Religious Influences on Crisis Presidential Decision-Making: A New Belief in the Operational Code Analysis of George W. Bush The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Yamashiro, Daniel K.M. 2017. Religious Influences on Crisis Presidential Decision-Making: A New Belief in the Operational Code Analysis of George W. Bush. Master's thesis, Harvard Extension School. Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:33826499 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA Religious Influences on Crisis Presidential Decision-Making: A New Belief in the Operational Code Analysis of George W. Bush Daniel K.M. Yamashiro A Thesis in the Field of Government for the Degree of Master of Liberal Arts in Extension Studies Harvard University May 2017 ! © 2017 Daniel Keauhou Matsu Yamashiro ! Abstract This investigation explores religious influences on foreign policy decision-making of American presidents in times of national crisis. It focuses on one heuristic case study, George W. Bush during the crisis of 9/11. Part One involves a plausibility probe. Since “cognitive frameworks and belief systems are the primary lenses through which presidents view the world” and religion is a variable that shapes beliefs related to political decision-making, three essential questions emerge: 1) whether religion ever changes these beliefs significantly, and if so, 2) when do these changes occur, and 3) what causes those changes? Grounded on Herbert Simon’s theory of bounded rationality, this thesis performs a counterfactual operational code analysis on President George W. Bush utilizing Jonathan Renshon’s data from “Stability and Change in Belief Systems: The Operational Code of George W. Bush” to develop empirical data that atheizes forty-eight foreign policy speech transcripts from Bush’s presidency. The comparative analysis isolates religion as an independent variable, enlisting Profiler Plus and the Verbs in Context System indices to determine whether there are major shifts and/or statistical significance with religion as a causal mechanism. Part Two examines George W. Bush from autobiographical, psycho-biographical, and biographical studies. I analyze religious influences throughout the president’s life from childhood to the presidency, pre-9/11 and post-9/11—proposing a causal link hypothesis of religion to crisis presidential decision- making by employing Albert Bandura’s model of triadic reciprocality in social cognitive theory. The results of this investigation challenge previous explanations on causal paths for belief change and subsequent decision-making. It introduces a new research framework to the literature of presidential decision-making by presenting a methodology to derive empirical data that examines religious influences on the political beliefs of presidents and a diagnostic model for analyzing autobiographies. ! Dedication Jamie Allie, Hugh, and Luke Soli Deo gloria "#! ! Acknowledgments Dominus illuminatio mea. To my love, Jamie and our children, Allie, Hugh and Luke, this journey is rich and joyous because of you. Thank you to my thesis director Professor David Holland at Harvard Divinity School, for sage guidance in this invigorating exploration; my research advisor Dr. Donald Ostrowski, for meticulous consistency; my social science research methods professor, Dr. Doug Bond, for encouragement that increased my faith; and, my academic advisor Chuck Houston, for relating with my pursuit. To Harvard professors Dr. Christopher Robichaud, Dr. John Paul Rollert, Dr. George Wendt, Dr. Christopher Taggart, Dr. Diane Moore, Dr. Carlos Diaz-Rosillo, Dr. Muhammet Bas, Dr. Michelle Sanchez, and Dr. Mathias Risse equipped me for this investigation. Leaders and partners of JCCY, Inc., I am grateful for your support. To the Rev. David and Alice Yamashiro, Ron and June Tokuda, Ed and Jane Shiroma, Guy and Waynette Shindo, Virgil and Lori Salvador, the Rev. Dr. Sam and Nancy Webb, the Rev. Dr. Dan Chun, the Rev. Norman and Faye Nakanishi, the Rev. Dr. Jonathan Steeper, the Rev. Jimmy and Diana Yamada, the Rev. Dr. George Nagato, Dr. Hugh Dunn, Dr. Stephen Mansfield, Dr. Calvin Oishi, Dr. Jeffrey and Joanie Miyazawa, Dr. Kerry and Joni Ishihara, Dr. Roger and Stefanie Joe, Dr. Peter Lam, Ed and Mae Jung, Burt and Carolyn Chinen, Dr. Ethan and Shannon Small, Stephen and Toni Lathrop-Lee, the Rev. Terry Wong, Jamie Lee-Kwai, Suzanne Maurer, the Rev. Arlen and Melissa Nagata, David Serrone, Chaz Ontai, Darah York, Bev Singleton, Michael and Sista Beazley, Martin Arinaga, Sherrie Dodo-Aguilar, Yasuko Shiraishi, Aileen Asato, Danford Oshima, Camille Omo, Cathy Suehisa, Lee and Miltinee Yih, Jansen Wong, Dr. Yared and Alana Gurmu – Mahalo and Aloha! #! ! Table of Contents Dedication …………………………………………………………………………… iv Acknowledgments …………………………………………………………………… v List of Tables ………………………………………………………………………… ix List of Diagrams……………………………………………………………………… x I. Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 1 Research Problem …………………………………………………………… 1 Research Question …………………………………………………………… 7 Research Design …………………………………………………………… 8 Operational Code Analysis Methodology …………………………… 9 Diagnostic and Choice Propensities ………………………………… 10 Unit of Analysis ……………………………………………………… 13 Definition of Research Terms ……………………………………………… 13 Research Limitations ………………………………………………………… 24 Theories and Hypotheses …………………………………………………… 25 Herbert Simon’s Theory of Bounded Rationality …………………… 25 Albert Bandura’s Theory of Triadic Reciprocality…………………… 26 II. Methods and Results Part 1: Quantitative Analysis ……………………………… 28 Jonathan Renshon’s “Stability and Change in Belief Systems of George W. Bush” …………………………………………………………… 28 Utilizing Renshon’s Design to Create XRel Data Set ……………………… 32 #"! ! Criteria for Extracting Religious Rhetoric …………………………………… 34 Results of Comparative Analysis …………………………………… 37 Discussion of Comparative Analysis ………………………………… 39 Conclusion of Comparative Analysis………………………………… 55 III. Methods and Results Part 2: Qualitative Analysis ……………………………… 59 Autobiographical Analysis of George W. Bush …………………………… 60 Themes of Decision Points ………………………………………… 62 Implications of American Religious Nationalism …………………… 63 Religious Influences on George W. Bush …………………………………… 65 Period 1: Religious Influences as a Pre-Teen………………………… 65 Period 2: Religious Influences as a Teen …………………………… 69 Period 3: Religious Influences as a Young Adult (18-25) …………… 69 Period 4: Religious Influences as an Adult (26-40)…………………… 70 Period 5: Religious Influences as a Governor………………………… 74 Period 6: Religious Influences as President Pre-9/11………………… 76 Period 7: Religious Influences Post-9/11 and Declaration of War…… 78 Causal Link Hypothesis of Religion to Crisis Presidential Decision-making 79 Albert Bandura’s Theory of Triadic Reciprocality (Expanded) …… 80 Subsystem of Religious Triadic Reciprocality ……………………… 82 Causal Link Hypothesis ……………………………………………… 83 IV. Discussion and Conclusion ……………………………………………………… 85 Protection: Nexus Between Religion and Presidential Decision-making …… 86 Religious Mentors and Protection …………………………………… 88 #""! ! American Religious Nationalism and Protection …………………… 90 Personal Faith and Protection ……………………………………… 97 Case Studies of Bush’s Subsystem of Religious Triadic Reciprocality …… 102 Case Study 1 of Bush’s Religious Triadic Subsystem ……………… 102 Case Study 2 of Bush’s Religious Triadic Subsystem ……………… 106 Case Study 3 of Bush’s Religious Triadic Subsystem ……………… 108 Religion Energizes the Nucleus of Self-efficacy …………………………… 110 Application of the Causal Link Hypothesis ………………………………… 113 Further Investigation on Religion and Presidential Decision-making ……… 116 Appendix 1: Manuscripts of Atheized Presidential Speeches ……………………… 121 Phase 1 Speeches: Pre-Presidency ………………………………………… 121 Phase 2 Speeches: Pre-September 11th Presidency…………………………… 148 Phase 3 Speeches: Post-September 11th Presidency ………………………… 173 Phase 4 Speeches: Second Term Presidency ……………………………… 246 Appendix 2: Analysis of Decision Points …………………………………………… 355 Bibliography ………………………………………………………………………… 411 #"""! ! List of Tables Table 1. The Operational Code ……………………………………………………… 11 Table 2. Steps in the Verbs in Context System for Coding Verbs ………………… 12 Table 3. Time Periods under Examination ………………………………………… 29 Table 4. The Operational Code of George W. Bush (Ren and XRel) ……………… 38 Table 5. The Operational Code Profile of George W. Bush during Phase 3 ……… 41 Table 6. The Operational Code (Verbs in Context System Indices) ……………… 58 Table 7. Summary of Religious References by Comparison in Decision Points …… 61 Table 8. American Religious Nationalism with or without References Per Chapter in Decision Points ……………………………………………………… 64 Table 9. Religious References Per Chapter in Decision Points …………………… 73 "$! ! List of Diagrams Diagram 1. Directional Causation: Religion, Confrontational Impulses, and Rhetoric 51 Diagram 2. Bandura’s Schematization of Triadic Reciprocal Causation …………… 81 Diagram 3. Determinants in Religious Subsystem of Triadic Reciprocal Causation… 82 Diagram 4. Religious Triadic Subsystem in the Cognitive Factor…………………… 83 Diagram 5. “Protection” Between Religious Subsystem and Cognitive Factor……… 87 Diagram 6. Protection Affects Self-efficacy in Superordinate