^ -> ^ Given By U. S. SOFT. OF D' t 3^ THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY 'Jbi The Effects OF Strategic Bombing ON jAPAN^s War Economy / v / Appendix ABC OVER-ALL ECONOMIC EFFECTS DIVISION . ^ December 1946 | V^ THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY The Effects OF Strategic Bombing ON JAPAN'S War Economy Appendix ABC OVER-ALL ECONOMIC EFFECTS DIVISION December 1946 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office Washington 2 5<0. C, • Price 65 cents ,U(o3 This report was written primarily for the use of the U. S. Strategic Bombing Survey in the preparation of further reports of a more comprehensive nature. Any conclusions or opinions expressed in this report must be considered as limited to the specific material covered and as subject to further interpretation in the light of further studies conducted by the Survey. FOREWORD The United States Strategic Bombing Survey- civilians, 350 officers, and 500 enlisted men. The was established by the Secretary of War on 3 military segment of the organization was draAvn November 1944, pursuant to a directive from the from the Army to the extent of 60 percent, and late President Roosevelt. Its mission was to from the Navy to the extent of 40 percent. Both conduct an impartial and expert study of the the Army and the Navy gave the Survey all possi- effects of our aerial attack on Germany, to be used ble assistance in furnishing men, supplies, trans- in connection with air attaclss on Japan and to port, and information. The Survey operated establish a basis for evaluating the importance and from headquarters established in Tokyo early in potentialities of air power as an instrument of September 1945, with subheadquarters in Nagoya, military strategy for planning the future develop- Osaka, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki, and with mobile ment of the United States armed forces and for teams operating in other parts of Japan, the islands determining future economic policies with respect of the Pacific, and the Asiatic mamland. to the national defense. A summary report and It was possible to reconstruct much of wartime some 200 supporting reports containing the Japanese military planning and execution, engage- findings of the Survey in Germany have been ment by engagement, and campaign by campaign, published. and to secure reasonably accurate statistics on On 15 August 1945, President Truman requested Japan's economy and war production, plant by that the Survey conduct a similar study of the plant, and industry by industry. In addition, effects of all types of air attack in the war against studies were conducted on Japan's over-all stra- Japan, submitting reports in duplicate to the tegic plans and the background of her entry into Secretary of War and to the Secretary of the the war, the internal discussions and negotiations Navy. The officers of the Survey during its leading to her acceptance of unconditional sui- Japanese phase were: render, the course of health and morale among the civilian population, the effectiveness ot the Franklin D'Olier, Chairman. Japanese civilian defense organization, and the Paul H. Nitze, Henry C. Alexander, Vice Chairmen. effects of the atomic bombs. Separate reports will issued covering each phase of the study. Harry L. Bowman, be The Survey interrogated more than 700 Japa- J. Kenneth Galbraith, Rensis Likert, nese military, government, and industrial officials. Frank A. McNamee, Jr., It also recovered and translated many documents Fred Searls, Jr., which not only have been useful to the Survey, Monroe E. Spaght, but also win furnish data valuable for other studies. Dr. Lewis R. Thompson, Arrangements have been made to turn over the Theodore P. Wright, Directors. Survey's files to the Central Intelligence Group, Walter Wdds, Secretary. through which they will be available for further The Survey's complement provided for 300 examination and distribution. Ill TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Int roduct ion 1 Conclusions: Economic effects of the strategic bombing of Japan 2 ChapfcT I. The road to Pearl Harbor 5 II. Japan's economy under stress of the war 15 III. Air attack against Japan's economy 35 IV. Effect of the air offen.sive on Japan's economy 41 V. Surrender 57 VI. Postscript on target selection 61 Apfendix , A. Allied economic intelligence on Japan: Analysis and comparisons 69 B. Gross national product of Japan 83 C. Statistical sources 97 Table 1. Relative growth of industrial and agricultural output, 1930-42 12 2. Composition of industrial output, 1930-42 12 3. Gross national product, fiscal years 1940-44 (billions of 1940 yen) 15 4. Percentage of war expenditures to gross product, Japan and the United States 16 5. Comparison of the dynamics of "real" gross national product, Japan and the United States, selected years 1930-44 17 6. Production of basic materials, Japan proper, fiscal years 1941-42 (thousands of metric tons) 20 7. Total labor conscription for essential work, 1939-42 22 8. Aircraft and engine production, fiscal years 1942-44 24 9. Capacity and production of aluminum^ 1941-45 25 10. Allocation of f)rimary aluminum, 1942-45 25 11. Japan's merchant fleet, selected months 26 12. Planned and actual merchant ship construction, 1943-44 26 13. Merchant ship building, fiscal years 1943-44 26 14. Production of naval ships, fiscal years 1942-44 (deadweight tons) . 