State of the Salmon: Informing the survival of Fraser Sockeye returning in 2020 through life cycle observations Bronwyn L. MacDonald, Sue C.H. Grant, Niki Wilson, David A. Patterson, Kendra A. Robinson, Jennifer L. Boldt, Jackie King, Erika Anderson, Scott Decker, Brian Leaf, Lucas Pon, Yi Xu, Brooke Davis, and Dan T. Selbie Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Branch, Pacific Region Pacific Biological Station 3190 Hammond Bay Road Nanaimo, British Columbia V9T 6N7 2020 Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3398 1 Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Technical reports contain scientific and technical information that contributes to existing knowledge but which is not normally appropriate for primary literature. Technical reports are directed primarily toward a worldwide audience and have an international distribution. 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Les demandes de rapports seront satisfaites par l'établissement auteur dont le nom figure sur la couverture et la page du titre. Les numéros 1 à 456 de cette série ont été publiés à titre de Rapports techniques de l'Office des recherches sur les pêcheries du Canada. Les numéros 457 à 714 sont parus à titre de Rapports techniques de la Direction générale de la recherche et du développement, Service des pêches et de la mer, ministère de l'Environnement. Les numéros 715 à 924 ont été publiés à titre de Rapports techniques du Service des pêches et de la mer, ministère des Pêches et de l'Environnement. Le nom actuel de la série a été établi lors de la parution du numéro 925. Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3398 2020 STATE OF THE SALMON: INFORMING THE SURVIVAL OF FRASER SOCKEYE RETURNING IN 2020 THROUGH LIFE CYCLE OBSERVATIONS Bronwyn L. MacDonald1, Sue C.H. Grant1, Niki Wilson2, David A. Patterson3, Kendra A. Robinson3, Jennifer L. Boldt4, Jackie King4, Erika Anderson4, Scott Decker5, Brian Leaf5, Lucas Pon6, Yi Xu7, Brooke Davis7, and Daniel T. Selbie6 Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Branch, Pacific Region Pacific Biological Station 3190 Hammond Bay Road Nanaimo, B.C. V9T 6N7 1 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, 200-401 Burrard Street, 13th floor, Vancouver, BC, V6C 3S4 [email protected] 3 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6 4 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, B.C. V9T 6N7 5 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, Fraser-British Columbia Interior Area, 985 McGill Place, Kamloops, B.C. V2C 6X6 6 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, Cultus Lake Salmon Research Laboratory, 4222 Columbia Valley Highway, Cultus Lake, B.C. V2R 5B6 7 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, Fraser-British Columbia Interior Area Unit 3-100 Annacis Parkway, Delta, B.C. V3M 6A2 i © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2020. Cat. Fs97-6/3398E-PDF ISBN 978-0-660-35889-5 ISSN 1488-5379 Correct citation for this publication: MacDonald, B.L., Grant, S.C.H., Wilson, N., Patterson, D.A., Robinson, K.A., Boldt, J.L., King, J. Anderson, E., Decker, S., Leaf, B., Pon, L., Xu, Y., Davis, B., & Selbie, D.T. 2020. State of the Salmon: Informing the survival of Fraser Sockeye returning in 2020 through life cycle observations. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3398: v + 76 p. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................. iv RÉSUMÉ .................................................................................................................................................. v 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 1 2 HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................... 4 3 OVERVIEW.................................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 BACKGROUND.............................................................................................................................. 16 Fraser Sockeye Life History ........................................................................................................... 16 Environmental and Biological Trends 2015 - 2020 ........................................................................ 17 Review of the 2019 Workshop and Preliminary 2019 Returns ...................................................... 18 Fraser Sockeye Pre-season Four year Old Return Forecasts for 2020 ........................................ 20 3.2 BROOD YEAR SPAWNERS AND EGG STAGE: SUMMER/FALL 2016 - SPRING 2017 ............................ 20 3.3 JUVENILE FRESHWATER STAGE: SPRING 2017 - SPRING 2018 ...................................................... 22 3.4 JUVENILE DOWNSTREAM MIGRATION IN THE FRASER RIVER: SPRING 2018 .................................... 24 3.5 JUVENILE MARINE STAGE: SPRING 2018 – PRESENT ..................................................................... 25 3.6 PROPORTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 27 4 DETAILED OBSERVATIONS FROM FRASER SOCKEYE LIFE STAGES ................................ 28 4.1 BROOD YEAR SPAWNERS AND EGG STAGE ................................................................................... 28 Upstream Migration and Spawning: Summer/Fall 2016 ................................................................ 28 Overwinter Incubation: Winter 2016 .............................................................................................. 33 4.2 JUVENILE FRESHWATER STAGE .................................................................................................... 35 Emergence and Migration to Rearing Lakes: Spring 2017 ............................................................ 35 Lake Rearing: Summer - Fall 2017 ................................................................................................ 36 Overwinter in Lakes: Fall 2017 – Spring 2018 ............................................................................... 41 4.3 JUVENILE DOWNSTREAM MIGRATION ............................................................................................ 43 Migration at Lake Outlets: Spring 2018 ......................................................................................... 43 4.4 JUVENILE MARINE STAGE ............................................................................................................. 49 Northeast Pacific Ocean Conditions and Observations: 2018-present ......................................... 49 Strait of Georgia Marine Conditions and Observations: Spring/Summer 2018 ............................. 53 Queen Charlotte Strait- Southern Queen Charlotte Sound Juvenile Sockeye Surveys: Early Summer 2018 ................................................................................................................................ 56 4.5 PROPORTIONS OF STOCKS OBSERVED THROUGH SAMPLING PROGRAMS ....................................... 59 5 KNOWLEDGE GAPS AND FURTHER WORK ............................................................................ 61 5.1 BROOD YEAR SPAWNERS AND EGG STAGE ................................................................................... 61 5.2 JUVENILE