Discussion Points of the Mediation Support Network (MSN) No. 7 Atlanta 2015 Challenges to Mediation Support in Hot Wars: Learnings from Syria and Ukraine Foreword by Jimmy Carter Participants at the MSN meeting in Atlanta: Miguel Alvarez Gandara (SERAPAZ), Hrair Balian (The Carter Center), Roxaneh Bazergan (UN MSU), Virginia M. Bouvier (USIP), Tom Crick (The Carter Center), Teresa Dumasy (Conciliation Resources), Paul Dziatkowiec (HD), Sara Hellmüller (swisspeace, MSP), Anna Hess (CSS, MSP), Sofie Karlsson (FBA), Lars Kirchhoff (CPM), Natacha Kunama (ACCORD), Jennie K. Lincoln (The Carter Center), Christopher McNaboe (The Carter Center), Walter Odhiambo (NPI-Africa), Jordan Ryan (The Carter Center), Rachel Schiller (U.S. State Department), Nikki Singer (CPCS), Ngarm Plai Soth (SEACSN/CPCS), Valerie Sticher (CSS, MSP), Danielle Taylor (The Carter Center), Luxshi Vimalarajah (Berghof Foundation). Authors: Lars Kirchhoff, Sara Hellmüller, Anna Hess, Anne Isabel Kraus, Chris McNaboe, Valerie Sticher Editor: Valerie Sticher Disclaimer: MSN Discussion Points summarize the authors’ reflections on discussions held at network meetings and do not aim to provide a comprehensive or consensus MSN view. Online version: www.mediationsupportnetwork.net Print version: Send an e-mail to [email protected] Copyright: © Mediation Support Network 2016 Series: Discussion Points of the Mediation Support Network (MSN) Layout: Miriam Dahinden-Ganzoni (CSS) Acknowledgements: Many thanks for the feedback from Roxaneh Bazergan, Natacha Kunama, David Lanz and Simon Mason. Thank you to Katrina Abatis for proofreading. Thank you for the financial support from the Mediation Support Project, a joint project of the Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich and swisspeace funded by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. ISSN: 2413-2020 Contents Foreword ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 1. Introduction �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������6 2. Syria Case Study ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������6 3. Ukraine Case Study �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������9 4. Implications and Recommendations for Mediation Support ������������������������������������������12 4.1 Improving and Better Anchoring Conflict Analysis in Practice.................................12 4.2 Spelling out “Inclusivity” of Peace Processes from a Mediation Perspective ���������13 4.3 Rethinking Cooperation in the Peace Mediation Market �����������������������������������������14 5. Conclusion and Implications Beyond Hot Wars ��������������������������������������������������������������15 – 4 – Foreword By Jimmy Carter In October 2015, the global Mediation Support Network met at The Carter Center to discuss how best to support peacemaking efforts while war is still raging. There is always a moral imperative to stop the fighting as quickly as possible, but can this be accomplished in a manner that results in recovery and lasting peace? Since I began to address violent conflicts through The Carter Center, our understanding of how mediation can support peace has developed significantly. Resolving differences between the major warring protagonists is just a first step. Experience shows that peace succeeds when all the affected parties, not just the primary combatants, have a meaningful voice. In practice, this requires deliberate efforts to include women at all negotiation tables, along with a wide range of civil society groups. It means engaging all armed factions and invest- ing the time, resources, and patience to build a process of inclusive, local decision-making and compromise. This publication examines the challenges of implementing such an inclusive approach in the real world and how diplomats and mediation experts can work in the complex war environ- ment. Topics include the need for early warning, long-term engagement and conflict analy- sis; coordination and inclusion; relations between various mediation stakeholders; how to avoid conflicts of interest; and, the principles of “do no harm” and “both sides win.” The collection is essential reading for those seeking to intervene during war with the goal of building lasting peace. – 5 – 1. Introduction 2. Syria case study Hot wars pose distinct challenges to peacemaking ef- Five long years after the Syrian conflict started, hope is forts. In fluid and quickly changing contexts, coordina- finally emerging for a political solution to the conflict. tion is difficult, information is highly politicized, and ac- This hope, which comes in the form of the ongoing tors are tempted to rush in without proper