~om ~ULL~T TO ~~ LLOT~ ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE TO POSTCONFLICT SOCIETIES owledgments everal colleagues, Madeline Williams, and Kimberly friends, and experts Mahling Clark. have been of indis­ I have no words to thank the well­ pensable help in com­ known scholars who wrote the six pleting this evaluation. country case studies: Enrique Baloyra While it is not possible (El Salvador); Rafael Lopez-Pintor to mention aU of them, (Nicaragua); J. Michael Turner, Sue I must acknowledge a Nelson, and Kimberly Mahling Clark few whose support (Mozambique); Frederick Brown has been criticaL (Cambodia); Marina Ottaway (An­ gola); and John Harbeson (Ethiopia). The summary versions of their excel­ Larry Garber, acting administrator lent papers are being published for USAID's Policy and Program separately. Coordination Bureau and a pioneer in international electoral assistance, CDIE organized a workshop on prOVided guidance throughout the November 14-16, 1996, that brought evaluation process. Without his together a core group of people to timely intellectual leadership, this discuss the case studies. The discus­ evaluation would not have material­ sants--Tom Beyer, Horacio Boneo, ized. Gerald Britan, director of the Charles Costello, Terrence Lyons, and Center for Development Information Mark Schneider-provided valuable and Evaluation, Michael Calavan, insight based on their own expertise. former director of the Programs and Contributions were also made by Operations Assessment Division of other participants, including Todd CDIE, and Susan Merrill, the current Amani, John Anderson, Murl Baker, director of POA, have been unwaver­ Rick Barton, Gwen Bevis, Harry Blair, ing in their support and provided me Polly Byers, Andy Castonguay, the necessary resources to conduct Nadereh Chahmirzadi, Clinton the evaluation. Doggett, Dina Esposito, Elizabeth Fetter, Judy Gilmore, Michael The design for the evaluation was Henning, Gerald Hyman, Keith Klein, made final in an April 1996 work­ Scott Lansell. Daniel Lesmez, Michael shop attended by technical experts Magan, Heather McHugh, Ned and USAID officials. I very much McMahon, Johanna Mendelson, benefited from the thoughtful com­ Deborah Mendelson, Norman Olsen, ments and suggestions of Rafael Cambodian ballot and Jeanne Pryor, Kathleen Smith, Ed ofa rally in Lopez-Pintor, Ron Gould, Patrick photographs Stewart, Charles Stonecipher, George Nicaragua and voting in Merloe, Tom Beyer, David Hirshman, Vickers, Richard Whelden, Jennifer Ethiopia on cover, courtesy of Johanna Mendelson, Amy Young, International Foundation for Windsor, and Amy Young. Election Systems. I am also grateful to Thomas monograph. Marina and I have very Carothers at the Carnegie Endowment much profited from the valuable for International Peace for sponsoring comments from many colleagues, a half-day session to discuss a paper including Sergio Guzman, Sue in which I outlined a set of lessons Nelson, Susan Reichle, Sara based on a comparative analysis of Steinmetz, and Jim Vermillion. We the case studies. A group of promi­ could not dream of better editors nent experts on elections and war­ than Laurie Denton and Ross torn societies-including Nicole Ball, Bankson. Santiago Canton, Betsy Clark, Jeff Fischer, Steve Griner, Patrick Merioe, Finally, I wish to thank my former Tim Reiser, Nicholas van de Walle, colleague Carolyn Knapp, who and George Vickers-participated in assisted me throughout the conduct this workshop, which helped to of this evaluation with remarkable shape our thinking on the subject. skill and efficiency. I am especially grateful to Marina KruSHNA KUMAR Ottaway, who coauthored the present U.S. Agency for International Development For word n 1996, USAID initiated a chore of drafting a new constitution. program of evaluation Finally, "free and fair" elections can studies to examine the open a window of opportunity for the further democratization and roles that international reconciliation of these societies. assistance plays in the democratic reconstruc­ The report examines three areas: tion ofpostconjlict societ­ the planning, conduct, and outcome ies. of postconflict elections; the role of international electoral assistance; and The studies are designed to the effects of elections on subsequent draw policy and programmatic democratization and reconciliation lessons, which can be used by processes. The study draws from a USAID and other donor agencies to series of in-depth analyses of develop and implement their assis­ postconflict elections in six countries tance programs in postconflict situa­ (Angola, Cambodia, EI Salvador, tions. The framework for these Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nicara­ evaluations was initially articulated in gua) commissioned by USAID's Rebuilding Societies