Main Task of Democracy in Mexico (1998)…….30 Figure 1.4: Reported Local-Jurisdiction Crime for Mexico, 1991-2001 (per 100,000 Inhabitants) …………………………………………………………….30 Figure 1.5: Presidential Election Results in 1994 and in 2000…………………..32 Figure 1.6: Why Mexican Voters Cast Their Ballots for President in 200 when Changes was the Main Reason to Vote ………………………………………….35 Figure 1.7: Changing Visions of Democracy in the 2000 Presidential Election...36 Figure 1.8: Levels of Trust in the Mexican Presidents during Their First Year of Tenure……………………………………………………………………………37 Chapter 2: Figure 2.1: Political Parties across the States of Mexico 1994-2006……………89 Figure 2.2: State Governments of Mexico Controlled by the Three Main Political Parties: PAN, PRD, and PRI (2006)………………………………………..……91 Figure 2.3: Citizens’ Perceptions of the Political Actors’ Responsibility for the Economic Crisis……………………………………………………………….…99 Figure 2.4: Level of Unemployment across the States of Mexico in 2005…..…101 Figure 2.5: Variation of Unemployment in Four States of Mexico 1994-2005...101 Figure 2.6: Level of Inflation in Mexico across the States in 2005…………....102 Figure 2.7: Variations of Perceptions of Crime as the Main Concern for Mexican from 1995 to 2006…………………………………………………………..…..103 viii Figure 2.8: Convicted Criminals by State in Mexico (2005 )……………….….104 Figure 2.9: Variations of Crime in Four States of Mexico 1994-2005…………105 Figure 2.10: Presidential Approval by State in Mexico 2005…………………..106 Figure 2.11: Presidential Approval (2005) by Party Lenses (States Governed by PAN, PRD and PRI) …………………………………………………………...112 Chapter 3: Figure 3.1: Changing Visions of Democracy in 2000………………………….170 Figure 3.2: Citizens’ Trust in Three Mexican Presidents after Their First Year of Tenure………………………………………………………………………..…171 Figure 3.3: Convicted Criminals by State in Mexico (2005)……………….…..172 Figure 3.4: Complaints against the Civil Service by State in Mexico (2005).…173 Chapter 4: Figure 4.1: Presidential Approval in Mexico before and after the 2000 Democratic Transition……………………………………………………………………….225 Figure 4.2: Presidential Approval vs. Presidential Success in the House before and after the 2000 Democratic Transition…………………………………………..226 Figure 4.3: Composition in the Chamber of Deputies by Partisanship…………227 ix LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1: Table 1.1: Determinants of Presidential Approval before and after the Transition in Mexico (1994-2006)………………………………………………………..…44 Table 1.2: Determinants of Presidential Approval, Pre-Democratic Era and Democratic Period, Compared…………………………………………….……..51 Table 1.3: Changes in Probabilities of the Determinants of Presidential Approval in Mexico…………………………………………………………………...……57 Table 1.4: Effects of Perceptions of Crime, Corruption, Inflation, and Unemployment on Presidential Approval in Mexico (1994-2006), Using the 2000 Election Presidential Election as a Breaking Point, Logit Models………..…..…61 Table 1.5: Effects of Perceptions of Crime, Corruption, Inflation, and Unemployment on Presidential Approval in Mexico (1994-2006), Using the 1997 Intermediate Election as a Breaking Point, Logit Models……………………….65 Table 1.6: Effects of Perceptions of Crime, Corruption, Inflation, and Unemployment on Presidential Approval in Mexico (1994-2006), Using the 2003 Intermediate Election as a Breaking Point, Logit Models…………………….…69 Chapter 2: Table 2.1: Percentage of Presidential Approval across the States 2005………..109 Table 2.2: Explaining State-Level Presidential Approval in Mexico: Variables……………………………………………………………………..…121 Table 2.3: Effects of People’s Perceptions of Crime, Unemployment, and Inflation across the States and Sub-National Conditions on State-Level Presidential Approval (1994-2005) Time-Series-Cross-Sectional Models.……130 Table 2.4: Interactive-Test Model…………….…………………………..…….133 Table 2.5: Comparing the Distribution of the Population of Mexico (01-05) with the Distribution of the Surveys during the Post-PRI Era (01-05)………………137 Table 2.6: Effects of Perceptions Aggregated at the State level and Sub-National Conditions on State-Level Presidential Approval (1994-2005), Including x Perceptions of Corruption and Complaints against Member of the Civil Service ………………………………………………………………………………….145 Table 2.7: Effects of Changes in Perceptions Aggregated at the State Level, and Changes in Sub-National Conditions on State-Level Presidential Approval (1994- 2005), Time-Series-Cross-Sectional Models……...……………………………149 Chapter 3: Table 3.1: Explaining Presidential Approval (Multi-Level): Variables…..……179