Young People’s Travel – What’s Changed and Why? Review and Analysis Final Report The Centre for Transport & Society, UWE Bristol & Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford Authors: Kiron ChatterjeeU*, Phil GoodwinU*, Tim SchwanenO*, Ben ClarkU, Juliet JainU, Steve MeliaU, Jennie MiddletonO, Anna PlyushtevaO, Miriam RicciU, Georgina SantosO and Gordon StokesO (U=UWE Bristol, O=University of Oxford, *= Editors of this report) Preferred form of citation: Chatterjee, K., Goodwin, P., Schwanen, T., Clark, B., Jain, J., Melia, S., Middleton, J., Plyushteva, A., Ricci, M., Santos, G. and Stokes, G. (2018). Young People’s Travel – What’s Changed and Why? Review and Analysis. Report to Department for Transport. UWE Bristol, UK. www.gov.uk/government/publications/young-peoples-travel-whats-changed-and- why January 2018 For any queries or correspondence regarding the report, please contact the UWE Project Manager Kiron Chatterjee Associate Professor of Travel Behaviour Centre for Transport & Society Faculty of Environment & Technology University of the West of England, Bristol Frenchay Campus Coldharbour Lane Bristol BS16 1QY E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0) 117 32 82032 i CONTENTS GLOSSARY VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VIII 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. TRENDS IN TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR 2 2.1 Driving licences 2 2.2 Car access 2 2.3 Total travel 3 2.4 Transport mode use 3 2.5 Car driving distance 4 2.6 Summary 5 3. SOCIETAL TRENDS AND LIFESTYLE CHANGES 13 3.1 Potential influences on young people’s travel behaviour 13 3.2 Demographic situation 15 3.2.1 Postponing of parenthood 15 3.2.2 Increase in cohabitation 15 3.2.3 Migration to the UK 15 3.3 Living situation 15 3.3.1 Living with parents longer 15 3.3.2 Decline in private home ownership 16 3.3.3 Increased urbanisation 17 3.4 Socio-economic situation 17 3.4.1 Increased participation in higher education 17 3.4.2 Increase in women’s labour force participation 18 3.4.3 Increased work in the service sector 18 3.4.4 Increase in low-waged, uncontracted work 19 3.4.5 Decline in disposable income 20 3.5 Information and Communication Technologies 20 3.5.1 Increased ICT use 20 3.5.2 Use of mobile devices to arrange everyday life 21 3.5.3 ICT use whilst travelling on public transport 22 3.5.4 Increase in gaming 22 ii 3.6 Values and attitudes 22 3.6.1 Extended youth 22 3.6.2 Rise of pro-environmental attitudes 23 3.6.3 Decline in cars as status symbols 23 3.7 Transport and mobility 24 3.7.1 Improvements in public transport 24 3.7.2 Stricter driver licensing regime 24 3.7.3 Increased car insurance costs 24 3.7.4 Increased spending on transport 25 3.7.5 Rise of shared mobility 25 3.8 Summary 26 4. WHAT MIGHT BE THE CAUSES OF CHANGE? EXPLANATIONS OFFERED WITHIN PUBLISHED LITERATURE 28 4.1 Driving licences 28 4.2 Car access 29 4.3 Total travel 29 4.4 Transport mode use 30 4.5 Car driving distance 30 4.6 Summary 32 5. WHAT MIGHT BE THE CAUSES OF CHANGE? NEW ANALYSES OF EXISTING DATA 33 5.1 Changes in time spent at home and at journey destinations 33 5.2 Changing spatial distribution of young adults 35 5.3 Life trajectories and travel behaviour 38 5.3.1 Driving licence acquisition 39 5.3.2 Life trajectories and car use 41 5.4 Summary 43 6. SUMMARISING THE EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE 45 6.1 Explaining the travel behaviour trends 45 6.2 Future scenarios 51 6.3 Research recommendations 53 6.4 Conclusions 54 iii 7. REFERENCES 56 APPENDIX A: REVIEW METHODOLOGY 66 APPENDIX B: RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS 70 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Trips per Year by Mode for 21-29 Year Olds in Great Britain 1995/97 and 2012 .............................................................................................. 4 Table 2: Distance in Miles per Year by Mode for 21-29 Year Olds in Great Britain 2002 and 2012 .................................................................................. 5 Table 3: Potential Influences on Young People’s Travel Behaviour .................. 14 Table 4: Average Weekly Expenditure on Housing1 by Age Group of the Household Reference Person in UK 2001/2 to 2014 .................................................. 20 Table 5: Smartphone Adoption by Age Group in UK 2012 to 2015 .................... 21 Table 6: Predictors of Driving Licence Acquisition...................................... 40 Table 7: Predictors of Being a Car Driver When Aged 21-28 .......................... 42 Table 8: Assessment of the Effects of Societal Trends and Lifestyle Changes on Young People’s Travel Behaviour .......................................................... 46 Table 9: Evidence on Travel Behaviour Effects of Postponing of Parenthood ...... 48 Table A1: Contribution of Different Study Methodologies to Robust Evidence ..... 68 Table B1: Research Recommendations ................................................... 