7. SYNTHESIS OF THE ANALYSES 7.1 THE NATURAL threatened areas of biodiversity in the Province. The least endangered SYSTEMS areas correspond with protected areas such as national parks, provincial nature reserves, forest areas and mountain catchments. Over this map This section summarises the biodiversity planners at Cape Nature and National Botanical Institute the analyses of the 28 have overlaid preliminary ecological corridors which can work as seed sectors whose attributes transport and animal movement routes. and challenges and, in particular, their spatial impacts across the Province, were described in Section 4, see Figure 7.1. This section also identifies a Relationship Frame- work that to describes the relationships between the various sectors. This framework can be used as a basis for monitoring the various impacts of development proposals or assessing the sustainability of different entities from the household, the firm, municipal sub-areas, or NATURAL Figure 7.2 Eco-system Status and Ecological Corridors even whole local and district municipalities or It can be seen that those parts of the Province whose ecosystems status is the Province itself. critically endangered are found on the coastal plains between the inland chains and the coast. These areas coincide with the Intensive Agricultural 7.1.1 Biodiversity regions of the Province, see Figure 7.3. Figure 7.2 shows the critically endangered vulnerable and least Figure 7.1 A Framework of Interrelated Systems CNdV africa 7-1 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 7.1.2 Agriculture Figure 7.3 shows the extent of intensive and extensive agriculture in the Province. Areas of intensive agriculture are highlighted in bright green. This land is ploughed and therefore is destructive of biodiversity. However, it is very important for the agricultural economy which is an important component of the Western Cape Economy as it is particularly labour intensive, creating 11% of the jobs while contributing 6% to GGP. Thus there is a major trade-off between land required for Intensive Agriculture and areas of critically endangered biodiversity. Extensive agricultural areas comprise the small and large stock farming occurring in the Karoo and the northern part of the West Coast. Figure 7.4 Natural Systems Composite This has two major implications for land-use planning and biodiversity conservation in the Province. First, the critically endangered and endangered remnants that are left are extremely precious and, therefore, there needs to be a careful understanding of the competition between agriculture and biodiversity. In these areas, examples of competition could include the need to create more intensive farming (ploughed) areas. Secondly, there is a major overlap between the extensive farming in the Karoo and areas of least threatened biodiversity. This suggests the potential of veld management to manage veld carrying capacity and Figure 7.3 Extent of Intensive and Extensive Agriculture biodiversity conservation as part of a single complimentary management process based on Figure 7.4. Figure 7.4 overlays the agriculture and biodiversity maps and it can be seen that the critically endangered areas of biodiversity largely disappear when this is done. CNdV africa 7-2 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 7.1.3 Ecosystem Status of Rivers 7.1.4 Streamlining Biodiversity Conservation and Agricultural Planning Initiatives A shocking aspect revealed in the analysis was the extremely poor eco- system status of most of the Province's rivers. 90% of the rivers in the There are a large number of planning initiatives occurring in the Province Western Cape are either critically endangered or endangered, see Figure including the Biodiversity initiatives and Area Wide Planning, see Figure 7.6. 7.5. This situation is complicated for the public, developers and officials to understand and needs to be streamlined and clarified. The Fine Scale Planning Initiatives and Area Wide Plans (e.g. Slanghoek) are examples of the necessary work that must be done to ground truth, delineate and implement provincial and local SDF spatial planning categories and policies in the rural areas outside of the Urban Edges of the villages, towns and cities. Figure 7.5 Eco-system Status of Rivers Some of the poor conditions of rivers is due to urban development (filling of flood plains, excessive extraction, and poor effluent quality) and extensive and intensive farming practices (excessive siltation due to unstable topsoils, river bank ploughing, erosion). This situation suggests that river conservation should be a major area of policy focus. The only rivers in the Figure 7.6 Biodiversity and Agricultural Planning Initiatives (source: Cape Nature) Province that are good quality are those in the Kogelberg and the Southern Cape. While the Kogelberg is protected, much of the Southern 7.1.5 Climate Change Cape is facing considerable urban development pressure. The recent report on climate change and how it may affect the Western Cape revealed that the Western Cape is likely to be warmer and drier than it is at present. The