VVFPOILI 0 WORLDBANK TECHNICALPAPER NUMBER 166 Public Disclosure Authorized Ifrigation Planning with Environmental Considerations A Case Study of Pakistan's Indus Basin FILECopy Masood Ahmad and Gary P. Kutcher Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized P!Ls_ mN*LN TNR-MENG Public Disclosure Authorized EVEN TUMAND STI RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNIC'AL PAPERS No. 103 Banerjee, Shrubsin TropicalForest Ecosystems: Examples from India No. 104 Schware, The WorldSoftware Industry and SoftwareEngineering: Opportunities and Constraints for Newly IndustrializedEconomies No. 105 Pasha and McGarry, Rural VWaterSupply and Sanitationin Pakistan:Lessons from Experience No. 106 Pinto and Besant-Jones,Demand and NetbackValues for Gas in Electricity No. 107 Electric Power Research Institute and EMENA, The CurrentState of AtmosphericFluidized-Bed CombustionTechnology No. 108 Falloux, LandInformation and RemoteSensingfor RenewableResource Management in Sub-Saharan Africa:A Demand-DrivenApproach (also in French, 108F) No. 109 Carr, Technologyfor Small-ScaleFarmers in Sub-SaharanAfrica: Experience with FoodCrop Production in Five Major EcologicalZones No. 110 Dixon, Talbot, and Le Moigne, Damsand theEnvironment: Considerations in WorldBank Projects No. 111 Jeffcoate and Pond, LargeWater Meters: Guidelines for Selection,Testing, and Maintenance No. 112 Cook and Grut, Agroforestryin Sub-SaharanAfrica: A Farmer'sPerspective No. 113 Vergara and Babelon, The PetrochemicalIndustry in DevelopingAsia: A Review of the Current Situationand Prospectsfor Developmentin the 1990s No. 114 McGuire and Popkins, Helping WomenImprove Nutrition in the DevelopingWorld: Beating the Zero Sum Game No. 115 Le Moigne, Plusquellec, and Barghouti, Dam Safetyand the Environment No. 116 Nelson, DrylandManagement: The "Desertification"Problem No. 117 Barghouti, Timmer, and Siegel, Rural Diversification:Lessons from East Asia No. 118 Pritchard, Lendingby the WorldBank for AgriculturalResearch: A Reviewof the Years 1981 through1987 No. 119 Asia Region Technical Department, FloodControl in Bangladesh:A Planfor Action No. 120 Plusquellec, The GeziraIrrigation Scheme in Sudan:Objectives, Design, and Performance No. 121 Listorti, EnvironmentalHealth Components for WaterSupply, Sanitation,and UrbanProjects No. 122 Dessing, Supportfor Microenterprises:Lessons for Sub-SaharanAfrica No. 123 Barghouti and Le Moigne, Irrigationin Sub-SaharanAfrica: The Developmentof Public and PrivateSystems No. 124 Zyrnelman, Science,Education, and Developmentin Sub-SaharanAfrica No. 125 van de Walle and Foster, FertilityDecline in Africa:Assessment and Prospects No. 126 Davis, MacKnight, IMO Staff, and Others, EnvironmentalConsiderationsfor Port and Harbor Developments No. 127 Doolette and Magrath, editors, WatershedDevelopment in Asia:Strategies and Technologies No. 128 Gastellu-Etchegorry, editor, SatelliteRemote Sensing for AgriculturalProjects No. 129 Berkoff,Irrigation Management on theIndo-Gangetic Plain No. 130 Agnes Kiss, editor, Living with Wildlife:Wildlife Resource Management with LocalParticipation in Africa No. 131 Nair, The Prospectsfor Agroforestryin the Tropics No. 132 Murphy, Casley, and Curry, Farmers'Estimations as a Sourceof ProductionData: Methodological Guidelinesfor Cerealsin Africa No. 133 Agriculture and Rural Development Department, ACIAR, AIDAB,and ISNAR,Agricultural Biotechnology:The Next "GreenRevolution"? No. 134 de Haan and Bekure,Animal HIealthin Sub-SaharanAfrica: Initial Experienceswith Alternative Approaches (List continues on the inside back cover) WORLDBANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 166 Irrigation Planning with Environmental Considerations A Case Study of Pakistan's Indus Basin Masood Ahmad and Gary P. Kutcher The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright 0 1992 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLDBANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing April 1992 Technical Papers are published to conmnunicate the results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The findings, interpretations, and condusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the courntries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data induded in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designations and presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its Board or member countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of the authorities thereof or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to photocopy portions for dassroom use is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications,which contains an alphabetical title list (with full ordering information) and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from the Distribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, Department F, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. ISSN: 0253-7494 Masood Ahmad is a water resources engineer in the World Bank's Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Region. This work was undertaken while he was with the Envirornment Department. Gary P. Kutcher is an agricultural and water resources economist. He is a former Bank staff member and currently a consultant to the Bank and other international organizations. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ahmad, Masood. Irrigation planning with environmental considerations: a case study of Pakistan's Indus Basin / Masood Ahmad and Gary P. Kutcher. p. cm. - (World Bank technical paper, ISSN 0253-7494; no. 166) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-2080-7 1. Irrigation engineering-Environmental aspects-Pakistan-Case studies. 2. Soil salinization-Pakistan--Case studies. 3. Waterlogging (Soils)-Pakistan-Case studies. 4. Irrigation- -Pakistan-Management-Case studies. 5. Irrigation engineering- -Environmental aspects-Indus River Watershed-Case studies. I. Kutcher, Gary P., 1944- . 1I. Title. II. Series. TD195.H93A36 1992 627'.52'095491-dc2O 92-6782 CIP ... Foreword Waterloggingand salinityare two of the major environmentalproblems associated with large irrigationsystems. It is in this contextthat the EnvironmentDepartment is very pleased to share the results of this case study for the Indus Basin irrigationsystem, which analyzes causes of waterlogging and salinity and suggests possible remedies. The methodology and the techniques developed for this case study can be considered as applicable generallyto irrigation systemsoperating in semi-arid and arid environments. Mohamed T. El-Ashry Director EnvironmentDepartment iv Acknowledgements The authors have been inspired by, and have benefited from, discussions with Warren Fairchild, S.S. Kirmani, Peter S. Lee, Richard Meyers, Walter Ochs, Willem Vlotner, and Tae-Hee Yoon. Walter Ochs and Herve Plusquellec commented on an earlier draft. None of these should be held responsible for any errors or any views expressed in this study. They are grateful to Anthony Brooke, John H. Duloy, Alexander Meeraus, and Gerald T. O'Mara for their earlier work on the Indus Basin Models. Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................. 1 Historical Background ................................ 1 Emerging Problems .................................. 2 The Water Sector Investment Plan ...................... 4 Objectives of this Study ............................... 5 2 The Indus Basin Model Revised ........................ 7 Background ............. .......................... 7 Overview of the IBMR ................................ 8 The Zone Models ................................... 13 The Province Models ................................ 14 Appendix: The Agro-Climatic Zones .................... 15 3 Agricultural Performance 1988-2000.......... .. ............... 17 Agricultural Production (1988) ......................... 17 Resource Use (1988) ................................ 21 Projections to 2000: Assumptions ....................... 24 Projections for 2000: With No Further Investment .... ....... 26 Projections for 2000: With WSIP Investment ............... 27 Appendix: Surface Water System Inflows ................. 32 4 Environmental Issues ..... ............ ..................... 37 Environmental Priorities .............................