Dissertation Loosening the Okinawan Knot A Mixed-Methods Study of Okinawan Public Perceptions of the U.S. Military Balys Gintautas This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2018 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Sherrill Lingel (Chair), Ryan Brown, and Thomas Weisner. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSDA814-1.html Published 2020 by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org …we have learned that the challenges facing the world require a much broader conception and application of national power than just military prowess. The government and the Department of Defense need to engage additional intellectual disciplines—such as history, anthropology, sociology, and evolutionary psychology. …Too many mistakes have been made over the years because our government and military did not understand – or even seek to understand – the countries or cultures we were dealing with.1 -Robert M. Gates, Secretary of Defense, 2008 Abstract The objective of this dissertation monograph is to provide U.S.-Japan Alliance managers,2 scholars and analysts, and the general public with a more detailed and reliable understanding of the nature of the Okinawan public’s perceptions, policy preferences, and cultural attitudes regarding the problems and benefits associated with the U.S. military in Okinawa (USFO). To achieve this objective, a mix of qualitative and quantitative anthropological and statistical methods were used to analyze prefecturally-representative survey data obtained from the Okinawa Prefectural Government and ethnographic data collected during field work in Okinawa. More specifically, this research explores the Okinawan people’s broad public policy priorities, examines their satisfaction with ongoing efforts to address base problems, identifies and describes the most salient and important problems and benefits they associate with USFO, and highlights some common misconceptions, miscommunications, and other cultural insights related to those problems and benefits. These findings are intended to make public relations and impact mitigation programs, policies, and communications more culturally relevant and responsive. Doing so should not only improve relations between U.S.-Japan Alliance representatives and the Okinawan public, but also organically increase political support for USFO among the broader Okinawan populace, political support that may be necessary to ensure the political feasibility of U.S. basing rights in the future. 1 Excerpt from a speech delivered by former Secretary of Defense Robert M Gates, Washington D.C., April 14, 2008. The full speech may be found here: http://archive.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID=1228. 2 For example, political representatives, base commanders, diplomatic communicators, public relations staff, etc. iii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... iii Figures .......................................................................................................................................................... iv Tables ........................................................................................................................................................... vi Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................. viii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9 §1.1 Research Questions ........................................................................................................................... 9 §1.2 Introduction to Okinawa and U.S Forces, Okinawa (USFO) ......................................................... 11 §1.3 Policy Relevance and Contribution to the Literature ..................................................................... 25 Chapter 2. Data Sources, Research Design, and Analytic Methods ........................................................... 37 §2.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 37 §2.2 Data Sources ................................................................................................................................... 39 §2.3 Analytic Methods ........................................................................................................................... 52 Chapter 3: Okinawan Public Policy Priorities ........................................................................................... 63 §3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 63 §3.2 The Okinawan Public’s Public Policy Priorities ............................................................................ 65 §3.3 Demographics Most Concerned with Base Problems .................................................................... 76 Chapter 4: Okinawan Satisfaction with Efforts to Address Base Problems and Priority “Solutions” ........ 94 §4.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 94 §4.2 Okinawan Satisfaction with Current Efforts to Address Base Problems ....................................... 97 §4.3 Demographics Most (Un)satisfied with Efforts to Address Base Problems ................................ 107 §4.4 Priority “Solutions” ...................................................................................................................... 117 §4.5 Demographic Variability of Specific “Solution” Priorities .......................................................... 123 Chapter 5: Okinawan Public Perceptions of U.S. Military Problems ....................................................... 133 §5.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 133 §5.2 Range of USFO-related Problems ................................................................................................ 135 §5.3 Priority Problems .......................................................................................................................... 143 §5.4 A Richer, Qualitative Exploration of USFO Problems ................................................................ 166 Chapter 6: Okinawan Public Perceptions of U.S. Military Benefits ......................................................... 182 §6.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 182 §6.2 Range of USFO-related Benefits .................................................................................................. 183 §6.3 Priority Benefits ............................................................................................................................ 187 §6.4 A Richer, Qualitative Exploration of USFO Benefits .................................................................. 201 Chapter 7: Summarizing Empirical Findings and Policy Recommendations ........................................... 218 §7.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 218 §7.2 Summarizing Empirical Findings ................................................................................................. 220 §7.3 Summarizing Policy Recommendations ....................................................................................... 236 References ................................................................................................................................................