Final report for the European Railway Agency Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railway communications system) 25 February 2014 David Taylor, Nils Lofmark, Maria McKavanagh Ref: 37760-496v04 . The opinions expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Railway Agency Contents List of abbreviations used in this report 1 1 Executive summary 4 2 Introduction 12 2.1 Document purpose 12 2.2 Study objectives 12 2.3 Scope of the study 13 2.4 Information sources for the study 14 2.5 Structure of the document 16 3 Current status 17 3.1 Introduction 17 3.2 Rail sector in Europe 17 3.3 Rail sector outside Europe 20 3.4 Other critical sectors 21 3.5 Summary of the current status 28 4 Spectrum evolution 30 4.1 Introduction 30 4.4 Future technology and voice calls and their impact on spectrum 31 4.5 Use of current spectrum for broad band communications 31 4.6 Spectrum discussions at the World Radio Conference 2015 33 4.7 Sharing of spectrum 34 4.8 New spectrum for rail communications 34 4.9 Summary of spectrum evolution 35 5 Future trends 36 5.1 Introduction 36 5.2 Trends in the mobile market 36 5.3 Trends in specific sectors 40 5.4 The trend towards software-defined radio 43 5.5 Summary of future trends 44 6 Analysis of possible future scenarios for railways 45 6.1 Introduction 45 6.2 Requirements for railway communications 45 6.3 Hypotheses regarding future railway communications 48 6.4 Key considerations for future railway communications 49 6.5 Options for future railway communications 52 Ref: 37760-496v04 . Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railw ay communications system) 6.6 Implementation examples/scenarios for future railway communications 54 6.7 Comparison of policy options 64 6.8 Conclusions for future scenarios for railways 68 7 Terminal evolution 70 7.1 Introduction 70 7.2 Current situation regarding terminal evolution 70 7.3 Future terminal options 70 7.4 Terminals as a tool for transition 71 7.5 Interoperability of terminals 72 7.6 Portable radios 73 8 Strategy for system replacement 74 8.1 Introduction 74 8.2 Overall strategic options 74 8.3 Timescales 77 9 Summary of findings and recommendations 79 9.1 Introduction 79 9.2 Findings 79 9.3 Recommendations 81 Annex A Interview data and findings Annex B Current status – rail sector Annex C Current status for public safety Annex D LTE deployments in Western, and Central and Eastern Europe Ref: 37760-496v04 . Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railw ay communications system) Copyright © 2014. Analysys Mason Limited has produced the information contained herein for the European Railway Agency (ERA). The ownership, use and disclosure of this information are subject to the Commercial Terms contained in the contract between Analysys Mason Limited and ERA. Analysys Mason Limited Bush House, North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001 [email protected] www.analysysmason.com Registered in England No. 5177472 Ref: 37760-496v04 . Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railw ay communications system) | 1 List of abbreviations used in this report Abbreviation Full term 3/4/5G Third/fourth/fifth generation (of mobile telecoms technology) 3GPP Third Generation Partnership Project ARTC Australian Rail Track Corporation ASCI Advanced Speech Call Items ATO Automatic Train Operation ATP Automatic Train Protection CAGR Compound annual growth rate CBTC Communications-Based Train Control CCS-TSI Control-Command and Signalling Technical Specification for Interoperability CCTV Closed circuit television CDMA Code division multiple access CEPT European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications CHS Cluster hot standby CSFB Circuit-switched fall back EC European Commission ECC European Communications Committee (of CEPT) ECC/DEC/(02)05 CEPT Report on 169.4-169.8125MHz EDGE Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution EDOR European Train Control System Data Only Radio EIRENE European Integrated Railway Radio Enhanced Network ERA European Railway Agency ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management System ETCS European train control system ETSI European Telecommunications Standards Institute EU European Union EUTC European Utilities Telecom Council FAT Factory acceptance test FDD Frequency division duplex GBNR Ground Based Network (Resilient) GCSE-LTE Group Call System Enabler – LTE GDP Gross domestic product GIS Geographic information system GPRS General Packet Radio Service GPS Global Positioning System GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GSM-R Global System for Mobile Communications, adapted for Railway HSPA High Speed Packet Access HS Rail High Speed Rail Ref: 37760-496v04 Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railw ay communications system) | 2 Abbreviation Full term IM Infrastructure manager IMT International Mobile Telecommunications IP Internet Protocol IPR Intellectual property rights ISI Inter System Interface ITU International Telecommunications Union ITU-R International Telecommunications Union Radiocommunication Sector LTE Long Term Evolution M2M Machine to machine MCPTToLTE Mission Critical PTT over LTE METIS Mobile and wireless communications Enablers for the 2020 Information Society MNO Mobile network operator MORANE Mobile Radio For Railways Networks In Europe MTBF Mean time between failure MUAC Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre MVNO Mobile virtual network operator NextG Next Generation NSW New South Wales OFDMA Orthogonal frequency-division multiple access OTT Over-the-top PA Public address PAS Publicly Available Specification PFI Private finance initiative PLC Power-line communications PMR Private mobile radio PPDR Public protection and disaster relief PPP Public-private partnership PTT Push to talk RAN Radio access network REC Railway Emergency Call RF Radio frequency RTPI Real-time passenger information RU Railway undertaking (same as TOC) SAT System acceptance test SDR Software-defined radio SIM (card) Subscriber identity module SLA Service level agreement SMS Short message service TC Technical Committee (of ETSI) TCCA TETRA + Critical Communications Association TCCE TETRA and Critical Communications Evolution TDD Time division duplex Ref: 37760-496v04 Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railw ay communications system) | 3 Abbreviation Full term TEDS TETRA Enhanced Data Service Telstra Australian telecoms operator TEN-T Trans-European Transport Networks TETRA Terrestrial Trunked Radio TETRAPOL An alternative digital radio technology for public safety TOC Train operating company UHF-FM Ultra High Frequency – Frequency Modulation UIC International Union of Railways UMTS Universal Mobile Telephone Service (a 3G service) VBS Voice Broadcast Service VGCS Voice Group Call Service VHF Very high frequency VoIP Voice over Internet Protocol W-CDMA Wideband code division multiple access (a 3G technology) WRC World Radio Conference Ref: 37760-496v04 Survey on operational communications (study for the evolution of the railw ay communications system) | 4 1 Executive summary Introduction This report captures the findings of a study into operational communications for railways carried out by Analysys Mason for the European Railway Agency (ERA) over the period August–December 2013. ERA’s overall objective for the study was to identify potential strategies for the evolution of GSM-R over time to a future concept of communications for railways. This required: an investigation of the current situation and future trends for mobile communications (for railways and for other sectors facing similar challenges) the development of potential scenarios for future evolution and an assessment of these to determine the merits of each. The study is a part of a larger programme of activities for future communications systems for railways being carried out by ERA. A separate operational requirements capture exercise is currently underway and is due to report in the second quarter of 2014. Through subsequent stages of analysis and stakeholder engagement, ERA intends to establish a roadmap for communications evolution by 2015, with new solutions defined by 2018, and available to be ready for deployment to start the transition from approximately 2022. As a consequence, this report identifies issues and potential strategies for further study, rather than drawing conclusions as to the preferred evolutionary path. It does, however, identify several recommendations for consideration. Analysys Mason carried out desk-based research and held interviews with stakeholders in rail and other sectors, before identifying potential options for the future and assessing these. In total, 23 interviews were held, and the results were used to understand the current situation and future trends, as well as stakeholder expectations of the future communications environment. Organisations represented included: railway infrastructure managers (IMs) train operating companies (TOCs) also known as railway undertakings (RUs) railway equipment suppliers railway trade associations regulators and government departments public-safety organisations others (including aviation, space agencies and utilities). Following the interviews, a set of scenarios or potential paths for evolution were identified, and evaluated against the findings of the research and interview phase. Ref: 37760-496v04 Survey on operational communications (study for