Issue No. 1302 16 February 2018 // USAFCUWS Outreach Journal Issue 1302 // Feature Item “Navigating Dangerous Pathways: A Pragmatic Approach to U.S.-Russian Relations and Strategic Stability”. Written by James N. Miller Jr. and Richard Fontaine, published by the Center for a New American Security; January 30, 2018 https://www.belfercenter.org/node/103186 The ongoing integration of new technologies by U.S. and Russian militaries – particularly cyber, space, long-range strike, missile defenses, autonomous systems, and big data analytics – is creating new and growing strains on strategic stability between these two great powers. The inherent difficulty of managing these strains is exacerbated by the overall deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations. A previous report offered a framework for understanding the strains on strategic stability in this context of rapid technological change and difficult U.S.-Russian relations. This framework described the linked and changing dynamics of three interrelated pathways to crisis or conflict: (1) the future course of U.S.- Russian relations; (2) potential slippery slopes from peacetime to crisis and conflict; and (3) the possibility that conflict could escalate to attacks against each other’s homeland and even nuclear war. This report builds on that framework by offering concrete recommendations for managing each of the three pathways. A key insight that arose from earlier work is that stabilizing U.S.-Russian relations requires actions along each of the three pathways, conducted in parallel. Shaping and managing the overall relationship is fundamentally important. But whatever the course of U.S.-Russian relations in the future, there will remain a possibility (one, we argue, that is growing over time) of sliding into crisis and even armed conflict. Moreover, if a crisis or conflict does occur, there is a possibility (also growing over time) that escalation to strategic attack could occur. Whatever the course of U.S.-Russian relations in the future, there will remain a possibility (one, we argue, that is growing over time) of sliding into crisis and even armed conflict. The previous study examined how new technologies may create new challenges for managing one or more of the three pathways. To take but one example, offensive cyber operations are a critical tool for “gray-zone” efforts such as the Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, which clearly had a major impact on U.S.-Russian relations. In addition, because of their potential for creating disruptive or destructive effects without directly producing casualties and potentially with delayed attribution, cyberattacks on weapons systems and supporting infrastructure are likely to be extremely attractive early moves in any conflict. In addition, if offensive cyber capabilities are themselves somewhat vulnerable, there may be substantial incentives to “go early” and “go big” in cyberspace. To the extent that either side feared that the other could use cyber capabilities to delay or deny its non- nuclear capabilities, incentives to use nuclear weapons early would rise; fears that the other side’s cyber capabilities could degrade or deny a nuclear second strike could create “use-or-lose” incentives that would drive early use of nuclear weapons and seriously increase risks of a nuclear exchange. Indeed, even the discovery of an adversary cyber implant in one side’s nuclear strike systems – and uncertainty about its effects or worries that there may be undiscovered others – could increase use-or-lose pressures. This example is emblematic of dynamics arising from technological advancements in space, long-range strike, missile defenses, autonomous systems, and big data analytics. This report reiterates some of the context regarding each of the three pathways but focuses primarily on concrete recommendations for managing them. The aim is to help shape the ongoing debate regarding U.S.-Russian relations and guide actions affecting U.S. nuclear posture, ballistic missile defenses, cyber deterrence, and space resilience. The recommendations also address the American role in NATO and NATO-Russian relations, both of which are of critical importance to all three pathways. twitter.com/USAF_CUWS | cuws.au.af.mil // 2 // USAFCUWS Outreach Journal Issue 1302 // TABLE OF CONTENTS US NUCLEAR WEAPONS DOE Requests More Money for Nuke Weapons Trump Proposes Bigger Budget for Pentagon, Nuclear Arsenal USAF to Retire B-1, B-2 in Early 2030s as B-21 Comes On-Line New Nuclear Warheads: Legislative Provisions US COUNTER-WMD Top Admiral: US Must Bolster Missile Defense to Counter North Korea Airmen Train for Nuclear, Chemical Contamination; Crescent Moon Exercise Takes Place in North ‘Never Been More Difficult’ to Keep Terror Groups from Getting WMD MDA $9.9 Billion Budget Request Geared to Address North Korean Threat US ARMS CONTROL A Ticking Clock: Rose Gottemoeller, Deputy Secretary General of NATO, Discusses Arms Control US Urges Russia to Honor 1987 Arms Pact, Warns of Collapse Putin Ally Warns of Arms Race as Russia