University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository Master's Theses and Capstones Student Scholarship Winter 2011 Consequences of a separatist platform? The rise and fall of the Bloc Quebecois Zachary Azem University of New Hampshire, Durham Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/thesis Recommended Citation Azem, Zachary, "Consequences of a separatist platform? The rise and fall of the Bloc Quebecois" (2011). Master's Theses and Capstones. 156. https://scholars.unh.edu/thesis/156 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses and Capstones by an authorized administrator of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CONSEQUENCES OF A SEPARATIST PLATFORM? THE RISE AND FALL OF THE BLOC QUEBECOIS BY ZACHARY AZEM BA, University of New Hampshire, 2010 THESIS Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Political Science December, 2011 UMI Number: 1507809 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMT Dissertation Publishing UMI 1507809 Copyright 2012 by ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ©2011 Zachary Azem This thesis has been examined and approved. Thesis Director, Susan Sigge rofessor of Political Science AndrevvSmith, Associate Professor of Political Science AlynraMLyon/Associate-Pfpfessor of Political Science r^/Wa /^ 2&// Date TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES & FIGURES V ABSTRACT VI CHAPTER PAGE I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 7 Introduction 7 Origins of Quebec Alienation 8 Development of Early Canadian Party Systems 9 First Impact of the Quebec Voting Block 11 Emergence of Separatism in Quebec 12 Decline of the Liberals in Quebec 15 Emergence of the Bloc Quebecois 17 Political Survival After the Failed Referendum 20 Platform and Demographics of Bloc Voters 23 The Quebec Nation 26 Death of the BQ? 27 Conclusion 30 III. METHODS AND PROCEDURES 33 IV. RESULTS 40 Hypothesis 1: NDP Surge 40 Hypothesis 2: Modified Contact Hypothesis 44 Hypothesis 3: Campaigns 50 Hypothesis 4: Separatism 61 Hypothesis 5: SMDP 65 V. CONCLUSION 72 REFERENCES 79 APPENDIX A NDP ORANGE CRUSH 84 APPENDIX B CONTACT HYPOTHESIS 2004-2011 87 APPENDIX C PROTEST PARTIES 2004-2011 90 APPENDIX D SUPPORT FLUCTUATIONS IN RIDINGS 93 APPENDIX E OPEN LETTER OF FORMER BQ MEMBERS 100 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Bloc Quebecois Election Results in Quebec 2 Table2: The"McGill Five" 3 Table 3: Elected Bloc Quebecois MPs in 2011 5 Table 4: Liberal Dominance and Downfall in Quebec 16 Figure 1: Spectrum of Canadian Political Ideology 26 Table 5: Incumbent Bloc MPs Who Lost in 2011 29 Table 6: NDP Percentage of Vote in 2006-2011 41 Table 7: NDP Seat Changes 2008-2011 42 Table 8: Changes in Quebec Representation 43 Table 9: Contact Hypothesis: Bloc Quebecois 45 Table 10: Contact Hypothesis: Protest Parties 46 Table 11: Total and Quebec Seat Changes in Watershed Elections 48 Table 12: Electoral Support Trends from 2008 to 2011 49 Table 13: Longest Tenure For Party Leaders 51 Table 14: EKOS Seat Projections 53 Figure 2: NANOS Leadership Data 55 Table 15: Polling in Quebec Prior to 2011 Election 57 Table 16: Parti Quebecois/Bloc Quebecois Election Performance.. 58 Table 17: Quebec Second Choice Parties in 2011 59 Table 18: Quebeckers Views on Distinctness 62 Table 19: Proportional Representation 68 v ABSTRACT CONSEQUENCES OF A SEPARATIST PLATFORM? THE RISE AND FALL OF THE BLOC QUEBECOIS By Zachary Azem University of New Hampshire, December, 2011 This thesis analyzes the contributing factors to the Bloc Quebecois' overwhelming loss in the 2011 Canadian Federal Election. Using both qualitative evidence and statistical analysis, it will investigate the extent in which five potential causes affected this outcome: a shift in support of the New Democratic Party, the distribution of Francophone protest party votes, campaign strategies of the New Democratic Party and Bloc Quebecois, changing views on separatism, and the single member district plurality system. VI CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION On May 2 2011, the Canadian people sent a message that realigned the political landscape in the federal House of Commons.1 The Conservative Party defied all polls and finally secured a majority government in Parliament. The once-dominant Liberal Party, which forced the 2011 election, not only suffered its greatest loss in its history but also lost its leader Michael Ignatieff who could not win his own riding.2 Additionally, the Green Party finally broke through with leader Elizabeth May winning a seat in