ISSN 2443-8030 (online) Economic Convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia Michal Havlat, David Havrlant, Robert Kuenzel and Allen Monks ECONOMIC BRIEF 034 | MARCH 2018 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Economic and EUROPEAN Financial Affairs ECONOMY European Economy Economic Briefs are written by the staff of the European Commission’s Directorate- General for Economic and Financial Affairs to inform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official views of the European Commission. Authorised for publication by Servaas Deroose, Deputy Director-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 PDF ISBN 978-92-79-77363-1 ISSN 2443-8030 doi:10.2765/988425 KC-BE-18-002-EN-N © European Union, 2018 Non-commercial reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use or reproduction of material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Economic Convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia By Michal Havlat, David Havrlant, Robert Kuenzel and Allen Monks Summary This brief discusses economic convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia vis-à-vis the EU-28 during the past two decades, focusing mainly on developments in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. It addresses three questions. First, did economic convergence take place in both countries? Second, did convergence speed and patterns differ between the two? Third, have growth and convergence paths changed since the global economic and financial crisis of 2009? This brief concludes with a 'yes' to each of the above questions. The Czech Republic and Slovakia witnessed considerable catch-up growth relative to the EU average, particularly in the period between 2003 and 2008. In this pre-crisis period the rate of convergence was much stronger in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic, thereby substantially reducing the relative income gap that existed between Slovakia and its supposedly richer twin. Differences in the average speed of convergence between the two countries since the late 1990s can be largely explained by a simple model of "absolute beta convergence", which suggests that countries with initially lower levels of economic development should grow faster than higher-income countries. In order to further explain the specific economic developments in the two countries, this brief examines various policy-related and structural factors, including their industrial legacies and the attractiveness for FDI, labour market reforms, and EU accession combined with the receipt of EU structural funds. It further argues that Slovakia's euro adoption in 2009 is likely to have boosted its economic advancement, even though it is probably too early for an exact quantification of this supportive effect. Finally, the global crisis appears to have marked the start of a slowing - and temporary stalling - of convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Acknowledgements: The brief benefited from comments by C. Martinez-Mongay, M. Hallet, F. Wöhlbier, W. Paczynski, M. Stierle, F. Barros Castro and from work undertaken by former staff members of DG ECFIN's Czech Desk, notably Milan Lisicky and Renata Hruzova, for a seminar on economic convergence held in Prague in February 2014. Leonardo Perez-Aranda provided excellent research assistance. Contact: Michal Havlat, [email protected]; David Havrlant, [email protected]; Robert Kuenzel, [email protected]; Allen Monks, [email protected]. European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Economies of the Member States II – Czech Republic, Slovakia, United Kingdom. EUROPEAN ECONOMY Economic Brief 034 European Economy Economic Briefs Issue 034 | March 2018 investigating the natural experiment represented by Introduction the split of Czechoslovakia into two states (and economies) with the aim of drawing lessons for This brief discusses the economic convergence of economic policymaking. the Czech Republic and Slovakia vis-à-vis the EU- Economic convergence between countries and 28 following the transition of Czechoslovakia from a regions can be measured by relative planned economy in the early 1990s and the developments in nominal income per capita subsequent dissolution of the country into its two adjusted for relative changes in price levels. This constituent parts in 1993. In particular, this brief brief mainly focuses on developments in GNI per examines the extent and timing of per capita income capita adjusted for changes in the price level using convergence in the two countries since 1998 and list Eurostat's purchasing power standard (PPS). a number of explanatory factors, including their Measuring economic convergence using GNI (as accession to the European Union in 2004 and opposed to GDP) is warranted in case significant Slovakia's entry into the euro area in 2009. parts of national income are generated in the domestic economy but flow out as dividends and This brief is structured as follows. Section 2 presents earnings to non-residents, as is the case in the two the stylised facts of economic convergence in the FDI-intensive economies in question; Box 1 two countries, as well as a primary analysis of GNI provides further explanations on this. The empirical and potential GDP growth over the past two analysis generally starts in 1998 as earlier national decades. A box provides methodological details on account data for the Czech Republic and Slovakia the measurement of convergence. Section 3 are quite volatile and, in the view of the authors, not examines factors that contributed to convergence sufficiently reliable. This likely reflects the since 1998, including Slovakia's lower starting level transition of these economies from planned to of income, the timing and intensity of investment market-based systems as well as issues related to the activity and inflows of foreign direct investment quality of available data. (FDI), labour market reforms, and EU accession and structural funds. Section 4 briefly comments on Figure 1: GNI per capita (in PPS) convergence in the post-2009 period, touching upon the role of fiscal consolidation and of Slovakia's 35,000 euro adoption; section 5 concludes. 30,000 Convergence performance of the Czech Republic and Slovakia 25,000 Understanding the patterns and determinants of 20,000 economic growth has been a central motivation in the field of economics. In the context of European 15,000 integration, which has helped to successively link Member States' economies with one another, the 10,000 degree to which growing interrelationships have benefitted poorer and/or more recent entrants into 5,000 the EU is of particular relevance. Economic 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 convergence has been a long-standing policy Czech Republic Slovakia EU-28 objective underpinning EU economic policy coordination and financial assistance. Moreover, Source: AMECO, own calculations efforts to deepen and complete Europe's Economic and Monetary Union aim at creating more jobs, Per capita income levels rose significantly between 1998 and 2016 in the Czech Republic boost growth and investment, and increase social 2 fairness and macroeconomic stability.1 The degree and Slovakia , ensuring catch-up with the EU to which economic convergence takes place, and average. GNI per capita (adjusted for PPS) more under which conditions, remains a contested issue in than doubled in Slovakia and almost doubled in the both theoretical and applied economic research This Czech Republic over the period in question (Figure brief approaches the convergence question by 1). While in both countries per capita incomes 2 European Economy Economic Briefs Issue 034 | March 2018 broadly traced the trend of the European Union as a Figure 3: Contributions to per capita income whole, Figure 2 shows that Slovak income per capita convergence (1998-2016) rose from 52% of the EU-28 average in 1998 to 76.2% in 2016, an increase of 24.2pps., while Czech pps. of GDP GNI per capita rose by a more modest 10.6pps. from 40 72.0% to 82.6%. In both cases much of the contributing increase occurred in the period before 30 2009. The timing of this convergence pattern, as 20 well as the possible existence of a structural break marked by the economic and financial crisis, will be 10 revisited later on in this brief. 0 Figure 2: GNI per capita (PPS) as % of EU-28 -10 85% 80% -20 CZ SK 75% Relative GNI Relative Population 70% PPS GNI per capita (PPS) 65% Source: AMECO, own calculations 60% 55% Figure 4: Contributions to annual potential GDP 50% growth 45% pps. of potential GDP 6 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Czech Republic Slovakia 2001-08 2009-16 5 Source: AMECO, own calculations 4 Rising aggregate national income drove per 3 capita income convergence in both countries, in spite of relatively fast increases in domestic 2 prices. Figure 3 shows the contribution of the three components of relative GNI per capita to the overall 1 change in these ratios.3 In both countries, more rapid growth in nominal GNI was the main driver of 0 convergence towards the EU-28 average, with the CZ SK CZ SK stronger contribution in Slovakia reflecting a larger Capital Accumulation Total Labour (Hours) TFP Potential Growth GNI increase. Relative population developments also made a positive contribution, with lower population growth in these two countries relative to Source: AMECO, own calculations the EU-28.