U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fireline National Technology & Development Program Production 5100—Fire Management 1151 1805—SDTDC April 2011 Rates FIRELINE PRODUCTION RATES by George Broyles, Fire Project Leader Forest Service San Dimas Technology and Development Center San Dimas, CA 91773 Information contained in this document has been developed for the guidance of employees of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, its contractors, and cooperating Federal and State agencies. The USDA Forest Service assumes no responsibility for the interpretation or use of this information by other than its own employees. The use of trade, firm, or corporation names is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official evaluation, conclusion, recommendation, endorsement, or approval of any product or service to the exclusion of others that may be suitable. 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Introduction Fireline production rates are used for strategic Over the years there have been many changes fire management purposes to ensure that the in fire management and in the fire environment. appropriate number and type of crews are Increased fire behavior and larger fires are assigned to meet management objectives. now more common. Although new technology These production rates also are used for and tools are available to firefighters and fire planning purposes and in fire growth estimation managers, one thing has remained constant: the models. Existing rates were outdated and often single most common resource used to control overestimated actual crew capability, which wildland fire is still hand crews. Hand crews hinders accurate resource assignments and remain the most effective tool fire managers adversely affects model outputs. Through direct have to contain and control wildland fire. Hand observation of crews on active fires throughout crews perform this function by digging a handline the United States, new production rates have directly along a fire’s edge or indirectly at some been established, which reflect a 95-percent distance from the fire. confidence limit. An upper and lower range of fireline production capability is also presented in Fireline production rates are defined as the this report. expected length of fireline that can be constructed by a crew (or other resource type) in a given time. KEY POINTS These rates are used continually for strategic q Current published fireline production rates fire management planning purposes and to do not reflect actual production rates. determine yearly fire management programs. To q Accurate fireline production rates were more effectively utilize hand crews and develop needed. tactics with a high probability for success, fire managers must know how far any given hand q Multiple variables in the fire environment crew can construct a fireline in a given period of need to be evaluated and measured. time under various conditions. Lack of accurate q New rates with a 95-percent confidence fireline production rates may cause fire managers limit were developed for all crew types. to send too few crews to a division, which may q New values include an upper and lower result in a situation where the control objectives range for line construction rates. are not met and the fire eventually spreads beyond the projected control line. This not only q Hand crews spend less than 5 percent of a increases the time and cost for containment, but daily shift in rest breaks. also needlessly expends the resources of the q Hand crews spend about 34 percent of a hand crews, increases their exposure to hazards, daily shift constructing fireline. and requires them to reengage in another location q Hand crews spend about 18 percent of a to start over. daily shift driving and/or hiking. Production rates also are used in decisionmaking, q Hand crews spend the majority of their time specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support engaged in other mission-related activities, System (WFDSS) and planning for resource such as briefings, travel, and safety-related ordering. Correct assignment of resources for operations. development of the WFDSS and evaluation q Methods used in this project can be of alternative depends on the resources’ replicated to determine production rates for fireline production rates. Firefighting resource all other firefighting resources. 1 Fireline Production Rates outputs (fireline production rates) will aid staff The fireline production rates are published in the in determining the estimated costs versus Fireline Handbook (PMS 410-1, NFES 0065). the values protected associated with each Although the Fireline Handbook is updated on a alternative. Also, production rates are used in periodic basis, the production rates in use today new large-fire growth estimation models and were developed over 40 years ago (Hornby for effective preplanning and prepositioning of 1936; Lindquist 1970). Many fire managers resources during times of high fire danger. Lack and fire operations personnel recognized that of accurate production measures may cause the published rates were no longer valid, and a units to be understaffed, in which case effective study by Haven et al. (1982) confirms that earlier initial attack would be compromised; or the published rates “vary by as much as 500% [sic].” unit could be overstaffed, creating a shortage There are several reasons why the old rates in other areas of need. In these scenarios, the are no longer representative of the actual rates. allocation of financial resources is not optimized. Perhaps most importantly, the published rates Outputs from models used for preplanning were gathered many years ago and very few of or decision support will show significant bias the rates were measured while hand crews were when inaccurate production rates are used. actively engaged in fire suppression (Barney et Because fire size estimation is based in part al. 1992). This fact alone has a strong influence on production capability, basing dispatch or on the accuracy of the old rates. Although there assignment decisions on these outputs could has been previous research done to establish cause errors in fire size estimation, suppression fireline production rates, this research was often expenditures, and probability of success. Fireline limited in geographic scope, in the quantity of production rates are used in several fire size observations of active fire suppression activities, estimation models, as well as models designed and in crew type observations. In some cases, to determine resource effectiveness and large- the research relied on expert opinion rather fire management efficiency. More accurate than field observations (Fried et al. 1989). rates are important, particularly when these Barney et al. (1992) state that the limited data values are used for modeling purposes. Haven in their production rate study had precluded et al. (1982) state, “Errors in production models them from developing a detailed production values have the potential for radically biasing rate model. Haven et al. (1982) point out that the simulated results. Significant planning errors fireline production rates need to be determined can be made by blind reliance on published under actual fire conditions. They also state that rates.” Additionally, these rates are a critical production rates determined under simulated input for the Fire Program Analysis (FPA); conditions tend to overestimate actual production because the preparedness module (PM) of the rate values. FPA system relies on models, the accuracy of inputs, such as fireline production rates, must These factors—combined with increased fire be quantified if the results are to be presented behavior, new crew types, new crew performance with specified confidence. The fireline production standards and training, and, most especially, with rate information is one of the most sensitive recent changes in safety and risk management values in relation to the system outputs, and guidelines—made it clear that new production these standards are needed to operationalize the rates were needed. It was evident that in order to system. establish rates with a high degree of confidence, actual field observations by trained observers 2 Field Data Acquisition were necessary. The San Dimas Technology FIELD DATA ACQUISITION and Development Center (SDTDC) of the U.S. A data collection matrix (see appendix A) was Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, developed that would provide a rich data set for National Technology and Development Program, analysis. Today, crews are tasked with many developed a set of protocols to meet these different