Modeling Demand of Bike Share System Using Built Environment Attributes in the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina By Ricardo Sanchez Lang B.S in Economics Universidad Centroamericana, 2009 Managua, Nicaragua Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2018 0 2018 Ricardo Sanchez Lang. All Rights Reserved The author hereby grants to MIT the permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly pa er and electronic copies of the thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now own r hereafter created. Signature redacted Author Department of Urban Studies and Planning May 24, 2018 Certified by Signature redacted, V '7 0 P.?Christopher Zegras Department of Urban Studies and Planning / Thesis Supervisor Accepted by_ Signature redacted Professor of the Practice, Ceasar McDowell Chair, MCP Committee MASSACHUSETS I NSITUTE Department of Urban Studies and Planning OF TECHNOLOGY JUN 18 2018 LIBRARIES ARCHIVES 2 Modeling Demand of Bike Share System Using Built Environment Attributes in the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina by Ricardo Sainchez Lang Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning on May 24th , 2018 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning Abstract Increasing the share of trips done by bike has become an objective of cities worldwide. At the individual level, biking is associated with better physical and mental health. At the city level, biking contributes to alleviate traffic congestion, reduce commuting times and improve air quality. This research is an initial attempt to measure the relationship between demand of Buenos Aires' bikeshare system and sociodemographic, built environment and transportation attributes using a linear regression model. Departure and arrival counts are used as dependent variables and are aggregated by station over the period of one year. In addition, catchment areas of different sizes were constructed around bike share stations to estimate the relationships between bike-sharing demand and availability of these attributes around stations. Results suggest a positive relationship between population, buses, availability of bike lanes within the buffers, universities and station capacity. This client-based project seeks to shed light on the subject of bike sharing as a mode of transportation in the context of a Latin American country. Thesis Supervisor: P. Christopher Zegras Title: Associate Professor of Transportation and Urban Planning 3 Acknowledgements While writing this thesis, a revolution was taking place in my country, Nicaragua, with university students leading a social revolt that embodies the desire of my people for a free, democratic, and just country. As a Nicaraguan and as a MIT student, I share and embrace their cause, which is fundamental for the advancement of our country. This thesis is especially dedicated to the Nicaraguan college students who, in the revolution of April 2018, lost their lives fighting for the Nicaragua that we dream. I want to start by thanking Chris for his support and guidance throughout the thesis process and throughout these last two years. Thank you for welcoming me in your research team, which has greatly expanded my knowledge and curiosity about urban transportation planning and thank you for advising me during this thesis process. I also want to express my gratitude to the Government of the City of Buenos Aires for the opportunity to intern at the city's Department of Transportation and for trusting me the exciting task of generating knowledge about the City's bike share system, the Ecobici. In particular, I would like to thank Paula Bisiau, Andres Meyer, Federico Varone and Mariela Vera for providing me with data and guidance throughout this process. I like to thank my classmates and other MIT friends and professors for sharing their knowledge and making these last two years unforgettable. To He, Rounaq, Eytan and Isabel for patiently sharing with me the technicalities of transport planning. I will not forget our long and fruitful discussions. To Professor Sarah Williams for introducing me to the fascinating world of spatial analysis. To Daniel and Madeline at the GIS Lab for teaching me life-long skills and to my GIS- savvy classmates Laura, Kadeem and my dear friend Toho for answering my questions. To Daniel and Cristian, for your friendship and for sharing your knowledge and passion for urban transportation in Latin America. To Apaar, I am happy to have shared my time with you at MIT. Finally, I want to thank my mom and my godmother, for the unconditional love and support during all these years and for being a source of moral and intellectual inspiration. To my grandparents, for being an example of integrity, rectitude and humility. Gracias a la vida que me ha dado tanto - Violeta Parra 4 Table of Contents A b stra ct..................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgem ents ................................................................................................................... 4 1. Introduction...................................................................................................................8 2. Background ................................................................................................................... 9 2.2. General Inform ation about Buenos Aires...................................................................... 9 2.3. The Biking Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 11 3. Literature Review, M ethods and Data ..................................................................... 18 3.1 M odeling Bike Sharing Demand .................................................................................. 18 3 .2 M eth o d s .......................................................................................................................... 2 0 3 .3 D ata ................................................................................................................................ 2 2 4. M odeling Framework, Regression Results and Discussion .................................... 44 4.1 Linear Regression (OLS) .............................................................................................. 44 4.2 Transform ations .............................................................................................................. 44 4.3 Spatial Autocorrelation ............................................................................................... 46 4.4 Regression findings and discussion ............................................................................. 48 5. Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 52 6. References.................................................................................................................... 53 A p p en d ix ................................................................................................................................. 5 5 5 List of Figures Figure 1: G reater Buenos A ires Area ...................................................................................... 9 Figure 2: City of Buenos Aires' Modal Split.......................................................................... 10 Figure 3: People U sing Bike Lane N etw ork .............................................................................. 11 Figure 4: Buenos Aires' Biking Infrastructure........................................................................ 13 Figure 5: No. of Kilometers of Bike Lanes Constructed from 2010-2017............................... 14 Figure 6: Buenos Aires Biking Infrastructure and Population................................................. 16 Figure 7: Buenos Aires Biking Infrastructure and Jobs.......................................................... 17 Figure 8: Q ueen and Rook Criterion ...................................................................................... 21 Figure 9: Departure Counts by Station in 2017...................................................................... 24 Figure 10: Arrival Counts by Station in 2018....................................................................... 25 Figure 11: Distribution of Departure Counts by Time of Day (2017)..................................... 27 Figure 12: Distribution of Arrival Counts by Time of Day (2017)......................................... 27 Figure 13: Distribution of Departure Counts by Month (2017)............................................... 28 Figure 14: Distribution of Arrival Counts by Month (2017)................................................... 28 Figure 15: Frequency Distribution of Travel Times............................................................... 29 Figure 16: Distribution of the Original and Transformed Dependent Variable........................ 30 Figure 17: Distribution of the Original and Transformed Dependent Variable........................ 31 Figure 18: N etw ork-based polygon ........................................................................................ 32 Figure 19: Buffers around Bike Share Stations..................................................................... 33 Figure 20: Jobs within 300m Buffers Around Ecobici Stations ................................................