Current situation and trends of the bio-based industries in Europe with a focus on bio-based materials Pilot Study for BBI JU nova-Institute June 2017 Authors Lara Dammer | Michael Carus | Kerstin Iffland | Dr. Stephan Piotrowski Luis Sarmento | Raj Chinthapalli | Achim Raschka nova-Institut GmbH Bio-based Industries Joint Undertaking www.nova-Institut.eu www.bbi-europe.eu Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary................................ ...................................................................... 8 2 Goal, Scope and Methodology ................................................................................... 17 3 Markets and products ................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Automotive ....................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Textiles .............................................................................................................. 25 3.3 Medical, healthcare and pharmaceuticals ......................................................... 30 3.4 Personal and home care ..................................................................................... 47 3.5 Food and feed additives .................................................................................... 57 3.6 Construction and furniture ................................................................................ 64 3.7 Packaging .......................................................................................................... 69 3.8 Pulp and paper ................................................................................................... 77 3.9 Bioenergy and biofuels ..................................................................................... 82 4 Socio-economic aspects .............................................................................................. 95 4.1 Employment, turnover, GDP ............................................................................ 95 4.2 Public and private investment ......................................................................... 113 5 Climate change mitigation and environmental aspects ............................................ 123 5.1 GHG emission reduction and climate change mitigation ............................... 123 5.2 Organic residues as feedstock ......................................................................... 134 6 European, national and regional policies .................................................................. 143 6.1 Key findings of the assessed studies ............................................................... 150 6.2 Discussion and identification of gaps ............................................................. 157 7 Research and technologies ....................................................................................... 159 7.1 Key findings of the assessed studies ............................................................... 169 7.2 Trends and emerging markets ......................................................................... 171 7.3 Discussion and identification of gaps ............................................................. 173 8 Global trends ............................................................................................................ 174 8.1 International markets ....................................................................................... 174 8.2 Policies and initiatives outside the EU ............................................................ 184 9 Social benefits and consumer acceptance ................................................................. 198 9.1 Consumer awareness, acceptance and trends .................................................. 198 9.2 Product properties and functionalities ............................................................. 208 10 Final remarks ............................................................................................................ 212 1 | nova-Institute BBI pilot study – Trends of the bio-based industries List of illustrations Figure 1: World Fiber Consumption and market 2015. ....................................................... 26 Figure 2: Development of cellulosic fibre production ......................................................... 27 Figure 3: Consumption of fibres by fibre type 2050, million tonnes (BAU and bio-based scenario). ...................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 4: Example of the different segments of the excipients market; based on the revenue percent sales breakdown for an oral solid drug formulation. ...................................... 35 Figure 5: Comparison of various policy inputs and their effect on biotech output in various countries. ...................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 6: Classic plant drugs extracted from plants. ............................................................ 39 Figure 7: Current biologics and market size. ....................................................................... 40 Figure 8: Technologies under development for plant-based pharmaceuticals ..................... 40 Figure 9: Industrial production of vitamins. ........................................................................ 41 Figure 10: Woldwide pharmaceutical market with predictions starting from 2005 ($ Billions). 41 Figure 11: Global pharmaceutical sales ............................................................................... 43 Figure 12: Top 10 companies and worldwide prescription drug sales from biotechnology in 2015 and predictions for 2022. .................................................................................... 43 Figure 13: Result of global analysis of substitution potential of toluene (black). ............... 55 Figure 14: Classification of animal feed additives. ............................................................. 60 Figure 15: Classification of food additives. ......................................................................... 61 Figure 16: Global production capacities of bioplastics 2016 (by market segment) ............ 73 Figure 17: Consumption of Biodegradable Plastic Products by Application in the European Union, 100,000 t tonnes in 2015 in per cent. ............................................................... 74 Figure 18: Polymers in Compostable and Biodegradable Plastic Products Produced in the European Union, 100,000 tonnes in 2015 in per cent. ................................................. 74 Figure 19: Turnover in the EU bio-based economy, excluding agriculture, forestry, fishery, food, beverages, and tobacco products (2013 total: € 600 billion). ............................. 80 Figure 20: Overview of modelling results: LUC emissions per scenario ............................ 89 Figure 21: Estimates of sustainable future biomass harvests in EJ/a, without energy plantations by 2100. ..................................................................................................... 90 Figure 22: Overview of existing jet fuel technologies. ........................................................ 92 Figure 23: Turnover in the bioeconomy in the EU-28 2008-2014 .................................... 102 Figure 24: Turnover in the bioeconomy (excl. food, feed and tobacco) in the EU-28, 2008- 2014. .......................................................................................................................... 103 Figure 25: Turnover in the bio-based economy in the EU-28, 2008-2014 ........................ 104 Figure 26: Employment in the bioeconomy in the EU-28, 2008-2014 .............................. 105 2 | nova-Institute BBI pilot study – Trends of the bio-based industries Figure 27: Employment in the bioeconomy (excl. food, feed and tobacco) in the EU-28, 2008-2014. ................................................................................................................. 106 Figure 28: Employment in the bio-based economy in the EU-28, 2008-2014 .................. 107 Figure 29: Turnover and employment in the EU bio-based economy per Member State 2013. .......................................................................................................................... 108 Figure 30: Turnover and employment in the EU bio-based economy per Member State 2014. .......................................................................................................................... 108 Figure 31: Employment per turnover in sectors of the bio-based economy, 2008-2014 ... 110 Figure 32: Bio-based shares in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 2008- 2014. .......................................................................................................................... 111 Figure 33: Shares of bio-based product values in the total product value of chemicals and chemicals products, 2008-2014. ................................................................................ 112 Figure 34: Investments in bio-based chemicals by region and production capacity ......... 117 Figure 35: Investments in bio-based chemicals by region and number of projects ........... 118 Figure 36: Evolution of bioplastics production capacities by region ................................ 119 Figure 37: Criteria determining biobased investment decisions ........................................ 120 Figure 38: Share