KAZAKHSTAN AS AN EMERGING REGIONAL POWER IN CENTRAL ASIA BY MR. TANAPAT VATCAHRANGURA A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIALFULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF POLITICAL SCIENCE IN POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY ACADEMIC YEAR 2017 COPYRIGHT OF THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL KAZAKHSTAN AS AN EMERGING REGIONAL POWER IN CENTRAL ASIA BY MR. TANAPAT VATCHARANGURA A THESISSUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OFPOLITICAL SCIENCE IN POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY ACADEMIC YEAR 2017 COPYRIGHT OF THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (1) Thesis Title KAZAKHSTAN AS AN EMERGING REGIONAL POWER IN CENTRAL ASIA Author Mr.Tanapat Vatcharangura Degree Master of Political Science Major Field/Faculty/University Politics and International Relations Faculty of Political Science Thammasat University Thesis Advisor Asst. Prof. M. L. Pinitbhand Paribatra, Ph.D. Academic Years 2017 ABSTRACT World politics is moving towards multipolarity and has even been considered by some scholars as a post-American international order. William Wohlforth argued, based on a realist assumption, a multipolar system is the result of the emergence of regional unipolarity that builds a coalition vis-à-vis the superpower. Multipolarization has become one of the main priorities of developing countries in order to transform themselves into a future power bloc in the future multipolar system. Therefore, IR literature contains discussions of a variety of rising powers with overlapping concepts and definitions. Different IR scholars define different power categories based on their conceptualization. For instance, the definition of an emerging middle power by Daniel Flemes contains similar characteristics to Samuel Huntington's major regional power definition. So, the discussion of rising powers, apart from the BRICS countries, is the focus of IR literature. The collapse of the Soviet Union has dramatically shifted political geopolitics and has particularly contributed to five newly- independent states in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. A power vacuum occurred in Central Asia after the demise of the Soviet Union and Russia lost its hegemonic status in Central Asia. For this reason, leadership in Central Asia is empty and the leadership of the region is obscure and ambiguous. Historically Kazakhstan has not been considered a regional power, unlike Uzbekistan, which was once considered a historical regional power before being incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1924. Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (2) However, Kazakhstan, since its independence in 1991, has demonstrated remarkable potential with its rapid socio-economic development and it has established itself as the only middle-income country (MIC) in Central Asia. With its superior economic supremacy and material capabilities, Kazakhstan is now considered as an emerging player in international politics, despite not being considered as a regional power candidate. To assess Kazakhstan’s recent development and its potential regional position, this paper utilizes regional power indicators based on the power theory proposed by Daniel Flemes, which includes– leadership claims, possession of necessary power resources (material and ideational resources), the employment of foreign policy instruments (foreign policy and institutional instruments) and acceptance of leadership. This paper concludes by evaluating the findings and advances further questions related to regional power theory and Kazakhstan. This paper argues that Kazakhstan possesses sufficient regional power qualifications and Kazakhstan can be regarded as a regional power in Central Asia. Keywords: Kazakhstan, Regional Power, Emerging Power, Power Theories, Central Asian States, Daniel Flemes Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (3) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis is part of the Master Degree in International Relations, Thammasat University. This thesis could not have been completed without Asst. Prof. Dr. M.L. Pinitbhand Paribatra, whom I would like to express my gratitude for offering indispensable comments and advice for my thesis. I would also like to thank the external examiner, Asst. Prof. Dr. Natthanan Kunnamas, and the committee chair, Asst. Prof. Dr. Chanintirana Thalang, for their advice, time, and suggestions. I would have not finished this research without their great knowledge and experience, which provided significant contributions to this thesis. Furthermore, I would like to express my greatest gratitude to my family, especially my mother, who always understood and gave moral and financial support to me during the entire procedure of my research. Moreover, I would like to thank BMIR’s officers, particularly Kanchana Kumhun (P’ Nong) for helping me throughout my master’s degree studies and research. In addition, I would like to thank all my BMIR4 friends, particularly, Mimi, Gurnam, Karn, Apache, Pentor, Film, Tong and P’ M for their support and cheering me on. Lastly, thanks to Arm, my closest friend who travelled with me to the China-Kazakhstan