Project for the Study on JABODETABEK Public Transportation Policy Implementation Strategy (JAPTraPIS) FINAL REPORT: Summary 5 OUTLINE OF REVISED TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN BY JUTPI 1) Overview In the JUTPI Project, the Comprehensive Transport Master Plan for JABODETABEK was revised based on the SITRAMP Study Master Plan taking into account of the updated urban transport demand and the central and local government plans such as PTM and RTRW. The revised plan was submitted to the Indonesian government in 2011 and being evaluated for the approval of the President. This revised plan is the basis of the planning for road-based public transport system in JAPTraPIS. In this chapter, the outline of the revised transport master plan by the JUTPI Project is outlined. In the revision of the transport master plan, the following major issues are examined: • Evaluation of Progress of the SITRAMP Study Master Plan • Socio Economic Changes Between 2002 and 2010 • Future Perspectives and Travel Demand 2) Development Goals and Strategies The JUTPI Project, after analysis of socio-economic changes from 2002-2010 trends, supports the goals set in previous Transport Master Plans which are outlined as: (1) Efficiency in transport system to support economic activities – citing the economic loss caused by congestion and improvements to efficiency through managing supply and demand factors (2) Equity in transport to all members in society – this relates specifically to provide affordable mobility options to vulnerable sections of society. (3) Environmental betterment related to transport - specifically air pollution and noise are the environmental factor to be considered. (4) Transportation safety and security – specifically raises minimizing accidents of road and rail transport. Strategies for the development of regional trunk transportation system are also defined as follows: • Development of Primary Transport System to Support Inter-regional Cargo and Passenger Transport Demand • East-West Strategic Transport Corridor Development • Strengthening Accessibility between Urban Centers in Jabodetabek The JUTPI Project proposes four key urban transport policies and strategies to support the previously outline goals, these policies and strategies are the basis of the Master Plan. 3) Urban Transport Development Scenarios The revised plan nominates three urban transportation system development scenarios to evaluate their efficiency and appropriateness. These include: (1) Intensive Highway Network Development Scenario - includes six inner toll roads and non-toll elevated roads with an alternative for intra-urban tollway is East West link between Jakarta Merak Toll Road at Tomang and on the Jakarta Intraurban tollway N-S 5-1 Project for the Study on JABODETABEK Public Transportation Policy Implementation Strategy (JAPTraPIS) FINAL REPORT: Summary Link at Cempak Putih. (2) Intensive Public Transportation System Development Scenario - includes all the proposed rail-based public transportation system including three East - West MRT system, with the Monorail Green Line included with its extension to Ragnan Zoo. (3) Intensive Highway and Public Transportation Development Scenario which accelerates both highway network development and public transportation system development, and where they overlap are built as an integrated elevated road and an underground MRT, citing a Tokyo example. 4) Future Public Transport Demand (1) Assumption for Travel Demand Forecast The future population framework by region was set as shown in Table 5.1. The residential area would spread to outside of DKI Jakarta and work place locations would also spread out, but the highest density would remain in the CBD area. Table 5.1 Future Population Framework by Region Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 DKI Jakarta 9,588 9,883 10,066 10,161 10,263 Bogor 7,484 7,983 8,432 8,828 9,247 Tangerang 5,940 6,478 6,946 7,382 7,851 Bekasi 5,021 5,356 5,657 5,923 6,204 BODETABEK 18,444 19,817 21,036 22,132 23,301 JABODETABEK 28,033 29,701 31,102 32,294 33,564 Source: Population Census and JUTPI Estimate Table 5.2 shows the projected GRDP and per capita GRDP in JABODETABEK. JUTPI assumed that GRDP growth rate of JABODETABEK is 5% from 2008 considering the recent trend of GRDP. Table 5.2 Projected GRDP and Per Capita GRDP Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 GRDP (bill. Rupiah) 419,611 548,232 699,698 893,011 1,139,734 1,454,621 Per Capita GRDP (mil. Rupiah) 17.7 21.7 26.1 31.9 39.2 48.2 Source: JUTPI (2) Demand Forecasting Methodology JUTPI used conventional 4-step method to develop demand forecasting model for JABODETABEK. JUTPI model has its root from SITRAMP model. Since the 2004 SITRAMP study, there has been a considerable number of changes in trip making and trip pattern in the study area. To capture these changes, JUTPI conducted several surveys such as commuter survey 2010 and person tracking survey 2010 based on which a comprehensive JUTPI model is developed using state-of-the-art software CUBE. (3) Travel Demand Forecast Trip Production and Attraction: Figure 5.1 shows total trip production/attraction forecasted for years 2020 and 2030 and that of year 2010. 