Considers Response to U.S. Nuclear Stance ASIA/PACIFIC Japan's Plutonium Glut Casts a Shadow on Renewed Nuclear Deal Japan and Norway Agree to Jointly Work against North Korea’s Nuclear Program U.S. Intelligence Chief Says North Korea 'Decision Time' Is Near Washington Is Willing to Talk with North Korea, the South’s President Says EUROPE/RUSSIA U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis to Press European Allies on Military Spending Russian Military Test Fires New Upgraded Air Defense Missile — Media Belgium Seeks to Help Overcome Difficulties in Russia’s Relations with EU and NATO Russian Nuclear Weapons Engineers Caught • Minting Blockchange with Supercomputer MIDDLE EAST In U.S., Israel-Syria Border Clash Triggers New War over Iran Nuclear Deal Iran Just Revealed Nuclear Ballistic Missiles That Are Similar to North Korea’s West Used Lizards to Spy on Iran's Nuclear Program – Military Official With Russia's Help, Arab States Speeding up Nuclear Arms Race INDIA/PAKISTAN India-Pakistan, India-China Ties to Worsen, Says Report by US intelligence Chief Pakistan Developing New Types of Nuclear Weapons: US COMMENTARY The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Future of the Indo-Pacific Military Balance How to Keep US Missile Defense on the Right Track Why China Will Go Full Steam Ahead in the Nuclear Arms Race Trump's Nuclear Posture Review and China: No Way Forward? The Discrimination Problem: Why Putting Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons on Submarines Is So Dangerous Nuclear Posturing twitter.com/USAF_CUWS | cuws.au.af.mil // 3 // USAFCUWS Outreach Journal Issue 1302 // US NUCLEAR WEAPONS Albuquerque Journal (Albuquerque, N.M.) DOE Requests More Money for Nuke Weapons By Michael Coleman February 12, 2018 The White House is rolling out President Donald Trump’s FY 2019 budget request today and it would funnel $2 billion more to the agency in charge of nuclear weapons. The Department of Energy released topline budget numbers today and they show that the National Nuclear Security Administration would get $15.1 billion next year, an extra $2.2 billion compared to current year spending. Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories in New Mexico are overseen by the NNSA. The Journal wrote about what the budget and recently released Nuclear Posture Review could mean for New Mexico’s labs Sunday. The budget released today is just a wish list of the administration. The two-year spending deal approved by Congress last week does not necessarily reflect the president’s requests. We’ll have more after the DOE press briefing on the budget at 1 p.m. MT. Here’s the breakdown for NNSA that DOE provided moments ago: $11B for Weapons Activities, $1.8B above FY 2017 Enacted, to maintain the safety, security, and effectiveness of the nuclear stockpile, to continue the nuclear modernization program, and to modernize NNSA’s nuclear security infrastructure. $1.9B for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, $17M below FY 2017 Enacted, to address the entire nuclear threat spectrum by preventing the acquisition of nuclear weapons or weapons-usable materials, countering efforts to acquire such weapons or materials, and responding to nuclear or radiological incidents. The Budget Request also includes $220M to continue the orderly and safe closure of the Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fuel Fabrication Facility and $59M to pursue the proven dilute and dispose technology. $1.8B for Naval Reactors, an increase of $369M from FY 2017 Enacted, to support the current fleet and create the future fleet. https://www.abqjournal.com/1132681/doe-releases-nuke-weapons-budget-request.html Return to top Reuters (New York, N.Y.) Trump Proposes Bigger Budget for Pentagon, Nuclear Arsenal By Mike Stone February 12, 2018 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a military budget that is the largest since 2011 and focused on beefing up the country’s nuclear defenses and countering the growing strength of China and Russia. twitter.com/USAF_CUWS | cuws.au.af.mil // 4 // USAFCUWS Outreach Journal Issue 1302 // The proposal, part of Trump’s budget request for the U.S. government, would provide the Pentagon $617 billion and an additional $69 billion to fund ongoing wars in fiscal year 2019. That is $74 billion more than in the budget for the previous fiscal year. Critics, however, say that the proposed spending increase falls short of what Trump had promised during the 2016 presidential campaign, when he frequently depicted the U.S. military as underfunded. The budget documents specifically highlighted “reversing the erosion of the U.S. military advantage in relation to China and Russia,” which was a focal point of the National Defense Strategy unveiled by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in January. Funds for the maintenance of the U.S. nuclear arsenal also increased. On top of the Pentagon’s $686 billion budget request was an additional $30 billion for non-defense agencies including the Department of Energy, which maintains the country’s nuclear weapons.