FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, JANUARY 11, 2001, 4:00 P.M. It’s the Economy Again! CLINTON NOSTALGIA SETS IN, BUSH REACTION MIXED Also Inside ... w Hillary's Favorability Rises. w Winners and Losers under Bush. w Powell a Visible Choice. w Clinton's Issue Report Card. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut, Director Carroll Doherty, Editor Kimberly Parker, Research Director Michael Dimock, Survey Director Nilanthi Samaranayake, Project Director Pew Research Center for The People & The Press 202/293-3126 http://www.people-press.org It’s the Economy Again! CLINTON NOSTALGIA SETS IN, BUSH REACTION MIXED As the country awaits the formal transfer of presidential power, Bill Clinton has never looked better to the American public, while his successor George W. Bush is receiving initial reviews that are more mixed, though still positive. The president leaves office with 61% of the public approving of the way he is handling the job, combined with a surprisingly lofty 64% favorability rating (up from 48% in May 2000). The favorability rating, a mixture of personal and performance evaluations, is all the more impressive because such judgments have never been Clinton’s strong suit. Unlike other recent presidents, Clinton’s ratings have often run below his job approval scores. As historians and scholars render their judgments of Clinton’s legacy, the public is Improved Opinion of the Clintons ... weighing in with a nuanced verdict. By a 60%- Aug May Jan 27% margin, people feel that, in the long run, 1998 2000 2001 Clinton’s accomplishments in office will Bill Clinton ... %%% Favorable 54 48 64 outweigh his failures, even though 67% think he Unfavorable 44 47 34 will be remembered for impeachment and the Don't know 2 5 2 100 100 100 scandals, not for what he achieved. At the same Hillary Clinton ... time, evaluations of Hillary Clinton are on the Favorable 63 49 60 Unfavorable 34 42 35 upswing as she leaves the White House to Don't know 3 9 5 become New York’s junior senator. 100 100 100 ... And Mixed Reviews for Bush Opinions of President-elect Bush are notably less effusive, which may be at least Bush Sr. Clinton Bush Jr. Explanation of 1989 1993 2001 partly attributable to the election’s contentious his policies ... %%% conclusion. A 50% plurality approves of the job Approve 65 62 50 Disapprove 28 24 36 he has done in explaining his policies and plans Don't know 7 14 14 for the future. This contrasts to 62% who 100 100 100 1989 and 1993 figures are from Gallup. expressed that view of Clinton in a Pew Research Center survey in January 1993, and His cabinet choices ... Approve 59 64 58 65% who approved of George Bush Sr.’s policy Disapprove 15 15 16 explanations in a Gallup Poll twelve years ago. Don't know 26 21 26 100 100 100 1989 figures are from ABC News; 1993 are from U.S. News & World Report. Partisan hostility explains Bush’s lower ratings as only 29% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic approve of the job the president-elect has done in communicating his plans. In contrast, Republicans and independents who lean to the GOP were far more positive toward Clinton in 1993, when 43% approved of his initial policy presentations. Bush gets somewhat higher grades for his cabinet selections (58% approval).1 While these ratings are lower than Clinton’s, they are comparable to his father’s and better than the ratings Ronald Reagan’s cabinet received in 1981. Further, the Pew survey, which was conducted among a national sample of 1,258 adults Jan. 3-7, found that relatively few people (21%) believe his cabinet picks and other high-level appointments are too conservative; half think they are about right ideologically. The selection of Colin Powell may have a lot to do with this, as 33% were able to identify the retired general as a member of the new cabinet — a much higher number than could recall the name of any Clinton nominee in 1993. By a 56% to 29% margin, Americans think it is a good thing that many of Bush’s top advisors worked in his father’s administration. In that regard only 12% think that Dick Cheney is playing too large a role in the new administration. Even at this early stage, 31% think Cheney will be a successful vice president — a somewhat higher number than think Bush will be a successful president. Flagging economic optimism may be Financial Pessimism on the Rise one of the first problems confronting the new administration. There has been a significant Jan Feb Jan Jan 1992 1995 1999 2001 increase in the number of Americans who Personal finances will ... %%%% expect to be worse off financially over the Improve 55 64 72 57 course of the year: 27% express that view now, Stay the same (Vol.) 16 17 14 12 Worsen 24 16 10 27 compared to about 10% in January 1999. In fact, Don't know 5 3 4 4 the economic expectations voiced in the current 100 100 100 100 survey are the least positive on this measure 1992 figures are from U.S. News & World Report. since 1992, when Clinton was campaigning for office on a promise to jump-start the economy. Similarly, public interest in stories about the economy and financial conditions is as high as it has been since 1994, when many people still believed the economy was in a recession. 