71 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Percentage of Men with Driving Licence by Age Group in England 1975/76 to 2014 .......................................................................................... 6 Figure 2: Percentage of Women with Driving Licence by Age Group in England 1975/76 to 2014 ................................................................................ 6 Figure 3: Licence Holding Progression with Age for Birth Cohorts of Men in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 ............................................................................ 7 Figure 4: Licence Holding Progression with Age for Birth Cohorts of Women in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .................................................................. 7 Figure 5: Personal Car Access for 17-20 Year Olds in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .. 8 Figure 6: Personal Car Access for 21-24 Year Olds in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .. 8 Figure 7: Personal Car Access for 25-29 Year Olds in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .. 8 Figure 8: Personal Car Access for 30-59 Year Olds in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .. 8 Figure 9: Trips per Person per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14... 9 Figure 10: Distance Travelled per Person per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 ...................................................................................... 9 Figure 11: Average Number of Car Driver Trips per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .......................................................................... 10 Figure 12: Average Number of Car Passenger Trips per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 ................................................................ 10 iv Figure 13: Average Number of Walking Trips per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .......................................................................... 10 Figure 14: Average Number of Cycling Trips per Year by Age Group in England 1995- 99 to 2010-14 ................................................................................. 10 Figure 15: Average Number of Bus Trips per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .................................................................................... 10 Figure 16: Average Number of Rail Trips per Year by Age Group in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .................................................................................... 10 Figure 17: Average Car Driver Miles per Person per Year for Men by Age in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .......................................................................... 11 Figure 18: Average Car Driver Miles per Person per Year for Women by Age in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 ................................................................ 11 Figure 19: Car Driver Miles Progression with Age for Birth Cohorts of Men in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 .......................................................................... 12 Figure 20: Car Driver Miles Progression with Age for Birth Cohorts of Women in England 1995-99 to 2010-14 ................................................................ 12 Figure 21: Employment Rates of Young Men (Left) and Women (Right) in UK 1985 to 2014 ............................................................................................ 18 Figure 22: Average Car Driver Miles per Person per Year by Age Group and Age when Started Driving for Full Licence Holders in England 2002 to 2014 ............. 31 Figure 23: Time Spent at Home by Men and Women aged 17-29 in England 1995 to 2014 ............................................................................................ 33 Figure 24: Time Spent at Home Progression with Age for Birth-Cohorts of Men in England 1995 to 2014........................................................................ 34 Figure 25: Time Spent at Home Progression with Age for Birth-Cohorts of Women in England 1995 to 2014........................................................................ 35 Figure 26: Change in Driving to Work Modal Share by Age and Population Density of Home LSOA in England 2001 to 2011 ...................................................... 37 Figure 27: Change in Public Transport Modal Share by Age and Population Density of Home LSOA in England 2001 to 2011................................................... 37 Figure A1: Review Areas and their Contribution to Evidence Requirements ........ 66 v Glossary Term Definition Research terminology Baby Boomers Demographic group born during the post–World War II baby boom, approximately between the years 1946 and 1964 Birth cohort People born during the same time period (however defined) Car access Having car access is defined for the purposes of this study as being the driver of a household car or van, either as the main