5-2 Project for the Study on JABODETABEK Public Transportation Policy Implementation Strategy (JAPTraPIS) FINAL REPORT: Summary Figure 5.1 Present and FutureTrips in JABODETABEK Source: JUTPI Trip Distribution: Trip OD matrices of JABODETABEK for the base year 2010 and forecast years 2020 and 2030 are developed. Modal Choice: The modal share for each of the analysis case (scenario) in the study area is estimated. The trips by non-motorized modes are excluded. The modal share for the Case 0 (Do Nothing Scenario) and Case 2 (Highway Moderate and Public Transport Intensive Development Scenario) is show in Figure 5.2 and Figure 5.3, respectively. In JAPTraPIS, estimated demand of Case 2 was used for the planning of road-based public transport master plan. The modal share of public transport increases from 27% in 2010 to 34% in 2020. Figure 5.2 Modal Choice for Case 0 (Do Nothing) ı 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 20% 53% 27% 2020 28% 50% 22% 2030 31% 48% 20% Car Motorcycle Public Transport Source: JUTPI 5-3 Project for the Study on JABODETABEK Public Transportation Policy Implementation Strategy (JAPTraPIS) FINAL REPORT: Summary Figure 5.3 Modal Choice for Case 2 (Highway Moderate and Public Transport Intensive) ı 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 20% 53% 27% 2020 24% 42% 34% 2030 25% 36% 39% Car Motorcycle Public Transport Source: JUTPI 5) Revised Urban Transport Master Plan (1) Key Project Components The revised master plan lists a total of 120 projects. It covers entire area of urban transport system categorized as follows: • Road Network Development • Improvement of Traffic Control System and Demand Management • Bus Transport System and Interchange Facility Development • Railway System Development • Access to International and Inter-regional Transportation • Improvement of Transport Safety and Security • Environment Betterment • Measure in Urban Planning • Institutional Setup and Reform • Financial Arrangement (2) Revised Urban Transport Network The revised master plan proposed backbone network of urban transport system up to target year of 2020 (refer to Figure 5.4 and Figure 5.5). A number of ring roads and radial roads, inner toll roads, non-toll elevated roads, road widening and access roads to station also were proposed in the master plan. As for public transportation network, a number of busway developments, MRT, airport access and monorail were proposed. 5-4 Project for the Study on JABODETABEK Public Transportation Policy Implementation Strategy (JAPTraPIS) FINAL REPORT: Summary Figure 5.4 2020 Road Network by JUTPI Revised Master Plan Source: JUTPI Revised Master Plan Figure 5.5 2020 Public Transport Network by JUTPI Revised Master Plan Source: JUTPI Revised Master Plan 5-5 Project for the Study on JABODETABEK Public Transportation Policy Implementation Strategy (JAPTraPIS) FINAL REPORT: Summary 6 DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND STRATEGIES 1) Core Issues In order to deliver a relevant and appropriate Master Plan and associated recommendations the study identified core issues facing the study area including: • The challenges of traffic congestion and decreasing mobility • A transport network approach • Public transport sustainability • Specific issues of TransJakarta: including i) performance of the busway system, ii) management and customer service delivery, iii) system speed and iv) system control. • Development of a city transport system These included assessment and analysis of the issues to be able to develop a strategic planning framework (how to approach the project planning). 2) Goals and Supporting Strategies for Urban Mobility A Strategic Planning Framework must 1) identify goals supported by objectives that are sufficiently tangible and realistic to enable all stakeholders to understand clearly what needs to be achieved; and 2) develop strategies and actions and to be able to declare success when goals are reached. This JAPTraPIS study makes a preliminary list of goals and objectives as follows: (1) To make JABODETABEK a prosperous and livable city (2) To create a highly efficient transport network (3) To reduce car use through supply and demand measures (4) To create efficient urban transport systems: including i) efficiency in infrastructure, ii) efficiency in transport management and operation, and iii) efficiency delivers sustainability and equity. (5) To improve system management supported by a sustainable business model 3) Project Approach Based on the assessment and analysis of the core issues, the strategic project approach was developed describing the areas of project work and outcomes. It was evident that a comprehensive approach was needed, encompassing planning and infrastructure, systems and operations design and effective business and management frameworks. A number of approaches were evaluated and tested which informed the final plan. Clearly the evaluation showed that the planned MRT is a vital part of the future network but on its own would not deliver the wide network necessary to provide alternative public transport options.