Aussie mine* Reaping the rewards A review of trends in the Australian mid-tier mining industry June 2008 Table of contents Introduction 5 Executive summary 6 Financial highlights 7 Mid-tier industry in perspective 9 Movements in the Mid-tier 50 9 Market capitalisation 10 Mid-tier 50 profi le: New Hope Corporation Limited 13 Exploration expenditure 17 Climate change 23 Aggregated industry fi nancial statements 27 Top line summary 27 Aggregated industry income statements 27 Aggregated industry balance sheets 30 Aggregated industry cash fl ow statement 32 Glossary 35 List of Mid-tier 50 companies analysed 36 Explanatory notes for aggregated fi nancial information 37 Contacting PwC 38 Other PwC mining publications 39 It is evident that 2007 was a year that the mid-tier Australian mining sector was reaping the rewards. Introduction Welcome to the PricewaterhouseCoopers second annual review of trends in the mid-tier Australian mining industry. This report focuses on the results of the largest 50 mining companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange with a market capitalisation of less than $5 billion at 31 December 2007 (the “Mid-tier 50”). This report provides an overview of the fi nancial performance of the mid-tier mining sector and explores industry issues such as climate change and exploration. It is evident that 2007 was a year that the mid-tier Australian mining sector was reaping the rewards. Thank you for your interest in this report. We trust you fi nd it interesting and informative. Tim Goldsmith Derek Kidley Australian and Global Mining Leader Australian Resources Leader PricewaterhouseCoopers PricewaterhouseCoopers 5 Executive summary The Mid-tier 50 sector has again had a spectacular year by any measure. Aggregate market capitalisation has increased by 68.5% for the 50 companies analysed. This is at a time when, in general, global fi nancial markets have been under pressure compared with recent years. Similar to last year, the industry’s success has occurred on the back of strong commodity prices and increased production. These factors have resulted in the Mid-tier 50 companies delivering extraordinary shareholder value. There has been a marked increase in the number and value of to prepare themselves now. The range of issues that climate transactions that have occurred within the Mid-tier 50 since change raises for companies is broad, including reputation and June 2006. Fifteen major M&A transactions totalling $US11.9 brand positioning, risk and pricing. This is a long-term issue and billion were completed or pending. Part of this refl ects an companies need to be implementing strategies, systems and increased interest in the Australian resources sector from procedures to deal with a carbon-strained world. Chinese state-owned investors. Notwithstanding the good news for the sector, it has not been We welcome the interest from China. In the 1960’s and 1970’s immune to the systemic reach of the credit crunch. The diffi culty the Japanese provided vital funding that was used to develop companies are facing in securing debt on favourable terms leads our resources base and we hope that the Chinese can provide to project delays and decreased investor confi dence. It has the same stimulus. The challenge for the Australian Government been unfortunate to see companies with otherwise good assets is to ensure that Chinese investment remains in our long-term lose shareholder value as the market reacts to the debt crisis. national interest. The steady rise in the S&P/ASX 300 Metals and Mining Index experienced earlier in 2007 has become more volatile since late One area that continues to expand is exploration. In the August 2007 as markets try to gauge the extent of the global current year, exploration spending and metres drilled increased slowdown and the impact of the credit crunch on the sector. signifi cantly; however metres drilled remain well below levels of a decade ago. Further, Australia is still falling behind our overseas Events such as the collapse of Opes Prime and subsequent competitors such as Canada that has successfully used initiatives trading halts have resulted in companies losing considerable such as a fl ow through share scheme to drive exploration. amounts of money, executives and investors losing shares The industry expected the Rudd Labor Government to move supporting margin loans and large parcels of shares being quickly and introduce a fl ow through share scheme as a matter traded. of priority, as promised in the election campaign. If Australian exploration activity does not continue to grow strongly, the Our list of mid-tier companies bade farewell to three nation’s ability to reap the rewards from its rich natural resources miners this year as their market capitalisation moved above over the