LINKED DANGERS TO CIVILIZATION John Scales Avery March 11, 2020 2 Contents 1 DANGERS FROM COVID-19 13 1.1 Rapid mass transport and pandemics . 13 1.2 Will the explosively growing COVID-19 epidemic become a global pandemic? 13 1.3 The language of molecular complementarity . 15 1.4 Paul Ehrlich, the father of chemotherapy . 16 1.5 Mechnikov . 21 1.6 Burnet, Jerne and the clonal theory of immunity . 23 1.7 K¨ohler,Milstein and monoclonal antibodies . 27 1.8 Molecular biology and genetic engineering . 27 1.9 A monoclonal vaccine against COVID-19? . 41 1.10 Mass-production of a COVID-19 vaccine . 44 1.11 Balancing dangers in an emergency . 44 2 CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE 51 2.1 The climate emergency . 51 2.2 The UK declares a climate emergency . 51 2.3 The 2018 IPCC report . 53 2.4 Greta Thunberg . 54 2.5 Worldwide school strike, 15 March, 2019 . 57 2.6 Solar energy . 57 2.7 Wind energy . 64 2.8 Hydroelectric power . 67 2.9 Energy from the ocean . 69 2.10 Biomass . 72 2.11 Geothermal energy . 77 2.12 Hydrogen technologies . 80 2.13 Reducing emissions from the cement industry . 83 2.14 Reducing emissions from transportation sectors . 86 2.15 Renewables are now much cheaper than fossil fuels! . 95 2.16 Lester R. Brown . 98 2.17 We must create a livable future world . 100 2.18 The Evangelicals believe that there is no need to act . 114 2.19 Banks give fossil fuel giants $1.9 trillion since Paris . 114 3 4 CONTENTS 2.20 Fossil fuel industry's disinformation campaign . 122 3 THE DANGER OF THERMONUCLEAR WAR 133 3.1 Militarism and money . 133 3.2 Ethology . 133 3.3 Population genetics . 138 3.4 Hope for the future . 140 3.5 Religion and ethnic identity . 140 3.6 Tribal markings; ethnicity; pseudospeciation . 141 3.7 The arms race prior to World War 1 . 150 3.8 Krupp, Thyssen and Germany's steel industry . 152 3.9 Colonialism and the outbreak of the First World War . 152 3.10 Prescott Bush and Hitler . 153 3.11 Fritz Thyssen supports Hitler's rise to power . 155 3.12 Eisenhower's farewell address . 161 3.13 The nuclear arms race . 163 3.14 Global famine produced by nuclear war . 169 3.15 Military-industrial complexes today . 171 3.16 A culture of violence . 179 3.17 The threats and costs of war . 182 3.18 The threat of nuclear war . 188 3.19 Flaws in the concept of nuclear deterrence . 192 3.20 Dangers of nuclear power generation . 196 3.21 Militarism is the US national religion . 202 4 THE DANGER OF WIDESPREAD FAMINE 221 4.1 Several billion people might suffer . 221 4.2 Child mortality rates . 221 4.3 The threat of large-scale famine . 222 4.4 Optimum population in the distant future . 224 4.5 Population growth and the Green Revolution . 225 4.6 Energy-dependence of modern agriculture . 228 4.7 Effects of climate change on agriculture . 230 4.8 Harmful effects of industrialized farming . 235 4.9 The demographic transition . 237 5 THE GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS 245 5.1 People fleeing from wars and climate change . 245 5.2 A UN ruling on climate refugees . 245 5.3 Climate change as genocide . 246 5.4 The United Nations High Commission on Refugees . 247 5.5 Populations displaced by sea level rise . 247 5.6 Populations displaced by drought and famine . 248 CONTENTS 5 5.7 Populations displaced by rising temperatures . 248 5.8 Populations displaced by war . 249 5.9 Political reactions to migration . 249 5.10 A more humane response to the refugee crisis . 250 6 THE LOSS OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS 257 6.1 Drifting towards neo-fascism . 257 6.2 Racism, colonialism and exceptionalism . 257 6.3 Heart of Darkness . 257 6.4 The racism of Cecil Rhodes . 261 6.5 Nazi atrocities . 262 6.6 Donald trump was elected on a platform of racism . 268 6.7 Children in cages . 274 6.8 Demonizing the Squad . 279 6.9 Jair Bolsonaro, the Trump of the Tropics . 281 6.10 Revival of Nazi ideology after World War II . 284 6.11 Trump copies Hitler's rhetoric . 298 7 APACOLYPTIC LOSS OF BIODICERSITY 311 7.1 A new mass extinction . 311 7.2 A warning from the World Bank . 314 7.3 Permian-Triassic extinction event . 315 7.4 The Holocene (Anthropocene) extinction . 316 7.5 Global warming and atmospheric water vapor . 318 7.6 The albedo effect . 318 7.7 The methane hydrate feedback loop . 321 7.8 A feedback loop from warming of soils . 321 7.9 Drying of forests and forest fires . 322 7.10 Tipping points and feedback loops . 324 7.11 Climate change denial . 326 7.12 Humanity betrayed by the mass media . 326 7.13 From child author to marine biologist . 328 7.14 The Sea Around Us . 332 7.15 The Silent Spring . 334 7.16 Overuse of pesticides and the insect apocalypse . 338 8 INTOLERABLE ECONOMIC INEQUALITY 345 8.1 Shocking statistics . 345 8.2 Benefits of equality . 345 8.3 Extreme inequality today . 348 8.4 Oligarchy replaces democracy in many countries . 348 8.5 Media in the service of powerholders . 351 8.6 Television as a part of our educational system . 351 6 CONTENTS 8.7 Neglect of climate change in the mass media . 353 8.8 Climate change denial in mass media . 354 8.9 Showing unsustainable lifestyles in mass media . 357 8.10 Alternative media . 357 8.11 Outstanding voices calling for climate action . 358 INTRODUCTION1 Contrasting rates of change Cultural evolution depends on the non-genetic storage, transmission, diffu- sion and utilization of information. The development of human speech, the invention of writing, the development of paper and printing, and finally, in modern times, computers and the Internet: all these have been crucial steps in society’s explosive accumulation of information and knowledge. Human cultural evolution proceeds at a constantly-accelerating speed, so great in fact that it threatens to shake society to pieces. The strong contrast between the slow rate of genetic change and the lightning-like, constantly accelerating rate of cultural change means that we face the serious problems of today with an emotional nature that has changed little since our ancestors lived in small tribes, competing for territory on the grasslands of Africa. It is not surprising that human nature still contains an element of tribalism, to which militarists can all too easily appeal. Within cultural evolution, there are also contrasting rates of change. Sci- ence and technology move extremely rapidly, compared with the slow rate of change of our institutions and habits. This is part of the explanation of our inadequate response to the dangers of catastrophic climate change and thermonuclear war. Thus, while the explosive growth of knowledge has brought many benefits, the problem of achieving a stable, peaceful and sustainable world remains serious, challenging and unsolved. Some of the main dangers that we face today are listed below. These dangers are linked to each other, and I will try to put forward some thoughts about the various ways in which they are linked. Dangers from the COVID-19 epidemic Today, air travel takes people almost instantly between continents. Despite the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption, air.