GOMAL ZAM COMMAND AREA DEVELOPMENT PROJECT MIDTERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION DECEMBER 9, 2019 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Management Systems International, A Tetra Tech Company. GOMAL ZAM COMMAND AREA DEVELOPMENT PROJECT MIDTERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Contracted under Order No. AID-391-C-15-00004 Performance Management Support Contract DISCLAIMER This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the sole responsibility of the Management Systems International and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. ABSTRACT In 2015, USAID/Pakistan joined the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to implement the Gomal Zam Command Area Development Project. The project sought to improve the agricultural and livestock productivity and incomes of 30,000 farm families by helping them fully realize the benefits of a perennial source of irrigation water. The project is far behind schedule, however, thus deferring much-anticipated benefits. The evaluation focused on producing recommendations to accelerate implementation and identifying lessons learned to improve the design and implementation of future government-to-government projects. To address this purpose, the evaluation team reviewed a rich set of documents, interviewed a wide range of stakeholders and beneficiaries, and drew from secondary sources to triangulate findings. The evaluation concludes that a poorly managed design process failed to produce a design document specific enough to effectively guide implementation. Furthermore, staffing and compensation issues embedded in the design left the project without the skills and experience necessary to effectively manage project activities. Because the project has made little meaningful progress on its foundational activities, it generated few benefits. Nevertheless, the evaluation concludes that completing the project has the potential to sustain benefits achieved so far and enhance them substantially. Recommendations for accelerating implementation focus on bolstering the project’s management capacity, producing detailed work plans, filling staffing gaps, reassessing the suitability of consultants, and managing contracts more tightly. In future government-to-government projects, USAID should take a more hands-on approach to project design and implementation, reserving a role in approving design documents and selecting key personnel and providing short- or long-term technical assistance as necessary. GOMAL ZAM COMMAND AREA DEVELOPMENT PROJECT – MIDTERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The evaluation team greatly appreciates the open and collaborative attitude with which project staff, government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa officials, and USAID personnel approached this evaluation. Your interest in the evaluation outcomes, honest and thoughtful appraisal of the project’s strengths and challenges, accessibility to the evaluation team, and patience made our job interesting and satisfying. We also need to thank the many beneficiaries, stakeholders, and others who consented to interviews. We appreciate your time and valuable insights. The staff of the Project Implementation Unit deserve a special thank you for facilitating the evaluation team’s work in D.I. Khan and the command area. We also wish to recognize USAID, and particularly the Economic Growth and Agriculture Office and the Performance Management Unit, for their invaluable support, guidance, and assistance. Thank you. Douglas Krieger, team lead Jamshed ul-Hasan, subject-matter specialist (government/project management) Muhammad Qasim Jan, subject-matter specialist (agriculture) Samar Erum Nadeem, subject-matter specialist (gender) Muhammad Noman Ali, assignment manager Bawar Khan, field researcher Lubna Nisar, field researcher GOMAL ZAM COMMAND AREA DEVELOPMENT PROJECT – MIDTERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION iv CONTENTS Acronyms .......................................................................................................................... vii Glossary ..............................................................................................................................ix Project Summary .............................................................................................................. x Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 Evaluation Purpose and Questions .................................................................................. 6 Project Background .......................................................................................................... 6 Development Hypothesis .................................................................................................................. 8 Evaluation Methods and Limitations ............................................................................... 8 Data Collection and Analysis ............................................................................................................ 9 Findings and Conclusions................................................................................................ 10 Design Process and Design ............................................................................................................. 10 Implementation .................................................................................................................................. 17 Project Benefits .................................................................................................................................. 25 Sustainability ........................................................................................................................................ 36 Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 38 Recommendations for Immediate Implementation ................................................................... 38 Recommendations for Improving Future G2G Projects .......................................................... 41 Annexes ............................................................................................................................ 42 Annex 1: Statement of Work ......................................................................................................... 42 Annex 2: Assignment Work Plan ................................................................................................... 79 Annex 3: Project Components and Status of Activities ......................................................... 103 Annex 4: Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 106 Annex 5: Data Collection Instruments ....................................................................................... 114 Annex 6: List of Interviews............................................................................................................ 156 Annex 7: Data Analysis Plan .......................................................................................................... 160 Annex 8: Design Milestone Dates ............................................................................................... 161 Annex 9: CADP Budget Reallocation ......................................................................................... 162 Annex 10: Cultivated Area Maps ................................................................................................. 163 Annex 11: Chashma Right Bank Canal Impact Evaluation Data ........................................... 168 Annex 12: Evaluation Team Biographies .................................................................................... 170 Annex 13: Conflict of Interest Declarations ............................................................................. 172 GOMAL ZAM COMMAND AREA DEVELOPMENT PROJECT – MIDTERM PERFORMANCE EVALUATION v List of Tables Table 1: Project Summary................................................................................................................................. x Table 2: Contract Procurement Timelines ................................................................................................. 18 Table 3: Effect of Canal Water on Production Indicators ...................................................................... 28 Table 4: Farmers’ Concerns About Watercourses and Outlets ........................................................... 35 Table 5: Project-Reported Activity Data .................................................................................................. 104 Table 6: Number of Interviews by Module and Type ............................................................................ 156 Table 7: Interview Subjects........................................................................................................................... 157 Table 8: Data Analysis Plan ........................................................................................................................... 160 Table 9: Design Process Milestone Dates ................................................................................................. 161 Table 10: CADP Budget Reallocation (Rs. millions) ..............................................................................