border in 2015, which inspired me to write about Kazakhstan and Central Asia. The writing of this thesis was another step in my life overcoming my “self”. It helped me grow and become a more disciplined person. Hopefully, this thesis will pave the way for my career in academia, particularly my academic career in Post-Soviet Studies. Moreover, I hope my dedication to Central Asia studies will contribute additional academic debate in this regard. Mr. Tanapat Vatcharangura Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (4) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT (1) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS (3) LIST OF TABLES (7) LIST OF FIGURES (8) CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and Issues 1 1.2 Research Questions 5 1.3 Objectives of Study 6 1.4 Theoretical Framework 6 1.4.1 Regional Power Theory 7 1.5 Hypothesis 10 1.6 Research Methodology 10 1.7 Scope of Study 11 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 12 2.1 Power Hierarchies 12 2.2 Kazakhstan’s Domestic Affairs 15 2.3 Role of International Actors 18 2.4 Comparative Case Study of Rising Powers 20 2.5 Regional Leadership 23 2.6 Conclusion 24 Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (5) CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT 26 3.1 Pre-Independence Kazakhstan 26 3.1.1 Pre-Tsarist Kazakhstan 26 3.1.2 The Russian Empire 27 3.1.3 The Kazakhstan Soviet Socialist Republic 28 3.2 The Republic of Kazakhstan 30 3.2.1 Demographics and Geography 31 3.2.2 Political System 34 3.2.3 Economic System 36 3.2.4 The National Fund of Kazakhstan 42 3.2.5 The Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund 46 3.2.6 2050 Eternal Kazakhstan 49 3.3 Conclusion 50 CHAPTER 4 KAZAKHSTAN’S CLAIM TO LEADERSHIP AND POWERRESOURCES 51 4.1 Kazakhstan’s Claim of Leadership 58 4.2 Kazakhstan’s Material Powers 61 4.3 Kazakhstan’s Ideational Powers 68 4.4 Conclusion 72 CHAPTER 5 KAZAKHSTAN’S EMPLOYMENT OF FOREIGN POLICY INSTRUMENT AND REGIONAL ACCEPTANCE 73 5.1 Material Foreign Policy Instrument 73 5.2 Institutional Foreign Policy Instrument 79 5.3 Discursive Foreign Policy Instrument 84 5.4 Acceptance of Leadership 91 5.5 Conclusion 98 CHAPTER6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH AGENDA 99 6.1 Research Problems and Findings 99 Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (6) 6.2 Theoretical Contribution 103 6.3 Caveats and Future Research Agenda 105 REFERENCES 107 APPENDICES Appendix A: A Meeting between Nazarbayev and American Officials Including Secretary of State James Baker 122 Appendix B: Lagarde: Kazakhstan Is a Country with a Promising Future 126 BIOGRAPHY 131 Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (7) LIST OF TABLES Tables Page 4.1 Region-based Military Expenditure and Comparison 64 4.2 Region-based Material Power Comparison 2015 65 4.3 Region-based Economic Power Comparison 67 5.1 Proportion of Kazakhstan’s FDI from 2005-2015 89 Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL (8) LIST OF FIGURES Figures Page 1.1 Kazakhstan’s Crude Oil Exports by Destination, 2016 3 3.1 Kazakhstan’s Ethnic Composition 32 3.2 Kazakhstan’s Administrative Division 33 3.3 Kazakhstan’s GDP Annual Growth Rate 38 3.4 Kazakhstan’s Export Composition 39 3.5 Kazakhstan’s Trade Summary from 2005-2015 40 3.6 Sources of the National Fund Income I 43 3.7 Sources of the National Fund Income II 43 3.8 Organization Chart of the National Fund 44 3.9 Guaranteed Transfer of the National Fund 45 3.10 Samruk-Kazyna Assets 48 3.11 Samruk-Kazyna and Temasek Holdings 48 3.12 Samruk-Kazyna Organization Chart 49 4.1 Flow Direction of Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers and Dams 70 Ref. code: 25605803120046NXL 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and Issues Before being incorporated into a peripheral region under the Soviet Union, Central Asia was an important hotspot for the so called “Great Game”, one of the geopolitical significant regions in international politics, bridging Europe and Asia (Eurasia). One of the most influential and famous international geopolitics work in the 20th century, which emphasized Central Asia, was written by Halford Mackinder – an English geographer and politician who advocated the geopolitical significance of Eurasia (modern Central Asia). Mackinder (1919) regarded the region as the Heartland, as a pivot point between Europe and Asia. He furthered his theory by expressing his idea that “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-island controls the world” (p. 150). Although Mackinder’s heartland theory was written almost a hundred years ago, the theory has a significant influence on foreign policy makers in international politics and in the mind of geopolitical decision makers. Consequently, journalists and post-Soviet space scholars are now convinced that a “New Great Game” in Central Asia has started, after roughly 20 years after the birth of the modern Central Asia region (Zabortseva, 2012). There are various factors contributing to the revival of the New Great Game in the 21st century, including the discovery of untouched hydrocarbon and natural gas. Energy politics has long been at the center of a longstanding power struggle within global politics.