western part of the Province will be the most affected. CNdV africa 7-3 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 The most marked change will be increasing demand and competition for water. In this regard protection of wetlands and estuaries must take an even higher priority if fish resources are to be conserved. Due to the impacts of sea-level rise likely to be significant over the next 30 years development should be restricted near sandy beaches and estuarine river banks. Alien plan eradication should be accelerated together with other measures such as improved fire management in order to ensure the survival of terrestrial eco-systems. Livelihoods dependent on natural resources that may be threatened such as fishing, agriculture and eco-tourism should be carefully monitored. A two-pronged approach may be necessary. Firstly, retraining threatened employees to other occupations should be investigated. Secondly, wherever possible efforts must be made to reduce consumption of scarce natural resources and minimise air and water pollution by ensuring more compact and efficient urban settlements and buildings that require less fuel, electrical energy and water. (Ref: Midgeley et al, A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio- economic Effects of Climate change in the Western Cape, PGWC, June 2005) CNdV africa 7-4 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 Desert and possible Desert expansion. (Acocks 1975) Figure 7.7 Climate CNdV africa 7-5 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 7.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS Socio-economic trends have been considered in two categories: challenges and opportunities. 7.2.1 Challenge - Unemployment Rate by Municipality The Western Cape has the lowest provincial unemployment rate in South Africa, namely 20% (of the economically active population). However, this rate varies considerably by municipality, see Figure 7.8. Figure 7.9 Population Distribution Get original note of which map to insert from SN Figure 7.8 Unemployment Rate by Municipality This pattern shows the highest rates of unemployment as a percentage of each municipality's population in the Central Karoo and outlying areas of the Province. If geographic population distribution is considered, see Figure 7.9, quite a different pattern emerges with Saldanha, Vredenburg, the Boland and the Southern Cape containing the highest concentrations of unemployed people, see Figure 7.10. The City of Cape Town has the most unemployed people (71%) although they may be a similar proportion of the total population when compared to the Central Karoo. Policies and programs aimed at eradicating unemployment should be directed to where most unemployed people are located. Figure 7.10 Unemployment CNdV africa 7-6 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 7.2.2 Challenge -Education Education is a critical issue in terms of getting the Province's human resources to a level where they can begin to compete successfully with other regions and countries and help grow the economy. Figure 7.11 shows areas not well served with education facilities. This is arguably not as critical in areas of low population densities but there are areas in the Cape Winelands, Overberg and southern part of the West Coast where there are high levels of people with no schooling. Figure 7.12 Enrolment Drop-off Rates (source: WCED) 7.2.3 Challenge -Health Figure 7.13 shows a similar pattern of areas that are not well served with health facilities. Some of these are with the City of Cape Town. Figure 7.13 shows the pattern of HIV/AIDS infections. HIV prevalence can also be used as an indicator for other health problems such as tuberculosis. The Western Cape also has high levels of foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). Figure 7.11 Education Most concerning is the high level of school enrolment drop-off rates, see Figure 7.12. There is a drop from about 70 - 80 000 in Grade 8 down to about 40 000 in Matric. There appear to be only about 4000 learners writing higher grade maths. Figure 7.13 Health Services CNdV africa 7-7 PROVINCIAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 7 NOVEMBER 2005 Figure 7.14 HIV/AIDS Infections (source: Dept. Health, Western Cape 2002) Figure 7.15 Crime and Security (source: SAPS) 7.2.4. Challenge -Crime 7.2.5 Challenges -Composite Crime and security have a significant impact on attracting economic growth. Figure 7.15 shows the priority police districts in the Province as When all of the maps depicting socio-economic challenges are overlaid, identified by the South African Police Service. These are police districts see Figure 7.16, the following pattern emerges: The City of Cape Town is facing above average levels of crime. As would be expected, many of an obvious focus particularly with respect to crime and unemployment. It priority police districts are on the Cape Flats and Cape Town Central but is interesting to note the coincidence of several areas of challenge there is also movement out into the Boland and, interestingly, the including crime in areas such as the Klein Karoo.