Number 3 April-June 1984 In This Issue ' The Mozambican - Floods ' South Af rican Talks Fol low On March 16, 1984, Mozambique and dock and rail use, and tourism . Drought South Africa signed a non-agression In this issue we try to answer some agreement which, if respected by both of the questions about how and why The worst drought in Mozambique's sides, would prevent either country talks between Mozambique and South recent history—lasting almost four from being used as a base for launch- African came about and to present years—has now been followed by one ing military actions against the other . documents and articles which explain of the worst floods of all time . Floods The Nkomati Agreement, as it is also what Mozambique's position has been which overran southern Mozambique known, was signed in a ceremony near in relation to these talks . To accom- at the end of January caused 109 the Nkomati River which borders both modate the material to do this, we deaths, dozens of disappearances and countries. The signing of the security have suspended from this issue some the loss of homes for over 49,000 peo- agreement was preceded by weeks of newsletter departments, which will pie. In addition, 350,000 people lost intense discussions between the two reappear in the next issue . their family farming plots. countries and immediately became Other articles of special interest in- The first floods came after 22 hours the subject of discussions and elude a report of SADCC talks by of continuous rainfall accompanied by speculations worldwide . Carol Thompson, who attended the hail on January 28. The cause of the After the Nkomati Agreement was last SADCC session this past storm was tropical hurricane "Do- signed, talks continued on the use of February, and an article on US- moina" whose winds blew at speeds energy from the Cahora Bassa hydro- Mozambique relations by historian of up to 50 miles per hour . The storm electric dam by South Africa, and Allen Isaccman . was devastating: waves in the port reached 22 feet, and the Salamange River rose more than 50 feet above its normal level. In the hours following the hurricane c ; r..{ ..-~ :.~r..!~H!:`X .. .. ,.~~~ : .- 3-.-! ~.ii ; 'AMY> ..Al.:_'(i :-_ : . s::nt more than 600 persons were rescued by boats and helicopter . Five thou- sand people were forced to evacuate their homes. "Domoina" also hit regions of Swaziland and South Africa, which worsened the situation in Mozambi- que because receding waters from these regions must past through Mozambique. The country's National Disasters Commission estimated that the total cost of the damage done by floods is about $75 million . The cyclone and flood wiped out almost the entire cashew nut harvest, which is one of Mozambique's main export crops and was expected to have been especially large this year . Ten thousand tons of sugar were lost as well as 55,000 tons of maize, 15,000 tons of beans, 20,000 tons of vegetables and the entire bananna crop . Damage to the citrus crop was put at $6.5 million. At the time of the floods, thousands of families in Maputo were getting President Samora Machel delivering speech at ceremony for signing of accord, ready to harvest their first crops of with South African Prime Minister Pieter Botha to the left . (Continued on page 4) 1 Commentary on Nkomati Accord que wanted. What does it mean when one of the because they have their hands full most progressive countries in Africa fighting back attacks from this same It is clear by now what Mozambique signs a security agreement with the hostile neighbor. wants—the cessation of war within its most racist, belligerent country on the You take your case to international own borders, an end to support for the continent? forums where your neighbor is verbal- MNR and an end to South African Many people in the United States ly condemned, but the international raids, air attacks and sabotage in who follow events in southern Africa forums have no mechanism for bring- Mozambique . But what did South have termed Mozambique's signing of ing your neighbor into line . Mean- Africa want? the Nkomati Agreement a "set-back," while, you are slipping more into debt, The most obvious answer would or a "retreat ." Some even go so far as food lines grow and you are spending seem to be an end to the ANC and its to call it a "sell-out ." They feel that money you could be using for food on activities . Yet on closer examination it Mozambique should never have even building up your army. Your people are must be clear, even to South Africa considered talking to South Africa, the very patient but even they are growing that the Nkomati Accords would not continent's arch villian, until South tired. accomplish this. The ANC's deter- Africa's internal and external political You know that your neighbor's mination to rid South Africa of apar- policies changed . The problem with strength comes from the support he theid is shared by millions of blacks this assessment is that it assumes op- gets from his stronger allies far away and others inside South Africa—many tions and other paths of action for who prefer your neighbor's political of whom are not ANC members . While Mozambique that either did not exist outlook over yours . You and others try the accord assures South Africa that or were more devastating. to talk to your neighbor's allies about black South Africans will not in the Some see the Nkomati Agreement the chaos the neighbor is causing in future be able to train militarily in only as a sign of victory for South your region. But in turn, they only want Mozambique and cross over into Africa, as if it were really a surrender to talk to you about your relationship South Africa, it does not and cannot agreement by Mozambique. The truth with their arch enemy thousands of diminish in the least the pressure for is that while difficulties in Mozambi- miles away . What are your options? change already within South Africa's que resulting from South Africa's Mozambique's options were few: own borders, or the ANC's ability to in- destabilization campaign are great, 1. They could sit tight and con- fluence it. Mozambique is not yet a beaten coun- tinue to do what they have been South Africa also saw certain eco- try. Mozambique is still strong in many doing in the hopes that they nomic benefits to be gained through areas. And while Mozambique desper- would be able to reverse the situa- improved country to country ately wants and needs peace within tion before time and money run relationship. its border, Mozambican officials have out. They could continue to build What South Africa gains most from stressed repeatedly they do not want up the army and devise new the accord is the propaganda points it "at any cost." strategies for fighting the MNR, to be made from the fact that it "ap- Mozambique's decision to pursue a which has access to arms and pears" to have taken a sudden turn security agreement with South Africa material equal to their own, while toward sanity . What must be remem- does not at all appear to be a decision at the same time building up bered is that occasionally even coun- they arrived at lightly. They better than defenses to ready themselves for tries like South Africa must oblige anyone, knew what choices they had an all out attack by South Africa their allies . In this case the current and understood the consequences at some future date. U.S. administration, with the upcom- they faced from each. That they chose 2. They could, if not concerned ing elections, needs to have this path means they saw in it a way about internationalizing the con- something concrete to show for its to get something they wanted without flict, call on friendly, stronger na- poorly conceived policy of "construc- giving up what they wanted to keep tions to give them direct military tive engagement" in southern Africa. most—their independence and their assistance in the defense of their The talks between Mozambique and commitment to an end to oppression country against the South South Africa as well as those between in the region. Africans. Angola and South Africa provide the Consider Mozambique's dilema. 3. They could, if not firm in their kind of highly visible return needed. Imagine for a moment that you are a convictions, disavow their There is also the added advantage to young, black socialist nation in political and social philosophies South Africa of being able to use the southern Africa. To the south you have in the hope of gaining favor with Nkomati agreement to break out of its a neighbor with internal and external South Africa and its allies so that diplomatic isolation. policies you are strongly opposed they would no longer be seen as a The Mozambique-South Africa talks to—as they are to yours . This neigh- threat to oppression and im- do not signal the start of a new friend- bor is militarily superior and can strike perialism in the region. ship between two enemies. Nor does at any time without warning . This 4. They could talk directly with it signal a return to the pre- neighbor also supports terrorism South Africa as one sovereign na- independence economic relations bet- within your borders and manipulates tion to another, offering ,South ween Mozambique and South Africa.