PREPARED BY AECOM TECHNICAL APPENDICES REPORT FEBRUARY 2018 THE TRANSPORTATION DIVIDEND TRANSIT INVESTMENTS AND THE MASSACHUSETTS ECONOMY TECHNICAL APPENDIX A ECONOMIC BENEFITS METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS THE TRANSPORTATION DIVIDEND TRANSIT INVESTMENTS AND THE MASSACHUSETTS ECONOMY CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Study Scenarios ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Summary of Findings............................................................................................................................................................. 2 TRAVEL DEMAND: TECHNICAL APPROACH ............................................................................ 3 Baseline .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Scenario 1: “No Transit” ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Scenario 2: “No Transit” with Land Use Changes ................................................................................................................ 4 Scenario 3: State of Good Repair.......................................................................................................................................... 6 TRAVEL DEMAND: RESULTS .................................................................................................. 8 Scenario 1: “No Transit” ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 Scenario 2: “No Transit” with Land Use Changes ................................................................................................................ 8 Scenario 3: State of Good Repair.......................................................................................................................................... 8 Benchmarking Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 MONETIZATION OF OPERATIONAL BENEFITS ...................................................................... 13 Travel Time Savings ............................................................................................................................................................. 13 Travel Cost Savings .............................................................................................................................................................. 17 Auto Crash Avoided Savings................................................................................................................................................ 18 Emission Savings .................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Congestion Savings .............................................................................................................................................................. 23 MONETIZING CAPITAL BENEFITS ........................................................................................ 24 Highway Lane Miles............................................................................................................................................................. 24 Parking Capacity .................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Scenario 3: State of Good Repair.......................................................................................................................................... 8 SUMMARY OF MODELING RESULTS .................................................................................... 28 PROPERTY VALUATION PREMIUM ....................................................................................... 29 Technical Appendix A: The Regional Modeling Analysis A-i FIGURES Figure 1: Relative 2030 Population by TAZ for Anticipated Baseline, Scenario 1, and Scenario 3 .................................... 5 Figure 2: Relative 2030 Population by TAZ for Scenario 2 ................................................................................................... 6 TABLES Table 1: Example Travel Time (Tt) Matrix ............................................................................................................................. 4 Table 2: Stops Model 2015 Average Weekday Travel Results ............................................................................................. 9 Table 3: Stops Model 2030 Average Weekday Travel Results ........................................................................................... 10 Table 4: Benchmarking Comparison ................................................................................................................................... 11 Table 5: Trip Purposes and Values Of Time, 2030 .............................................................................................................. 12 Table 6: Scenarios 1 and 2 Travel Time, 2030 .................................................................................................................... 14 Table 7: Scenarios 3a, 3b, and 3c Travel Time, 2030 ......................................................................................................... 14 Table 8: Value Of Travel Time in 2030 by Scenario ............................................................................................................ 16 Table 9: Travel Cost (Savings) Associated with Transit Service in 2030 ($M 2015) .......................................................... 18 Table 10: Accident Rates Per 100,000,000 VMT, 2014 ...................................................................................................... 19 Table 11: Value of Accidents Avoided, $M 2015 ............................................................................................................... 19 Table 12: Auto Crash Avoided Costs (Savings) Associated With Transit Service In 2030 ($M 2015) .............................. 20 Table 13: Moves 2010a Emission Rates for 2015 and 2030 Analysis ............................................................................... 20 Table 14: Changes In VMT by Mode and Scenario in 2030 ............................................................................................... 22 Table 15: Value of Emissions Per Short Ton, 2015$ ........................................................................................................... 22 Table 16: Emissions Associated with Regional Transit Service in 2030 ($M 2015) .......................................................... 23 Table 17: Annual Value of Congestion and Crashes in the Boston Region in 2030 ($M 2015) ....................................... 23 Table 18: Total Highway Capital Costs Avoided (Excluding Row), Scenario 1 in 2030 ($M 2015) ................................... 25 Table 19: Total Highway Capital Costs Avoided (Excluding Row), Scenario 2 in 2030 ($M 2015) ................................... 25 Table 20: Total Parking Capital Costs Avoided in the Boston Core, Scenarios 1 and 2, 2030 ($M 2015) ....................... 27 Table 21: 2015 Scenarios 1 and 2 Total Results ................................................................................................................. 28 Table 22: 2015 Scenario 3 Total Results ............................................................................................................................. 28 Table 23: 2030 Scenarios 1 and 2 Total Results ................................................................................................................. 29 Table 24: 2030 Scenario 3 Total Results ............................................................................................................................. 29 Technical Appendix A: The Regional Modeling Analysis A-ii INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW The analysis in this Technical Appendix considers two questions. How does the Boston metropolitan economy benefit from the availability of MBTA operations? Is there an economic penalty associated with allowing the system to fall out of a state of good repair? Or, put another way, would there be an economic gain to returning the system to a state of good repair? The report is not a cost-benefit analysis on the existence of MBTA, nor should its results be construed as such. Instead, it is designed to give multiple audiences a sense of transit’s role in the region by simply describing the variety of ways MBTA’s transit services impact the region. STUDY SCENARIOS To measure MBTA’s contribution to the economy of Metropolitan Boston, Three distinct scenarios were developed for the years 2015 and 2030, in addition to a Base Case or “Baseline”. The first scenario hypothetically removes all existing MBTA transit service. This “no MBTA” scenario is not the research objective,