GOOD MONEY STILL GOING BAD: DIGITAL THIEVES AND THE HIJACKING OF THE ONLINE AD BUSINESS A FOLLOW-UP TO THE 2014 REPORT ON THE PROFITABILITY OF AD-SUPPORTED CONTENT THEFT MAY 2015 @4saferinternet A safer internet is a better internet CONTENTS CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................ii TABLE OF REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................................................................iii Figures.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................iii Tables ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................iii ABOUT THIS REPORT ..........................................................................................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 GOOD MONEY STILL GOING BAD ........................................................................................................................................................3 ANALYSIS OF KEY TRENDS..........................................................................................................................................................................8 Video Streaming Fuels a Growing Revenue Stream—and Threat .................................................................8 Malware .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Fraud and Impression Laundering .................................................................................................................................................9 Whack-a-Mole and Growth Cycles in Content Theft ............................................................................................... 10 Problems for Premium and Secondary Brands ...............................................................................................................11 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS .........................................................................................................................................13 APPENDICES ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................14 Appendix A: Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................................14 Appendix B: Segment Revenue Detail ....................................................................................................................................20 Appendix C: Page Views and Unique Visitors ..................................................................................................................23 Appendix D: Sites Studied ....................................................................................................................................................................24 Appendix E: Premium Brands Appearing on Sample Sites ...............................................................................29 Appendix F: Ad Networks Serving Content Theft Sites .........................................................................................30 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS....................................................................................................................................................................................31 ii GOOD MONEY STILL GOING BAD STILL GOOD MONEY TABLE OF REFERENCES FIGURES Figure 1: Example BitTorrent Portal (torrentreactor.com).........................................................................................................................................................................................4 Figure 2: Example Linking Site (cokeandpopcorn.ch) ................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Figure 3: Example Video Streaming Host (vidbull.com)..........................................................................................................................................................................................6 Figure 4: Example DDL Host (4shared.com) ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................7 Figure 5: Estimated growth in video ad spending ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Figure 6: Projected Online Video Ad CPMs ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 7: Software download link on zumvo.com ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 8: Virus detected on zumvo.com ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 9: Extratorrent.cc, large BitTorrent portal ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................11 Figure 10: Extratorrent.com to .cc Trend ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11 Figure 11: Percent of sites displaying ad types. ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Figure 12: PIPCU Operation Creative replaces ads with warnings on content theft sites ...................................................................................................13 Figure 13: 2014 Sites by Functional and Size Segments .......................................................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 14: Comparison of 2013 and 2014 samples by functional segment ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 15: Comparison of 2013 and 2014 samples by size segment......................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 16: Comparison of 2013 and 2014 revenue by functional segment ........................................................................................................................................22 Figure 17: Comparison of 2013 and 2014 revenue by site size .........................................................................................................................................................................22 TABLES Table 1: Q3 Aggregate Annual Ad Revenue, Margin for Ad-Supported Sites ....................................................................................................................................3 Table 2: Torrent Portal Average/Aggregate Results ....................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Table 3: Linking Sites Average, Aggregate Results.......................................................................................................................................................................................................5 iii Table 4: Video Streaming Host Average, Aggregate Ad Revenue ...............................................................................................................................................................6 Table 5: DDL Host Sites Average, Aggregate Ad Revenue ...................................................................................................................................................................................7