NEPAL'S ROYAL COUP: MAKING A BAD SITUATION WORSE Asia Report N°91 -- 9 February 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 1 II. THE COUP...................................................................................................................... 2 III. THE ARMED CONFLICT............................................................................................ 4 A. THE MAOISTS .......................................................................................................................4 B. THE SECURITY FORCES .........................................................................................................6 C. TWO DIFFERENT WARS.........................................................................................................7 IV. THE POLITICAL CONFLICT .................................................................................... 9 A. THE PALACE .........................................................................................................................9 B. THE PARTIES.......................................................................................................................10 V. THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE....................................................................... 11 A. INDIA ..................................................................................................................................11 B. THE U.S..............................................................................................................................13 C. THE EUROPEAN UNION AND OTHERS ..................................................................................14 VI. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 15 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ...................................................................................................................16 B. THE NEW COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ......................................................................................17 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .......................................................................18 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA...............................................................19 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD MEMBERS........................................................................................21 Asia Report N°91 9 February 2005 NEPAL'S ROYAL COUP: MAKING A BAD SITUATION WORSE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On 1 February 2005, in a move not only destructive of said it did not support holding an election. The main democracy and human rights but likely to strengthen Nepali Congress Party had said it favoured restoration of the Maoist insurgents and make Nepal's civil war even the parliament elected in 1999 and would not take part more intense, King Gyanendra sacked Prime Minister in new polls. Sher Bahadur Deuba, took power directly and declared a state of emergency.1 Gyanendra, who has dismissed Dismissal of that parliament in October 2002 began three governments since 2002, claimed he was acting the current political crisis. Gyanendra subsequently to "defend multiparty democracy". But his move had dismissed a royalist government he had hand picked and every familiar and indefensible coup ingredient: party brought most of the mainstream political parties back leaders were put under house arrest, key constitutional into power. But Deuba was unable to return the Maoists rights were suspended, soldiers enforced complete to peace talks, and his coalition government was deeply censorship, and communications were cut. split over how to proceed. With neither the political parties nor the king contributing constructively to the In a televised statement, Gyanendra blamed the process, little progress was being made in developing the politicians, saying they had discredited multiparty united multiparty democracy/constitutional monarchy democracy by "focusing solely on power politics". front that most observers have seen as a necessary Warning that the country was threatened by "terrorists", condition for any such talks to be productive. he said the security forces would end the nine-year-old Maoist insurgency in which 11,000 people have died. The last round of peace talks broke down in August Prime Minister Deuba was placed under house arrest, 2003, leading to intensified conflict. A significant and other political leaders, including the heads of party build-up of government forces has done little to student wings, were detained before the announcement. improve security across the country. Maoist insurgents, who have shown themselves able to attack Gyanendra's move was widely condemned by the at will, hold sway over most rural areas and are international community. India, caught off-guard by the increasingly active in towns nominally controlled by announcement, called it "a serious setback to the cause the government. Combining effective guerrilla tactics of democracy". UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan with violent intimidation and extortion, they have called for an immediate restoration of democracy, as did built up a nationwide presence, though one founded the British and U.S. governments. more on fear than popular support. The king's takeover came as political tensions were The state has withdrawn from most rural areas. Its building in Kathmandu over possible elections. Prime security forces, based in district headquarters and a few Minister Deuba had said that he would shortly announce heavily fortified posts, are vulnerable and unable to a date for polls but this was greeted with considerable protect the population. When they are attacked, their scepticism given the worsening security situation, in response has often been indiscriminate violence that which the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist further undermines civilian security. There is Leninist, UML), a member of Deuba's government, had widespread agreement among knowledgeable observers both inside and outside the country that the insurgency cannot be defeated militarily, and any solution will 1 This report provides the essential background to the royal require a mix of military and political strategies. So far coup of 1 February 2005, describes first consequences on the both have been lacking, and there is every reason to ground and reactions in Nepal and abroad, and offers initial believe that the situation will now get even worse with analysis of its implications. Crisis Group will shortly provide the king's assumption of full power: additional analysis and policy recommendations for a way forward, as well as fuller discussion of related political subjects including the constitutional crisis. Nepal's Royal Coup: Making a Bad Situation Worse Crisis Group Asia Report N°91, 9 February 2005 Page ii This move will only boost the Maoists by monarchy but calls for a republic have become confirming their view of the monarch as opposing louder in the past two years. The king is now democracy; they may now seek to make common directly exposed to the problems of running the cause with the mainstream parties against the king. country: if he does not deliver peace quickly, his support will sink further. The political parties, while diminished since the dissolution of parliament in 2002, retain A worsening of the human rights situation with considerable grass roots support: any solution the suspension of constitutional protections and that does not include them is likely to be an upsurge in violence will likely reduce the opposed by many and would be unsustainable. willingness of donors to fund the social and economic reforms that would necessarily be Government security forces presently lack the part of any political solution. capacity to defeat the Maoists and cannot develop it any time soon. Troops are now occupied There is no reason to believe that rule by decree controlling politicians and journalists in will mean that corruption and mismanagement Kathmandu rather than fighting the insurgents. will be any less prevalent than when Nepal was Nepal's terrain, the self-sustaining nature of the previously governed by an absolute monarchy insurgency and its lack of an external backer make from 1960 to 1991. it difficult to put pressure on the insurgents, and the arrest or killing of a few key Maoist leaders Kathmandu/Brussels, 9 February 2005 will not end the conflict. King Gyanendra enjoys little popular support. Most Nepalis would prefer a constitutional Asia Report N°91 9 February 2005 NEPAL'S ROYAL COUP: MAKING A BAD SITUATION WORSE I. BACKGROUND major party leaders. In September 2004 the HPC called for the Maoists to return to talks. But the Maoist leadership repeatedly said it would negotiate only with The conflict dates to 1996 when the Maoists2 began King Gyanendra, whom it regards as the real power. The organising an insurgency in the mid-west of the party chairman, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (commonly country. Regarded as an isolated problem that could known as Prachanda), challenged Deuba to demonstrate easily be controlled, it received little attention in his full authority or allow his "masters behind the 5 Kathmandu until a series of violent police operations curtain" to talk. led to a widening of the conflict. By 2001, the revolt had spread considerably, and the army had become Koirala's Congress