preparation. intra-Syrian talks, represents a new major phase of a The humanitarian situation puts enormous pressure on long international effort to mediate and manage the third parties to resolve the conflict, and to do so as conflict. quickly as possible. There may be an increased willing- ness on the side of international actors to compromise Observers generally agree that the Syrian conflict be- on established principles, such as inclusivity or national gan with widespread protests on 15 March 2011. The ownership, in order to stop the carnage. This all begs protests were met with violence by the government and the question: how can we best support peacemaking pro-government paramilitaries. The suppressions led to efforts while war is still waging? more protests and the cycle continued until late 2011, when a growing number of defectors from the military From 12 to 14 October 2015, the Mediation Support began to take up arms. Network (MSN) met in Atlanta, US, under the auspices of The Carter Center to discuss this timely question. The initial clashes between the Syrian military and The combination of conceptual discussions and case the decentralized, armed opposition calling itself the studies allowed the space to take a detailed look into “Free Syrian Army”, were limited in size and geographic the inner workings, promises, challenges and pitfalls of scope, and led to the first international attempts at the contemporary field of peace mediation. mediating the conflict. This effort took the form of an observer team led by the Arab League and, in Febru- The core idea of the MSN is to discuss and develop ary 2012, the naming of Kofi Annan as Joint Special good practice in the field. The discussions at the MSN Envoy of the UN and Arab League on the Syrian crisis. meetings present a unique opportunity to exchange on Annan’s tenure marks the most visible start of interna- and discuss how to deal with the multiple constraints tional mediation efforts. For analytical purposes, these and dilemmas mediation support actors face. In this efforts can be divided into three major phases, which edition of the MSN Discussion Points, we focus on the are characterized in terms of how international consen- challenges that arise in the context of supporting me- sus evolved (though always remaining tentative), and diation in hot wars, as discussed at the MSN Atlanta by the escalation in violence. In reality, however, these meeting. phases merged into each other, with simultaneous ef- forts underway at track II and III. The following two sections provide a short overview of the situations in Syria (Section I) and Eastern Ukraine Phase 1: First Geneva Communiqué (Section II), including a discussion of the specific chal- lenges mediation support actors face in these contexts. Kofi Annan’s intervention involved an effort to reduce Section III discusses the implications and recommenda- the violence in order to create space for political dia- tions for mediation support. It identifies and elaborates logue. The six-point peace plan, submitted by Annan to on three broad themes that need to be addressed by the UN Security Council shortly after his appointment as mediation support actors when engaging in hot wars: Special Envoy, set in motion a ceasefire and the deploy- improving and better anchoring conflict analysis in ment of an unarmed UN peacekeeping mission to Syria practice, spelling out inclusivity of peace processes (UNSMIS). The idea was that an observed ceasefire from a mediation perspective, and acknowledging the would help create the space for political discussions. competitive nature of peace mediation to rethink co- This process ultimately resulted in what became known operation in this context. The lessons learned from as the first Geneva Communiqué, which became the the two case studies and the discussions at the MSN only point of consensus amongst the parties to the Atlanta meeting extend beyond mediation support in conflict. However, the effort ultimately failed to prevent hot wars, as is explained in the concluding remarks of the conflict from progressing further. Despite Annan’s Section IV. They provide important guidance to state ac- ceasefire, the nascent Syrian armed opposition saw un- tors, regional organizations and NGOs that are currently deterred growth, and regional and international actors establishing or re-defining their profile as future peace continued to support the government and opposition mediation actors. with arms supplies and funding. This publication is inspired by discussions held Phase 2: Geneva II Conference on Syria throughout the MSN Atlanta meeting, building in par- ticular on the two case