OCTOBER 2017 U.S. Military Forces in FY 2018 The Uncertain Buildup AUTHOR Mark F. Cancian A Report of the CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM Blank OCTOBER 2017 U.S. Military Forces in FY 2018 The Uncertain Buildup AUTHOR Mark F. Cancian A Report of the CSIS DEFENSE OUTLOOK SERIES Lanham Boulder New York London About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2017 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-8041-0 (pb); 978-1-4422-8042-7 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com Contents Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................V Caveat ............................................................................................................................................................VI Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................VII Introduction .................................................................................................................................................1 Competing visions .................................................................................................................................1 A wide range of fiscal futures ..............................................................................................................10 Overview of Military Services ...................................................................................................................14 Army ...............................................................................................................................................................15 The future size of the Army .................................................................................................................. 17 Balance of regular and Guard/reserve forces ................................................................................. 18 Europe, Russia, and the European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) .................................................. 20 Modernization—the future force ....................................................................................................... 22 Navy .................................................................................................................................................... .......... 27 The size of the Navy ............................................................................................................................. 30 Navy shipbuilding—the future fleet ................................................................................................... 32 Naval aviation modernization—the future air arm ......................................................................... 38 Ship collisions and their implications for the force ....................................................................... 40 Marine Corps ...............................................................................................................................................42 Revised force structure ........................................................................................................................ 43 Aviation modernization and woes ..................................................................................................... 44 Ground modernization—the future force ........................................................................................ 46 Guam and Pacific force stationing .................................................................................................... 46 Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Forces (SP-MAGTFs) .................................................. 47 Amphibious ships and alternative platforms ................................................................................... 47 Air Force ....................................................................................................................................................... 49 Operational tempo—and the tension with warfare at the high end .......................................... 51 The A-10, legacy aircraft, and the purpose of airpower ............................................................... 52 Piloted versus unpiloted (or “manned versus unmanned“) .......................................................... 54 Aircraft modernization—the future force structure ....................................................................... 54 Nuclear enterprise ................................................................................................................................. 56 Space ........................................................................................................................................................ 57 Special Operations Forces (SOF) ............................................................................................................ 58 Size of the force ..................................................................................................................................... 58 Stress on the force ................................................................................................................................ 58 Dependence on OCO funding ........................................................................................................... 59 Management of Special Operations Forces .................................................................................... 59 DOD Civilians .............................................................................................................................................. 61 Reducing cost: pay raise and pension cuts ..................................................................................... 61 Reducing size: Hiring freezes and the size of the civilian workforce ........................................ 62 Reducing size: Cap on Senior Executive Service (SES) positions ............................................... 63 Increasing quality: reform and accountability ................................................................................ 63 Political appointees ............................................................................................................................... 64 Contractors .................................................................................................................................................65 Service contractors ............................................................................................................................... 65 | III Operational contractors ...................................................................................................................... 67 DOD-Wide ................................................................................................................................................... 70 Readiness and full-spectrum warfighting ........................................................................................ 70 National Security Reform and Reduction in Management Headquarters ................................ 73 Facilities and infrastructure ................................................................................................................. 74 Unmanned Systems and Artificial Intelligence ............................................................................... 75 DOD/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) split ...................................................... 76 U.S. allies .................................................................................................................................................. 78 About the Author ....................................................................................................................................... 81 IV | Mark F. Cancian Acknowledgments “Defense Outlook” is an annual series of studies on the linkages