The Evolution of the US Ballistic Missile Defence Debate 1989-2010 Institutional Rivalry, Party Politics, and the Progression Towards Political and Strategic Acceptance By Andrew James Futter A thesis submitted to The University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Political Science and International Studies, College of Social Sciences, The University of Birmingham, September 2011 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. Abstract This thesis explains the complex evolution of US ballistic missile defence (BMD) policy between 1989 and 2010, and moves beyond the political rhetoric and intellectual obfuscation that surrounds the policy in much of the literature. By developing an explanatory framework to rigorously and systematically analyse the impact of different dynamics on policy, it explains the rhythms of day-to- day policy in particular context; explains the medium-term shifts in the domestic political space within which the day-to-day policy debate occurred, and explains the long-term move towards acceptance and the gradual normalisation of BMD in American security policy. The primary argument of the thesis is that the particular configuration of domestic political institutions and party political pressures at any given time has been far more important in shaping BMD policy during each presidential administration since the end of the Cold War than has previously been acknowledged. Secondly, it argues that developments in the international system and technology have gradually altered the context within which this domestic political debate has occurred. Finally, it shows that domestic political influences, and the gradual shift in the contours of the domestic debate are the key reasons why BMD has gone from being one of the most divisive, zero- sum political issues in American national security thinking, to something that has largely become normalised, with debate now only occurring at the margins. This thesis is dedicated to my late father, John Futter. Acknowledgements I have incurred numerous debts whilst writing this thesis. It is perhaps most appropriate to begin by acknowledging the Economic and Social Research Council for their generous financial assistance, without which I would have been unable to undertake the project. Their research awards offer incredible opportunities to budding scholars, and I am extremely grateful to have been a recipient of such an award. I would also like to express my appreciation of the patience and dedication shown by my supervisors, Dr David Dunn and Dr Adam Quinn. David has been central to this research from the very beginning, and was one of the main reasons that I decided to do my PhD at Birmingham. Over the many years that I have known him, he has been both a great mentor and a constant source of inspiration. It is primarily through my conversations with David that I developed my interest in ballistic missile defence and nuclear weapons, and through which this thesis had its genesis. Although Adam joined the project at a later stage, his enthusiasm and energy have been fundamental to the finished product, and he has provided a constant source of reassurance. I am indebted to his determination to steer the thesis in the right direction, and to the time he provided to discuss the work. Above all, I am indebted to their patience and fortitude – which I have often tested – and especially to their clever ability to finally make me accept that I had to have some theory in the thesis! More broadly, I would also like to thank Dr David Norman for his friendship, determination to indoctrinate me with political theory, and propensity to end our discussions in the pub, Dr Edward Newman, who acted as second supervisor during the early years of the study and who has been a constant source of support, and Dr Andre Broome for his time, advice and help during my studies. Outside of Birmingham, I would like to thank Professor Matthew Watson for his help in preparing both my original ESRC 1+3 PhD and ESRC PostDoc application, and Dr Trevor McCrisken for introducing me to many contacts in the academic and policy world. During the summer of 2010 I was a visiting scholar at the Council for a Livable World in Washington DC. This experience turned out to be extraordinarily valuable, both from a personal and a professional point of view. The Executive Director of the think tank, John Issacs, showed fantastic enthusiasm for my visit, and his encyclopaedic knowledge of the missile defence issue combined with his enormous range of contacts in the Washington policy world proved a huge source of inspiration. John, along with all the staff at the Council were integral in making my stay in Washington so memorable and productive, and I hope to be able to repay the substantial debt I owe my American colleagues through our continuing friendship in the future. Special thanks must also go to all those policymakers, officials and commentators, who so generously agreed to give up their time and be interviewed during this trip. It is important to also acknowledge the support of my friends. Although I have found writing the PhD enormously rewarding, it is inevitably a rather draining process. Consequently, it has been extremely helpful to be able to undertake the experience with such a lively and interesting group of colleagues in the Department. In particular, Laurence Cooley, Anthony Hopkins, Mark McClelland, Amin Samman and Ben Zala deserve a special mention. I must also thank Dr Oz Hassan – formerly of POLSIS – for his friendship, hilarious dress sense, and unstinting support as my academic sounding board throughout this period. In addition to this, the distractions provided by numerous friends who are not involved in academia has been invaluable in helping me to keep going through what has occasionally been a very testing a difficult period. In this regard, I must also thank Dave Terrace – my long-suffering flat mate and comedy sparing-partner – for his understanding and support over the last few years. Finally, I would like to express my gratitude for the incredible support provided by my family over the course of this project. My greatest thanks must go to my mum, Alison, without whose constant support this thesis would perhaps have never begun, let alone been finished, and to my brother Jack, without whom my car would surely have spent even more time off the road getting fixed! Finally, I owe a huge debt of gratitude to my late father John, who was responsible for developing my interest in reading, current affairs and history, and who helped shape my inquisitive mind. Although he was not here to see the culmination of this process, it is to him that I owe the greatest gratitude, and it is for this reason that I have dedicated the thesis to him. Andrew Futter Birmingham, 2011 1 Contents Glossary 2 Cast of Characters 4 Introduction 6 1. Conceptual Framework 15 2. The Missile Defence Pragmatist – George H. W. Bush (1989-1993) 31 3. Bill Clinton and the End of the Star Wars Era (1993-1997) 73 4. Party Politics and Republican Pressure for Deployment (1997-2001) 112 5. George W. Bush, ABM Treaty Abrogation and Deployment (2001-2005) 148 6. Expanding and Integrating the US Missile Defence Programme (2005-2009) 186 7. The Reluctant Convert – Barack Obama (2009-2010) 215 Conclusion 243 Bibliography 256 1 Glossary Glossary Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union, limiting the deployment of national missile defences (1972 – 2002). Aegis BMD Sea-based missile defence system. Accidental Launch Protection System Missile defence plan proposed by Senator Sam (ALPS) Nunn in 1988. Ballistic Missile Defense Organisation Agency responsible for the US BMD (BMDO) programme (1993 - 2002). Brilliant Pebbles Space-based component of the GPALS system. Exoatmospheric Reentry-vehicle Interception The ground-based component of the SDI and System (ERIS) GPALS system. Global Protection Against Limited Strikes BMD architecture unveiled by George H. W. (GPALS) Bush in January 1991. Ground-based Interceptor (GBI) missile The successor to the ERIS missile, designed to intercept long-range missiles in space. Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) System to shoot down ICBM’s while travelling through space. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) A missile capable of travelling a distance of 3,500m or greater, which can be armed with nuclear warheads. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International organisation for the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Agency responsible for the US missile defence programme (2002 -). National/ Strategic Missile Defense (NMD) A missile defence system designed to protect the US homeland. 2 Glossary New START Treaty Treaty between the United States and Russia (February 2011 -). Patriot BMD Battlefield BMD system for use against short- range missiles. Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) Missile defence plan for Europe announced by Barack Obama in 2009. Phase I Strategic Defense System (SDS) BMD deployment plan outlined by Ronald Reagan in 1987. Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) Interceptor missile used by the Aegis BMD for short-intermediate range interception. Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I (START I) Treaty between the United States and Russia, (1991 - 2009). Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II) Treaty between the United States and Russia (2000 - 2002).