FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES THE BALTIC REPUBLICS A Strategic Survey Erkki Nordberg National Defence College Helsinki 1994 Finnish Defence Studies is published under the auspices of the National Defence College, and the contributions reflect the fields of research and teaching of the College. Finnish Defence Studies will occasionally feature documentation on Finnish Security Policy. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily imply endorsement by the National Defence College. Editor: Kalevi Ruhala Editorial Assistant: Matti Hongisto Editorial Board: Chairman Prof. Mikko Viitasalo, National Defence College Dr. Pauli Järvenpää, Ministry of Defence Col. Antti Numminen, General Headquarters Dr., Lt.Col. (ret.) Pekka Visuri, Finnish Institute of International Affairs Dr. Matti Vuorio, Scientific Committee for National Defence Published by NATIONAL DEFENCE COLLEGE P.O. Box 266 FIN - 00171 Helsinki FINLAND FINNISH DEFENCE STUDIES 6 THE BALTIC REPUBLICS A Strategic Survey Erkki Nordberg National Defence College Helsinki 1992 ISBN 951-25-0709-9 ISSN 0788-5571 © Copyright 1994: National Defence College All rights reserved Painatuskeskus Oy Pasilan pikapaino Helsinki 1994 Preface Until the end of the First World War, the Baltic region was understood as a geographical area comprising the coastal strip of the Baltic Sea from the Gulf of Danzig to the Gulf of Finland. In the years between the two World Wars the concept became more political in nature: after Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania obtained their independence in 1918 the region gradually became understood as the geographical entity made up of these three republics. Although the Baltic region is geographically fairly homogeneous, each of the newly restored republics possesses unique geographical and strategic features. Even their military significance is different when measured against that of their neighbours. In order that these difference should be better understood, this study looks not only at the Baltic region as a whole but at the three states separately - their strategic factors, their potential for arranging their national defence and their strategic concepts, although these have not yetbeen approved by the respective parliaments. The northern part of what was once East Prussia, and now is the Königsberg/Kaliningrad administrative region, is geographically a part of the Baltic region. Housing as it does a large Russian military base, it is also of great strategic significance, not only to Lithuania but to Latvia and Estonia. For this reason it, too, is included in the survey. The materials for the research were collected during the years 1991- 1994. Besides the many published sources, the study also relies on oral and unpublished material gathered in numerous fact-finding trips to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Helsinki, 30 June 1994. Erkki Nordberg CONTENTS Preface....................................................................................................................... 3 Contents.................................................................................................................... 5 1 STRATEGIC COLONIES .................................................................................... 7 In Pursuit of Economic Gain ........................................................................ 7 Russian Troop Concentrations .....................................................................8 The Sea Fortress of Peter the Great ..............................................................9 NationalGarrisons .......................................................................................10 Basesof Occupation .................................................................................... 12 2 DEFENCE LINES AND ATTACK ARROWS ............................................. 15 FightingTrenches ........................................................................................ 15 Defence Positions ........................................................................................ 16 AttackArrows ............................................................................................. 19 TankColumns ............................................................................................. 20 Axes of Advance and Intrinsic Value ....................................................... 23 SOVIET OCCUPATION ....................................................................................25 The Forest Brethren ..................................................................................... 25 NationalDivisions ....................................................................................... 26. AirDefence Zone ....................................................................................... 27 Strategic Infrastructure .............................................................................- 29 Offensive Deployment ............................................................................... 30 Russian Strategic Interests ......................................................................... 31 FetteredLands ............................................................................................. 32 ESTONIA: VIRGIN MARY'S LAND .............................................................. 35 Traffic Routes to be Repaired ..................................... ............................... 37 Widened Territorial Waters ....................................................................... 39 EthnicProblems ........................................................................................... 41 Problematic Northeastern Corner .............................. ............................... 42 Total Territorial Defence Concept ............................................................ 44 Citizens' Army ............................................................................................. 46 Sentries of Security ...................................................................................... 48 Whose Armed Forces? ................................................................................ 49 Self-Defence Capability .............................................................................. 50 LongMarch .................................................................................................. 52 LATVIA: LAND OF AMBER ............................................ ............................... 54 Thoroughfares.............................................................. ............................... 56 Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea ................................... ............................... 57 ABare Majority ........................................................................................... 59 Paved Road from I'skov ............................................................................. 61 In Case of Fifth Columns ............................................................................ 63 Parliament's Defence Forces ...................................................................... 64 DifficultBeginning ...................................................................................... 65 Unique Defence Problems ......................................................................... 67 6 LITHUANIA: LAND OF THE CROSS AND HOLY POSTS ....................... 69 Industrialized Farmland ............................................................................ 70 TransitRoutes .............................................................................................. 71 KurischesHaff ............................................................................................. 72 Ethnically Homogeneous ........................................................................... 73 TwoDirections ............................................................................................ 74 CollectiveSecurity ...................................................................................... 75 Professional Stand-by Brigade .................................................................. 75 PartisanDefence .......................................................................................... 79 SpecialCase .................................................................................................. 80 7 KALININGRAD GARRISON ......................................................................... 82 Undulating Lowlands ................................................................................ 82 Oiland Amber ............................................................................................. 84 AttackColumns ........................................................................................... 85 Surveillance and Supply Base ................................................................... 86 Splendid Future Behind ............................................................................. 87 8 THREE SCENARIOS ........................................................................................ 89 Invasionof Poland ...................................................................................... 89 NATOInfiltration ....................................................................................... 90 LongArm ..................................................................................................... 91 Dreadand Paranoia .................................................................................... 92 InTwo Days ................................................................................................