1 The survey was fielded before Linda Chavez withdrew her name as Bush's nominee for Secretary of Labor. -2- Not surprisingly, the state of the economy has gained importance in the eyes of the public. More than eight-in-ten (81%) rate keeping the economy strong as the leading priority for the president and Congress. While partisan divisions persist in the wake of the election, Republicans, Democrats and independents agree that maintaining strong economic growth should be Washington’s first order of business. Partisan tensions are apparent in public perceptions of which groups will thrive and which ones will lose ground in the Bush years. Majorities think that business corporations, the military and Christian conservatives will gain in influence, while pluralities think feminists, poor people, environmentalists, and union leaders will wane in influence. Already, Bush himself is seen as tilting to the right; by 48%-37%, the public thinks the new president is listening more to the conservatives than the moderates in his party. Priorities for ‘01 Perhaps not surprisingly, given the public’s growing financial concerns, keeping the economy strong has overtaken education as the public’s leading policy priority. Improving education, which led the list of priorities last year, is now second. As Bush prepares to begin his Top Priorities for the Nation presidency, there are notable areas of bipartisan agreement, although vast All Rep Dem Ind Priorities ... %%%% differences continue to divide the parties. Keeping economy strong 81 78 84 81 Aside from the economy, Republicans, Improving educational system 78 76 81 76 Democrats and independents all rate Reducing crime 76 69 82 72 Securing Social Security 74 67 80 74 improving education, reducing crime, and Adding Medicare drug benefits 73 60 80 72 securing Social Security and Medicare very Securing Medicare 71 64 79 69 highly. In addition, a strong consensus has Regulating HMOs 66 54 77 60 emerged in favor of a middle-class tax cut, Reducing middle class taxes 66 63 65 67 Dealing with problems of poor 63 48 75 62 with better than six-in-ten in each group Protecting the environment 63 45 74 68 calling tax cuts a top priority. Providing insurance to uninsured 61 46 74 60 Improving the job situation 60 48 66 60 Paying off the national debt 54 49 55 58 But Republicans and Democrats are Working to reduce racial tensions 52 40 64 52 far apart on the importance of a wide range Dealing with moral breakdown 51 61 45 46 of issues, including protecting the Strengthening the military 48 63 45 41 environment, gun control, health care, Strengthening gun control laws 47 34 61 44 Developing missile defense 41 49 36 37 strengthening the military and improving Reforming campaign finance 37 30 40 42 the nation’s moral climate. Almost three- Dealing with global trade 37 42 38 32 -3- quarters of Democrats and nearly as many independents (68%) rate the environment as a top priority; less than half of Republicans (45%) agree. Democrats are also far more likely than Republicans to regard providing insurance for the uninsured and toughening gun control laws as major priorities. Conversely, Republicans attach greater importance to building up the military and dealing with the nation’s moral breakdown. Better than six-in-ten Republicans see those issues as leading priorities, compared to fewer than half of Democrats and independents. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to view missile defense as a top priority; still, only about half (49%) of Republicans see this as very important. There also is a gender gap over the nation’s priorities, although men and women alike place the economy and education at the top of the list. Women are far more likely to rate insuring the uninsured (68% vs. 53% of men), improving the job situation (65% vs. 53%) and helping the poor and needy (69% vs. 58%) as top priorities. Strengthening the armed forces ranks as more important for men than it does for women (53%-42%). GOP Narrows Issues Gap Republicans have made considerable The Party with Better Ideas headway over the past two years in cutting into the Democrats’ issues advantage.