This is Havering 2018 A Demographic and Some Key Facts and Socio-economic profile Figures Version 3.4 By London Borough of Havering (March 2018) Public Health Service HAVERING J S N A Background This is Havering… o …is a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) product that provides a snapshot of the demographic and socio-economic profile of Havering o …is intended to be the “one version of the truth” in relation to the demographic and socio-economic profile of Havering Produced by Public Health Intelligence Approach o A snapshot – concise and limited document size o Readable and less technical o Good visualisation of data, where appropriate o Updatable with new data, with less difficulty (quarterly updates currently agreed)1 o Useful to commissioners and other stakeholders See the main document (“This is Havering: a demographic and socioeconomic profile”) at https://www.haveringdata.net/joint-strategic- needs-assessment/ Note: This PowerPoint version does not contain all the information in the main document 1 The next update is due in March 2017 Produced by Public Health Intelligence Contents GEOGRAPHIC POPULATION HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC PROFILE PROFILE PROFILE PROFILE - Geographical - Size and structure - Household size - Income location - Population change - Mosaic groups - Car ownership - Havering as a - Ward level change - Housing tenure - Child poverty place - Births and migration - Housing conditions - Employment - Deprivation - Projected change - Homelessness and - Life expectancy - Short term migrants unemployment - Ethnicity - Traveller population - Disabilities - Social isolation Produced by Public Health Intelligence GEOGRAPHIC POPULATION HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC PROFILE PROFILE PROFILE PROFILE - Geographical - Size and structure - Household size - Income location - Population change - Mosaic groups - Car ownership - Havering as a - Ward level change - Housing tenure - Child poverty place - Births and migration - Housing conditions - Employment - Deprivation - Projected change - Homelessness and - Life expectancy - Short term migrants unemployment - Ethnicity - Traveller population - Disabilities - Social isolation Produced by Public Health Intelligence Geographic – Summary o The London Borough of Havering is the 3rd largest borough in London (43 miles2) and has 18 electoral wards. o It is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the area dedicated to open green space, particularly to the east of the borough. o Principal town (Romford) is densely populated and is an area of major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment. o The southern part of Havering is within the London Riverside section of the Thames Gateway redevelopment area and will be an area of increasing development and population change. o A relatively affluent borough but pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Geographic – Location Havering is located on the northeast boundary of Greater London 18 Electoral Wards 3rd largest borough in Greater London (43 miles2) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Geographic - Green Spaces Havering is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the borough dedicated to open green space. Dataset: Local Land and Property Gazetteer Data Source: National Land and Property Gazetteer Produced by Public Health Intelligence Geographic – Population Density The principal town (Romford) is densely populated and is an area of major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment. The southern part of Havering is a part of a section of the Thames Gateway redevelopment area. Dataset: Mid-year Population Estimates 2016 and UK Standard Area of Measurements Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Geography – Deprivation There are pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch) of the borough. Most Deprived More Deprived Deprived Less Deprived Least Deprived Deprivation Deprivation quintile quintile score of score of Havering Havering LSOAs* LSOAs* relative to relative to Havering England *LSOA – Lower Super Output Area Dataset: Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2015 Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government Produced by Public Health Intelligence GEOGRAPHIC POPULATION HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC PROFILE PROFILE PROFILE PROFILE - Geographical - Size and structure - Household size - Income location - Population change - Mosaic groups - Car ownership - Havering as a - Ward level change - Housing tenure - Child poverty place - Births and migration - Housing conditions - Employment - Deprivation - Projected change - Homelessness and - Life expectancy - Short term migrants unemployment - Ethnicity - Traveller population - Disabilities - Social isolation Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Summary (I) o The estimated population of Havering is 252,783 o It has the oldest population in London (median age is approximately 40 years) o Havering experienced a net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 to 2002, the population of Havering has increased year on year from 2002, with a 12.3% increase from 2002 to 2016 o There is increase in general fertility rate: 58 births (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) in 2004 to 70 in 2016 – an additional 12 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 o Havering experienced largest net inflow of children across all London boroughs (4,580 children) in a 6-year period (2011-2016) o Largest increases in population will occur in children (0-17 years) and older people age groups (65 years and above) up to 2033 Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Summary (II) o Life expectancy at birth is 80.1 years for males and 84.2 years for females. o Life expectancy at 65 years is 19.0 years for males and 21.7 years for females o On 2011 census day, 83% of residents were recorded as White British - higher than both London and England o About 90% of the borough population were born in the United Kingdom o An increase in the Black African population is projected from 4.0% in 2016 to 5.2% of the Havering population in 2031 o 19% of working age people in Havering disclosed that they have a disability or long term illness Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Age Structure 90+ 85-89 Population of Havering 80-84 75-79 is 252,783 70-74 65-69 Males Females 60-64 Havering has the 55-59 50-54 oldest population in 45-49 Age Group Group Age 40-44 London with a median 35-39 30-34 age of 25-29 20-24 40 years old 15-19 10-14 Age structure is 5-9 0-4 similar to England but 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Percentage of total population older than London. Havering Females Havering Males London Males London Females England Males England Females Dataset: Mid-year Population Estimates 2015 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population - Trend Net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 (240,200) to 2002 (225,100) but the population of Havering has increased year on year from 2002, with a 12.3% increase from 2002 to 2016 255,000 250,000 245,000 252,800 240,000 235,000 230,000 239,700 237,600 225,000 220,000 229,800 229,100 Population Population size 226,000 215,000 225,100 210,000 205,000 Note: Axis 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1994 1996 1997 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 1990 1992 1995 1998 2000 2003 2006 2008 2011 2016 does not start 1987 at origin Mid-year Dataset: Mid-year population estimates 1983-2016 (nearest hundreds) Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population Births Deaths – Changes Internal Migration Inflow Internal Migration Outflow International Migration Inflow International Migration Outflow (2016) Other 90+ 85-89 Children aged 0-4 80-84 75-79 70-74 years are the largest 65-69 60-64 55-59 contributors to 50-54 45-49 40-44 population Agegroups 35-39 30-34 change, largely due 25-29 20-24 to births. 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 A net decrease in -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 adults aged 75+ Outflow Inflow Population Change largely due to deaths. Dataset: Mid-year population estimates 2016 Analysis Tool Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Change (Births) Increase in general fertility rate (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) from 58 births in 2004 to 70 in 2016 - an additional 12 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 Bexley Havering Outer London England London Linear trend (Havering) 80 44 - 70 70 66 67 60 64 62 62 62 62 58 58 59 50 56 54 40 30 20 10 Number of live births per 1000 women aged 15 aged 1000women perbirthslive of Number 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Dataset: Live Births, General Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates, 2004-2016 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Havering 4,536 Bexley 2,952 Population Bromley 2,428 Sutton 1,917 Barking and Dagenham -23 – Change Enfield -90 City of London -156 Kingston upon Thames -470 Hillingdon -659 (Inflow) Harrow -949 Redbridge -1,448 Richmond upon Thames -1,637 Croydon -1,733 Barnet -2,659 Between 2011 and 2016, Merton -5,042 Kensington and Chelsea -5,599 4,580 children settled in Hounslow -5,691 Greenwich -5,907 Camden -6,154 Havering from another Islington -6,215 Westminster -7,281 London borough - the Hammersmith and Fulham -7,322 Hackney -7,530 Tower Hamlets -7,798 largest net inflow of Lewisham -7,821 Ealing -8,669