27 15. Armament production, fiscal years 1941-44. 28 16. Production of basic materials, Japan proper, fiscal years 1942-44 : 28 17. Production and import of coal, fiscal years 1942-44 _. 28 18. Production and import of coking coal, iron ore, and pig iron, fiscal years 1942-44 29 19. Production of finished steel, fiscal years 1942-44 30 20. Crude oil production and stocks, fiscal years 1942-44 30 21. Percentage distribution of civilian labor force, by industry and sex, .Japan proper, October 1, 1940, and Feb- ruary 22, 1944 - 31 22. Civilian labor force in Japan proper, 1 October 1940 and 22 February 1944, by industry 33 23. Reduction in the cotton industry, calendar years 1937-44 33 24. Allocation of cotton and wool cloth supply, calendar years 1937-44 33 25. Distribution of Fifth AF effort against Formosan targets 38 26. Distribution of bomb tonnage by fifth and seventh AF between June 1945 and end of war 39 27. Distribution of bomb tonnage by Naval Aircraft on Japanese targets 39 28. Japanese merchant ship sinkings by Allied action, 1941-45 (thousands of gross registered tons) 43 A-1. Coal available in Japan proper, 1943-45 76 A-2. Steel ingot capacity, 1942-44 77 A-3. Steel ingot production, 1942-44 77 A-4. Stock piles of oil 80 A-5. Aviation gasoline stocks (iimer zone) 80 IV TaUe P^ee A-6. Synthetic production, 1942-44 - 80 A-7. Comparison of "real" gross national production estimates, 1940-44 1 80 A-8. Combat airplane production, 1941-45 • 81 A-9. Aluminum capaoit}-, 1943-45 , 81 A-IO. Aluminum requirements, 1943-45 - 81 All. Aluminum production, 1943-45 82 B-1. Gross national product, fiscal years 1940-44 84 H-2. War expenditures, fiscal years 1940-45 85 B-3. Army expenditures, fiscal years 1940-45 86 B-4. Expenditures of the Imperial Navy, fiscal years 1940-45 87 B-5. Expenditures of the Munitions Ministry, fiscal years 1943-45 87 B- 6. War expenditures by object, fiscal years 1940-45 87 B-7. National government expenditures 88 B-8. Derivation of national government nonwar expenditures 88 B-9. Local government expenditures, fiscal years 1940-44 89 B-10. Derivation of local government expenditures, fiscal years 1940-44 89 B-11. Private plant and equipment expenditures, fiscal years 194t-44_. 90 B-12. Derivation of residential construction activity, fiscal years 1940-44 90 B-13. Balance of international payments, fiscal years 1939-44 91 B-14. Consumer expenditures, 1940-44 f2 B-1 5. Wholesale prices in Japan 96 C-1. Population, armed forces, and civilian labor force, by sex and activity, Japan proper, 1 October 1930- 1 October 1940, 22 February 1944 -- 98 C-2. Civilian population, labor force and unoccupied, by age and sex, Japan proper, 1 October 1930-1 October 1940, 22 February 1944 99 C-3. Percentage distribution of civilian labor force, by sex and activity, Japan proper, 1 October 1930-1 October 1940, 22 February 1944 100 C-4. Percentage distribution of males and females in civilian labor force by activity, Japan proper, 1 October 1930-1 October 1940, 22 February 1944 -• 100 -C-5. Labor force, mining and manufacturing and construction, by sex and industry, Japan proper, 1 October 1930-22 February 1944 101 C-6. Workers in the labor force, aged 14-59, manufacturing and construction, Japan proper, 1 October 1940 and 22 February 1944 102 G-7. Labor conscription into essential industries, Japan proper, 1939-45 1 102 C-8. Survey of resident Koreans, by industry and occupation, Japan proper, 31 December 1941 103 C-9. Number of Korean contract workers brought into Japan proper annually, by type of work as- signed, 1939-45 ,- 103 C-10. Survey of Korean and Chinese workers previously introduced in groups and prisoners of war among regularly employed workers in factories and mines, Japan proper, 30 June 1944 104 C-11. Students mobilized for work by school and type of work, Japan proper, October 1944, February 1945, and July 1945 ^ 104 C-12. Index of employment and earnings of factory and mine workers in establishments not owned by Govern- ment, Japan proper, monthly, 1940-45 106 C-13. Industrial employment and productive man hours in 45 urban areas, Japan proper, monthly, October 1943- 1945.." 107 August -_ C-14.