Planning and costing of agricultural adaptation in the integrated hill farming systems of Nepal Bikash Paudel, B.B. Tamang, Krishna Lamsal and Pratima Paudel September, 2011 Planning and costing of agricultural adaptation with reference to integrated hill farming systems in Nepal Contacts: Local Initiatives for Biodiversity, Research and Development (LI-BIRD), P.O. Box 324, Pokhara, Kaski, Nepal • Tel: (+977) 61 535357/526834 • Fax: (+977) 61 539956 • E-mails: Bikash Paudel: [email protected]; B.B. Tamang: [email protected]; Krishna Lamsa: [email protected]; Pratima Paudel: [email protected] International Institute for Environment and Development, IIED, 80-86 Gray’s Inn Road, London WC1X 8NH, UK • Tel: +44 (0)20 3463 7399 • Fax: +44 (0)20 3514 9055 • Email: [email protected] Citation: Paudel, B., Tamang, B.B., Lamsal, K. and Paudel, P. 2011. Planning and costing of agricultural adaptation with reference to integrated hill farming systems in Nepal. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), London, UK. This report is part of a five-country research project on planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change, led by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (GCAP). This project was funded by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) under the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Policy Research Programme. All omissions and inaccuracies in this document are the responsibility of the authors. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the institutions involved, nor do they necessarily represent official policies of DFID Acknowledgement: The contribution of stakeholders, including the DDC, DADO and DLSO in Dhading, the DoA, DLS, NARC, MOAC and ASC in Benighat, and the VDCs in Jogimara and Salang, is duly acknowledged. The technical contributions of Mr Keshab Thapa, Mr Sajal Sthapit, Mr Abishkar Subedi, Dr S.N. Neopane, Ms Rachana Devkota, Dr R.B. Rana, Ms Laxmi Rai and Mr Durga N. Shrestha are also acknowledged. We appreciate the participation of the communities in Salang and Jogimara. Lastly, thanks go to IIED, SEI and GCAPP for technical support. - 1 - Planning and costing of agricultural adaptation with reference to integrated hill farming systems in Nepal Table of contents Acronyms and abbreviations .................................................................................................... 4 Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 6 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Country background ...................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Agriculture as the mainstay of the Nepalese economy ................................................. 7 1.3 The intersection of food insecurity and climatic vulnerability ......................................... 7 1.4 The growth of the Nepalese economy and sensitivity to weather variability ................. 8 1.5 Nepalese farming systems and altitude differentials ..................................................... 9 1.5.1 The unique integrated hill farming system ........................................................... 9 1.5.2 The importance of the integrated hill farming system to Nepal .......................... 10 1.5.3 The indifference of government policy towards the integrated hill farming system ............................................................................................ 11 2. Case study objectives and methodology ........................................................................... 12 2.1 Objectives of the case study ........................................................................................ 12 2.2 Methodology for the case study ................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 General characteristics of the sites .................................................................... 13 2.2.2 Agricultural characteristics of the sites .............................................................. 14 2.2.3 Tools and techniques......................................................................................... 14 3. Impacts of climate change ................................................................................................. 17 3.1 Increase in temperature; increase in intensity of rainfall; and longer dry spells .......... 17 3.2 Locally-observed trends are similar to the predictions ................................................ 18 3.3 Impacts of climate change observed by communities ................................................. 18 3.4 Effects of climate change on the farming systems ...................................................... 20 3.4.1 Perceptions of the respondents regarding changes in productivity of major crops/animals in the farming system ................................................... 20 3.4.2 Major causes perceived by farmers for the decrease in the productivity of major crops/animals in the farming system ................................................................. 21 3.4.3 Effects of reduced precipitation on the farming system ..................................... 23 3.4.4 Increased frequency of extreme weather events ............................................... 25 3.4.5 Effects on the livestock system .......................................................................... 25 3.5 Other significant recent changes in the farming system not directly attributed to climate change ....................................................................................................... 25 3.6 Climate change as a contributing factor to overall changes ........................................ 26 - 2 - Planning and costing of agricultural adaptation with reference to integrated hill farming systems in Nepal 4. Planning for adaptation ...................................................................................................... 28 4.1 Adaptation pathway and signatures ............................................................................ 28 4.1.1 Descriptions of the adaptation signatures .......................................................... 29 5. Cost of adaptation signatures ............................................................................................ 32 5.1 Costing at different levels (household, community, district and national) ................... 32 5.2 Costs of immediate and long-term signatures ............................................................. 34 5.3 Distribution of costs for agricultural development (and in particular for adaptation) ... 35 5.4 Implications drawn from costing of the adaptation signatures .................................... 36 5.5 Distribution of costs for adaptation among different stakeholders .............................. 37 6. Institutional and policy analysis for agricultural adaptation in Nepal .................................. 38 6.1 Institutional analysis ..................................................................................................... 38 6.2 Current fund flow in agricultural development and climate change adaptation ............ 40 6.2.1 Trends of government expenditure in related sectors ....................................... 40 6.2.2 Possibilities for private sector investment .......................................................... 41 6.2.3 Trend of foreign aid in the agricultural sector .................................................... 41 6.2.4 Bilateral and multilateral donors ........................................................................ 42 6.3 Analysis of climate change and development policies ................................................ 43 6.4 Climate change information ......................................................................................... 44 6.5 Integration of climate change knowledge in current agriculture plans ......................... 45 7. Conclusions and policy messages ..................................................................................... 46 References ............................................................................................................................. 47 - 3 - Planning and costing of agricultural adaptation with reference to integrated hill farming systems in Nepal Acronyms and abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank AICC Agriculture Information and Communication Centre AMD Agrometeorological Division ASC Agriculture service centre CC Climate change CCM Climate Change Management Division CFUG Community forest user group CRISTAL Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods DADO District agriculture development office Danida Danish International Development Agency DDC District development committee DFID Department for International Development, UK DFO District forest office DHM Department of Hydrology and Meteorology DIO District irrigation office DLS Department of Livestock Services DLSO District livestock service office DoA Department of Agriculture DoC Department of Cooperatives DoF Department of Forests DoI Department of Irrigation DSC Department of Soil Conservation DSCO District soil conservation office FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FY Financial