United States Government Accountability Office GAO Report to Congressional Requesters August 2007 CLIMATE CHANGE Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing the Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources a GAO-07-863 August 2007 CLIMATE CHANGE Accountability Integrity Reliability Highlights Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Highlights of GAO-07-863, a report to Addressing the Effects on Federal Land congressional requesters and Water Resources Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found Climate change has implications According to experts at the GAO workshop, federal land and water for the vast land and water resources are vulnerable to a wide range of effects from climate change, resources managed by the Bureau some of which are already occurring. These effects include, among others, of Land Management (BLM), Forest (1) physical effects, such as droughts, floods, glacial melting, and sea level Service (FS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife rise; (2) biological effects, such as increases in insect and disease Service (FWS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration infestations, shifts in species distribution, and changes in the timing of (NOAA), and National Park Service natural events; and (3) economic and social effects, such as adverse impacts (NPS). These resources generally on tourism, infrastructure, fishing, and other resource uses. occur within four ecosystem types: coasts and oceans, forests, fresh Experts at the GAO workshop also identified several challenges that waters, and grasslands and resource managers face in addressing the observed and potential effects of shrublands. climate change in their management and planning efforts. In particular, BLM, FS, FWS, NOAA, and NPS have not made climate change a priority, and the GAO obtained experts’ views on agencies’ strategic plans do not specifically address climate change. (1) the effects of climate change on Resource managers focus first on near-term, required activities, leaving less federal resources and (2) the time for addressing longer-term issues such as climate change. challenges managers face in addressing climate change effects on these resources. GAO held a In addition, resource managers have limited guidance about whether or how workshop with the National to address climate change and, therefore, are uncertain about what actions, Academies in which 54 scientists, if any, they should take. In general, resource managers lack specific economists, and federal resource guidance for incorporating climate change into their management actions managers participated, and and planning efforts. Without such guidance, their ability to address climate conducted 4 case studies. change and effectively manage resources is constrained. While a broad order developed in January 2001 directed BLM, FWS, and NPS to consider and What GAO Recommends analyze potential climate change effects in their management plans and GAO recommends that the activities, the agencies have not yet provided specific direction to managers Secretaries of Agriculture, on how they are to implement the order. A BLM official stated at an April Commerce, and the Interior 2007 hearing that BLM is establishing policy and technical committees to develop guidance incorporating address necessary actions and develop guidance to address climate change agencies’ best practices, which in agency management practices. FWS and NPS officials said that their advises managers on how to agencies have not developed specific guidance but believe that they are address climate change effects on operating in a manner consistent with the 2001 order. While NOAA and FS the resources they manage and have not provided specific guidance to their resource managers, NOAA gather the information needed to officials said that the agency is establishing a working group to determine do so. In commenting on a draft of what actions to take to address climate change effects. FS officials said that this report, the three departments FS planning processes are designed to identify and respond to emerging generally agreed with the recommendation and provided issues such as climate change. technical comments, which GAO has incorporated into the report as Finally, resource managers do not have sufficient site-specific information to appropriate. plan for and manage the effects of climate change on the federal resources they manage. In particular, the managers lack computational models for local projections of expected changes and detailed inventories and www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-863. monitoring systems for an adequate baseline understanding of existing local To view the full product, including the scope species. Without such information, managers are limited to reacting to and methodology, click on the link above. already-observed climate change effects on their units, which makes it For more information, contact John B. difficult to plan for future changes. Stephenson at (202) 512-3841 or [email protected]. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Results in Brief 5 Background 10 Experts Stated That Federal Resources Are Vulnerable to a Wide Range of Observed and Potential Climate Change Effects, and That the Nature and Extent of These Effects Will Vary 16 Resource Managers Identified Several Challenges in Addressing the Observed and Potential Effects of Climate Change on Federal Resources 34 Conclusions 44 Recommendation for Executive Action 45 Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 46 Appendixes Appendix I: List of National Academies Workshop Participants 50 Appendix II: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 52 Appendix III: Climate Change and Federal Lands Workshop Proceedings, November 2 and 3, 2006 59 Background 59 Questions for Workshop Participants 59 Day 1: Breakout Session Questions and Responses 61 Day 1: Afternoon Plenary Session Questions and Responses 99 Day 2: Breakout Session Questions and Responses 105 Day 2: Afternoon Plenary Session 147 Appendix IV: Four Case Study Profiles 152 Coasts and Oceans Ecosystem: The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary 152 Forests Ecosystem: The Chugach National Forest 156 Fresh Waters Ecosystem: Glacier National Park 159 Grasslands and Shrublands Ecosystem: Bureau of Land Management Kingman Field Office, Arizona 164 Appendix V: Comments from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FS) 168 Appendix VI: Comments from the Department of Commerce (NOAA) 171 Appendix VII: Comments from the Department of the Interior (BLM, FWS, and NPS) 174 Appendix VIII: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 179 Page i GAO-07-863 Climate Change Contents Tables Table 1: Shares and Global Warming Potentials of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Sources, 2004 11 Table 2: Key U.S. Ecosystem Types 16 Figures Figure 1: Map of NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries 14 Figure 2: Map of Federal Resources and the Entities Responsible for Their Management 15 Figure 3: Grinnell Glacier as Viewed from Mt. Gould in Glacier National Park, between 1938 and 2005 20 Figure 4: Spruce Trees Killed by the Spruce Bark Beetle in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska 25 Figure 5: Bleached Brain Coral, July 2005 31 Abbreviations BLM Bureau of Land Management CCP Comprehensive Conservation Plan CESU Cooperative Ecosystem Study Unit EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EMS Environmental Management System ESA Endangered Species Act of 1973 FS Forest Service FWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service GHG greenhouse gas IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NEON National Ecological Observatory Network NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NGO nongovernmental organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPS National Park Service USGS U.S. Geological Survey This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States.The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. Page ii GAO-07-863 Climate Change A United States Government Accountability Office Washington, D.C. 20548 August 7, 2007 Leter The Honorable John Kerry United States Senate The Honorable John McCain United States Senate A growing body of evidence shows that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases—primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—in the Earth’s atmosphere have resulted in a warmer global climate system, among other changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a leading source for international climate expertise, noted in April 2007 that “observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.” The IPCC further noted that climate change has, in some areas, led to rising sea levels, declining snow cover, melting glacial and Arctic ice, coral bleaching, and changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, among other things. The stresses caused by climate change could be exacerbated by existing stresses on ecosystems from such sources as pollution, human settlement, land-use change, and invasion by nonnative species. Together, climate change and ecosystem stresses may cause substantial damage to, or the complete loss of, some ecosystems and the extinction of species. Furthermore, scientists project that changes in temperature and precipitation may result in more extreme weather events, such as more frequent and severe droughts,