After Civil Wat:5, Center for Development Information which was edited by Krishna Kumar and Evaluation (CDIE). The case and published by Lynne Rienner in studies were prepared by eminent 1996. scholars who had the opportunity to observe firsthand the elections under From Bullets to Ballots presents the consideration and who used a com­ findings of the first program evalua­ mon framework in conducting their tion undertaken in this series. The analyses. Krishna Kumar, who is study looks generally at elections leading the overall evaluation for held after the signing of a peace CDIE, and Marina Ottaway, a political accord. These elections are often scientist and author of one of the critical to the political reconciliation country studies, deserve considerable of war-torn societies. They are credit for synthesizing the various designed to settle the contentious experiences reported in each of the issue of political legitimacy: ballots, case studies, as well as incorporating not bullets, should determine who information from other postconflict represents the people and who elections. governs the country. Moreover, in countries where a constitutional The authors have identified many framework for democracy does not important lessons and have proposed exist, those elected in a postconflict precise recommendations. As the election are often given the critical study demonstrates, postconflict elections are not a panacea. The straints, are often immense and divert political and practical challenges that resources from other critical areas of must be overcome to ensure a posi­ economic and political reconstruc­ tive outcome are enormous. More­ tion. over, as recent events in Cambodia illustrate, the risks of backsliding A final comment about events in following a seemingly successful Cambodia, which have taken a electoral process remain for quite serious turn for the worse since the some time. body of this report was completed. In developing lessons for the future, Although the magnitude and we must avoid applying a superficial intensity of international engagement analysis to the overall impact of may not necessarily be the same, international involvement during the support for democratization processes critical period surrounding the 1993 in postconflict settings should not be elections. More important, the inter­ terminated simply because a reason­ national community, including the ably successful election has occurred. United States and the United Nations, At the same time, we should not lose should not use setbacks as an excuse sight of the opportunities afforded by to avoid further engagement in peace accords and the fact that postconflict peacemaking. While the elections with significant international risk of failure in these politically involvement are an important tool sensitive situations must be acknowl­ available to policymakers and nego­ edged from the outset, isolationism tiators. and abstention are not viable alterna­ tives in today's interdependent world. Recognizing the constructive role Rather, we must attempt through elections can play in a postconflict studies such as the present one to situation, the authors correctly shift learn from our experiences so as to attention to considerations of timing, minimize the prospects of failure in modalities, and costs. Meaningful the future. postconflict elections cannot neces­ sarily be organized to coincide with a I congratulate COlE for this excel­ military exit strategy. Nor does it lent study, which I hope will receive make sense to compromise basic urgent consideration by the interna­ democratic principles if a key goal of tional community. the postconflict election is to lay the basis for the evolution of a demo­ LARRy GARBER cratic sOciety. Finally, the expendi­ Acting Assistant to the Administrator tures required for a successful Bureau of Policy and Program postconflict election, particularly Coordination where there are scheduling con- -~tions ar-torn Societies CHAPTERl that war would not necessarily achieve their objectives. Peace accords have been signed and carried out in countries as umerous factors have diverse as Angola, Cambodia, contributed to the and Nicaragua. There is, more­ resolution of civil wars over, new hope for the peaceful the world over. Among settlement of many existing them: the end of the conflicts. Cold War, growing war fatigue, decline of war An essential element in all peace support from superpow­ accords signed to end internal con­ ers, international flicts has been the provision for "free and fair" elections. The warring mediation, and the realization factions, often under outside persua- by leaders of warring factions Pre ared by Krish «umar, Center for Development Information and Evalua ~ o n , U•. Agency for International Development, and Marina Ottaway,