SWWITCH 25 November SWWITCH Rail Strategy – Final Report Prepared by: ...... Checked by: ........................................................................ Michael Gross Iain Mobbs Senior Consultant Associate Director Approved by: ............................................................. Craig Bell Regional Director SWWITCH Rail Strategy Rev No Comments Checked by Approved Date by 1 Initial draft issued to the client IM 19/8/13 2 Final version including client comments IM CB 10/9/13 3 Final version including further client comments and consolidation of IM CB 25/11/13 the Option Generation and Appraisal Report 3rd Floor, Portwall Place, Portwall Lane, Bristol, BS1 6NB Telephone: 0117 901 7000 Website: http://www.aecom.com Job No 60304852 Reference Date Created 25 November This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited for the sole use of our client (the “Client”) and in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM Limited and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM Limited, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM Limited. c:\users\mobbsi\documents\swwitch\final report 251113.docx AECOM SWWITCH Rail Strategy – Final Report 3 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Requirement for updating the SWWITCH Rail Strategy ........................................................................................ 6 1.2 Study Area ............................................................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Policy Context ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.4 Structure of the Report .......................................................................................................................................... 8 2 Baseline Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Network Characteristics and Services ................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Analysis of Journey Patterns ............................................................................................................................... 15 2.4 Passenger Focus Data ........................................................................................................................................ 19 2.5 Freight ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 2.6 Comparison of Car Journey Times ...................................................................................................................... 21 2.7 Role of Other Travel Modes ................................................................................................................................. 22 2.8 Summary of Main Issues ..................................................................................................................................... 25 3 Base Case – Developing the Rail Strategy .................................................................................................................... 28 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 28 3.2 GWML Electrification and IEP Services to Swansea ........................................................................................... 28 3.3 Local Services between Swansea and Cardiff ..................................................................................................... 28 3.4 Other Possible Service Changes ......................................................................................................................... 29 3.5 Station Improvements .......................................................................................................................................... 29 3.6 Rail Passenger Growth ........................................................................................................................................ 29 3.7 Freight Growth ..................................................................................................................................................... 33 3.8 Implications for Other Modes ............................................................................................................................... 35 3.9 Estimating the Consolidated Growth Rates ......................................................................................................... 35 3.10 Overview of the Base Case Timetable ................................................................................................................. 38 3.11 Summary of Issues .............................................................................................................................................. 39 4 Option Generation and High Level Sifting Tool ............................................................................................................ 41 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 41 4.2 Option Generation ............................................................................................................................................... 41 4.3 Overview of the High Level Sifting Tool ............................................................................................................... 43 4.4 Outputs from the High Level Sifting Tool ............................................................................................................. 51 5 Short Term Interventions ................................................................................................................................................ 53 5.1 Generic Themes .................................................................................................................................................. 53 5.2 Spatially Specific Themes .................................................................................................................................... 56 5.3 Scheme Prioritisation ........................................................................................................................................... 58 6 Medium Term Interventions ........................................................................................................................................... 60 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 60 6.2 London to Swansea ............................................................................................................................................. 60 6.3 Cardiff to Swansea .............................................................................................................................................. 62 6.4 Role of Swansea Interchange .............................................................................................................................. 62 6.5 Swansea to Milford Haven ................................................................................................................................... 63 6.6 Swansea to Pembroke Dock ............................................................................................................................... 64 6.7 Swansea to Fishguard ......................................................................................................................................... 66 6.8 Other Services West of Swansea ........................................................................................................................ 66 6.9 Heart of Wales Line ............................................................................................................................................. 67 6.10 Rolling Stock Requirements ................................................................................................................................ 68 6.11 Swansea District Line .......................................................................................................................................... 69 6.12 Proposed New Stations ....................................................................................................................................... 70 6.13 Further Development of a Complementary Rapid Transit Strategy ..................................................................... 71 7 Long Term Interventions ...............................................................................................................................................