First Order Draft Chapter 5 IPCC SR1.5 1 5 Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication 2 and Reducing Inequalities 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Joyashree Roy (India), Petra Tschakert (Australia) 5 6 Lead Authors: Sharina Abdul Halim (Malaysia), Purnamita Dasgupta (India), Bronwyn Hayward (New 7 Zealand), Markku Kanninen (Finland), Sari Kovats (United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), 8 Diana Liverman (United States of America), Patricia Fernanda Pinho (Brazil), Keywan Riahi (Austria), 9 Avelino G. Suarez Rodriguez (Cuba), Penny Urquhart (South Africa), Henri Waisman (France) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Philip Antwi-Agyei (Ghana), Mook Bangalore (United States of America), Maria 12 Figueroa (Venezuela/Denmark), Mukesh Gupta (India), Karen Paiva Henrique (Brazil), Daniel Huppmann 13 (Austria), Chukwumerije Okereke (Nigeria/United Kingdom), Simon Parkinson (Canada), Diana Hinge 14 Salili (Fiji/Vanuatu) 15 16 Review Editors: Svitlana Krakovska (Ukraine), Ramon Pichs Madruga (Cuba), Roberto Sanchez (Mexico) 17 18 Chapter Scientist: Neville Ellis (Australia) 19 20 Date of First-Order Draft: 23 July 2017 21 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 5-1 Total pages: 92 First Order Draft Chapter 5 IPCC SR1.5 1 2 Table of Contents 3 4 5 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................5 6 7 8 5.1 Scope and Delineations ......................................................................................................................7 9 5.1.1 Sustainable Development, Poverty, Equality, and Equity: Core Concepts and Trends ..... 7 10 5.1.2 Sustainable Development Goals ........................................................................................ 8 11 Box 5.1: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ...............................................................................9 12 5.1.3 Climate-Resilient Development Pathways ........................................................................ 9 13 5.1.4 Chapter Structure and Types of Evidence ....................................................................... 10 14 15 16 5.2 Poverty, Equality, and Equity Implications of a 1.5°C Warmer World ...................................... 11 17 5.2.1 Future Impacts and Risks at Sub-regional to Sub-national Levels ................................... 11 18 5.2.2 Risks of a 1.5°C Warmer World ....................................................................................... 11 19 5.2.3 Avoided Impacts of 1.5°C versus 2°C Warming ............................................................... 12 20 5.2.4 Implications of Differential and Avoided Risks from 1.5°C Global Warming for Achieving 21 the SDGs ......................................................................................................................................... 13 22 23 24 5.3 Impacts of Adaptation on Sustainable Development .................................................................... 14 25 5.3.1 Synergies between Adaptation Response Options and Sustainable Development ........ 14 26 5.3.2 Trade-offs between Adaptation Response Options and Sustainable Development ....... 15 27 5.3.3 Sustainable Development Implications of Adaptation Pathways in a 1.5°C Warmer 28 World 16 29 30 31 5.4 Impacts of Mitigation on Sustainable Development ..................................................................... 17 32 5.4.1 Synergies between Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development .......................... 18 33 5.4.1.1 Accelerating efficiency in resource use .................................................................... 18 34 5.4.1.2 Behavioural options.................................................................................................. 18 35 5.4.1.3 Access to modern and reliable energy and fuel switch ........................................... 18 36 5.4.1.4 Cross-sector policy measures ................................................................................... 19 37 5.4.1.5 Land-based agriculture and forestry sector mitigation options .............................. 20 38 5.4.2 Trade-offs between Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development ........................ 20 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 5-2 Total pages: 92 First Order Draft Chapter 5 IPCC SR1.5 1 5.4.2.1 Accelerating efficiency in resource use .................................................................... 20 2 5.4.2.2 Access to modern and reliable energy and fuel switch ........................................... 20 3 5.4.2.3 Cross-sector policy measures ................................................................................... 21 4 5.4.2.4 Land based agriculture and forestry sector mitigation options ............................... 21 5 5.4.2.5 Temporal and spatial trade-offs and distributional impacts.................................... 22 6 5.4.3 Sustainable Development Implications of 1.5°C and 2°C Mitigation Pathways .............. 22 7 5.4.3.1 Air pollution and health............................................................................................ 23 8 5.4.3.2 Food security and hunger ......................................................................................... 23 9 5.4.3.3 Lack of energy access / energy poverty ................................................................... 23 10 5.4.3.4 Water security (energy-related) ............................................................................... 24 11 5.4.3.5 Biodiversity ............................................................................................................... 24 12 13 14 5.5 Development First: Implications for Reductions of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate 15 Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacities .................................................................................................... 26 16 5.5.1 Pursuing Development and Reaching Ambitious Emission Reductions .......................... 26 17 5.5.1.1 Sustainable development as a facilitator of mitigation ........................................... 26 18 5.5.1.2 Conditional synergies between sustainable development and emission reductions 19 27 20 5.5.2 Pursuing Sustainable Development, Reducing Vulnerabilities, and Enhancing Adaptive 21 Capacities........................................................................................................................................ 29 22 5.5.2.1 Sustainable development for transformative adaptation ....................................... 29 23 24 25 5.6 Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development Integration: Opportunities and 26 Challenges 31 27 5.6.1 Integrated Approaches toward Climate and Development ............................................ 31 28 5.6.2 Achieving Triple-win Outcomes ....................................................................................... 32 29 5.6.2.1 Enabling conditions and challenges ......................................................................... 32 30 5.6.2.2 Distributional and dynamic dimensions of enabling conditions and constraints .... 33 31 5.6.3 Governance to Strengthen Synergies for Transformation .............................................. 34 32 33 34 5.7 Climate-Resilient Development Pathways ..................................................................................... 35 35 5.7.1 Climate-resilient Development Pathways, Wellbeing, and Equity .................................. 35 36 5.7.2 Enabling Conditions for Climate-Resilient Development Pathways ................................ 36 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 5-3 Total pages: 92 First Order Draft Chapter 5 IPCC SR1.5 1 5.7.2.1 Social enabling conditions ........................................................................................ 37 2 5.7.2.2 Governance and policy foundations ........................................................................ 38 3 5.7.3 Evidence of Climate-Resilience Development Pathways: From Nation States to 4 Communities .................................................................................................................................. 39 5 5.7.3.1 Green economy pathways, green states, and implications for sustainable 6 development ............................................................................................................................... 39 7 Box 5.2: Successes and challenges of CRDPs in state-driven green economies ........................................ 40 8 5.7.3.2 Climate-resilient development planning through state-NGO-community alliances41 9 Box 5.3: The Republic of Vanuatu– Enabling Resilient Communities ...................................................... 41 10 5.7.3.3 Alternative and bottom-up development paths ...................................................... 42 11 Box 5.4: CRDPs - Transnational Movements and Community Action ..................................................... 42 12 5.7.4 Lessons from Case Studies on Climate-resilient Development Pathways ...................... 43 13 5.7.4.1 Social learning .......................................................................................................... 44 14 5.7.4.2 Equity, rights, and justice ......................................................................................... 44 15 5.7.4.3 Indicators, monitoring, and evaluation .................................................................... 44 16 17 18 5.8 Synthesis and Research Gaps ........................................................................................................