long term will be severely impaired. A fl ow through the $5 billion upper threshold we use to defi ne the sector. share scheme would promote exploration activity and help keep However, the sector remains profi table, cashed up and ready Australia globally competitive. to exploit the opportunities presented by continuing global demand for commodities and we welcome a number of new An issue on everyone’s lips is climate change. With the entrants to our Mid-tier 50. introduction of an emissions trading scheme by 2010 with strict policy and reporting requirements, industry participants need Financial highlights 2007 2006 Change A$m A$m % Revenue 12,997 8,590 51% EBITDA margin % 27% 29% Net profi t 1,899 1,333 42% Dividends paid (785) (634) 24% Dividend payout ratio 41% 47% Net operating cash infl ows 2,603 1,937 34% Net fi nancing cash infl ows 2,355 1,376 29% Cash taxes (paid)/refunded (579) (314) 85% Cash 3,973 2,476 60% Property plant & equipment 12,664 7,633 66% Total borrowings 3,783 2,248 68% Net assets 13,235 8,290 60% Debt to equity ratio 22% 21% Current ratio 1.92 2.23 The Mid-tier 50 have mined their way to another remarkable The appreciation of the Australian dollar against its US result for the year with revenues up 51%, profi ts up 42% and counterpart to record post-fl oat levels is having a signifi cant operating cash fl ows up 34%. impact on unhedged US$ revenue streams and federal income tax payments have risen by 85% (excluding royalties, licence The balance sheet has continued to strengthen with signifi cant fees and other indirect taxes). increases in cash, along with “money in the ground” assets (property, plant and equipment, development assets and The EBITDA margin of the Mid-tier 50 has decreased to 27%; capitalised exploration) that have increased in value by 66%. however, with the exclusion of outliers from our list of 50, the Gearing ratio’s have remained low; however, the current ratio group’s EBITDA margin shows an increase from 32% to 37% has decreased because of increased borrowings and escalating in 2007. Overall effi ciencies gained from increased production operating costs. volumes and commodity price strength appears to be outstripping cost and exchange rate pressures. Shareholders were rewarded with a 24% increase in dividends; however, the payout ratio has decreased as the Mid-tier 50 2007 can therefore be remembered as a year when the re-invested in development and exploration in a bid to drive Australasian mid-tier miners were reaping the rewards. The 2008 future production growth. year looks more challenging in an increasingly uncertain world, however we expect miners with low cost projects in production This fantastic result has been achieved on the back of the to be able to build on their recent success. continued strength in commodity markets and the rush to increase production. But challenges remain. Operating costs are increasing because of escalating demand for labour and materials (mining services as well as the mining industry), cost blow outs and time delays on new projects and infrastructure bottlenecks. 7 2 The 2008 year looks more challenging in an increasingly uncertain world, however we expect miners with low cost projects in production to be able to build on their recent success. Mid-tier industry in perspective Movements in the Mid-tier 50 M&A activity The structure of the Mid-tier 50 has continued to evolve over There has been a marked increase in the number and value of the past year. Lihir Gold, Oxiana and Fortescue Metals Group transactions that have occurred within the Mid-tier 50 since have moved beyond the Mid-tier 50 as their market capitalisation 2006; 15 major M&A transactions, totalling $US11.9 billion, were exceeded $5 billion for the fi rst time. They join BHP Billiton, Rio completed or pending at 31 December 2007. Tinto, Coal & Allied, Alumina, Newcrest and Zinifex to make up the 9 listed companies that exceed our Mid-tier 50 ceiling. This ongoing M&A activity is driven by a number of factors, including the pursuit of diversifi cation and economies of scale. Other noteworthy points include: Escalating project development costs and time delays in bringing new projects to market make acquisitions increasingly attractive. • 30 of the 50 remain. That said, the recent changes in global fi nancial markets may make accessing equity and debt to exploit M&A opportunities • Of the 20 companies that have exited, 3 have exceeded our more diffi cult. market capitalisation threshold, 12 have been overtaken in size and 4 have merged or been acquired (the fi nancial results on 1 entity were not available in time for our review). • The 20 new entrants, by commodity, are gold (5), iron ore (4), nickel (3), coal (2), base metals (2) and other (4). Table 1: Mid-tier 50 exits due to acquisitions