the House of Commons. Truly dramatic changes occurred with both the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the leftist New Democratic Party in the province of Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois (often referred to as the Bloc or BQ) became the Official Opposition in its inaugural election in 1993 and had maintained a majority of seats in Quebec ever since. Yet, this time the New Democratic Party (often referred to as the NDP) won 59 seats in the province after only possessing one in 2008.3 Meanwhile the Bloc shockingly dropped from 49 seats in 2008 to only four seats in 2011, a prediction not even the most daring 1 The terms "Parliament" and "House of Commons" are interchangeably in this paper. 2 Riding is the term used in Canada for a Parliamentary District. 3 NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair first won the riding of Outremont in a special election in 2007. He then became the first NDP member to win in a general election in Quebec with his victory in 2008. 1 pundit made. Therefore my research question is: Why did the Bloc Quebecois suffer such heavy losses in the 2011 Canadian Federal Election? Table 1: Bloc Quebecois Election Results in Quebec Election % of Vote Bloc Quebecois Seats 1993 49.3% 54 1997 37.9% 44 2000 39.9% 38 2004 48.9% 54 2006 42.1% 51 2008 38.1%. 49 2011 23.4% 4 Note: As The Bloc Quebecois is a separatist party, it only runs candidates in the province of Quebec. Therefore the percentage of the vote and seat total is only within the province. All electoral data used is from Elections Canada. One of the best examples illustrating the scope of the NDPs "Orange Crush" is the Members of Parliament (MPs) referred to as the "McGill Five."4 The four undergraduate students and one doctoral student at McGill University were on the ballot as NDP candidates in largely symbolic fashion. They were running in strong Bloc Quebecois districts and appeared to have little chance of victory. Three of them (Borg, Freeman and Liu) were not even native Quebecers. Charmaine Borg planned to spend her fall in Mexico and did not even attempt to monitor the vote count in her riding.5 The chances of victory appeared so slim that multiple candidates admitted that they never visited nor campaigned in their riding.6 They instead spent their time helping Quebec's one New Democratic Party MP, Thomas Mulcair, win re-election. 4 Scott, M. (2011, May 4). "McGill 5 Head Off to House of Commons." Montreal Gazette. 5 Porter, C. (2011, May 14). "Dose of Reality For Political Junkies..." Toronto Star. 6 Scott, M. (2011, May 4). "McGill 5 Head Off to House of Commons." Montreal Gazette. 2 Table 2: The "McGill Five MP Age Riding Region Laurin Liu 20 Riviere-des-Mille-lles Laurentides Charmaine Borg 21 Terrebonne-Blainville Laurentides Mylene Freeman 22 Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel Laurentides Matthew Dube 23 Chambly-Borduas Monteregie Jamie Nicholls 40 Vaudreuil-Soulanges Monteregie MP Vote Margin BQ Inc. Prev Margin Laurin Liu 49.2% 20.7% 1-Time 26.2% Charmaine Borg 49.3% 18.5% 4-Time 35.9% Mylene Freeman 44.3% 15.3% 4-Time 22.6% Matthew Dube 42.7% 15.1% 3-Time 35.2% Jamie Nicholls 43.6% 17.9% 3-Time 12.6% Note: The column "Prev Margin" represents the average victory margin of the defeated BQ incumbent in their previous elections. All electoral data used in from Elections Canada. Despite the pollsters predicting strong NDP gains in Quebec, no reason existed to believe that these ridings would fall victim to the Orange Crush. Four of the ridings were represented by the Bloc Quebecois since 1993 (Vaudreuil- Soulanges being the exception) and four of the ridings featured incumbent MPs who were elected at least 3 times previously (Riviere-des-Mille-lles being the exception). Furthermore, each incumbent Bloc MP in these ridings enjoyed double-digit margins of victory in previous elections. It is within this context that we witnessed the wave in which NDP candidates rode into Ottawa. The results were stunning as all five students won with over 40% of the vote with all margins of over 15%. While the McGill Five provides an example of the overwhelming impact that the New Democratic Party had on the Bloc Quebecois, no similarities seem apparent among the four surviving Bloc MPs. Strangely enough, the sole freshman Bloc MP, Jean-Francois Fortin, was the only candidate to win by a 3 double digit margin. Meanwhile, Louis Plamondon, the last active MP to cross the floor and form the Bloc Quebecois in 1991, barely survived with a 2.7% margin and 38.3% of the vote.