THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERISTY Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles A Technology Warning Assessment Syed Azeem 2/29/2012 This report presents a technology warning assessment based on National Academies’ methodology. The particular technology area analyzed relates to fully autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (AUAVs) from the perspective of the United States government with the objective to assess AUAV technology with the goal of strongly enabling, promoting and increasing economic growth. Table of Contents Focus ............................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 History..................................................................................................................................... 5 UAVs Come to the Lime Light in Contemporary Times ....................................................... 5 Civilian Use of UAVs is Gaining Momentum ........................................................................ 6 The Road to Autonomy ............................................................................................................. 10 State of the Art ...................................................................................................................... 10 Alternative Energy and Extreme Endurance ......................................................................... 13 Micro UAVs.......................................................................................................................... 14 Identify: Evolving Technologies................................................................................................... 15 Platform Technologies .............................................................................................................. 15 Alternative Energy, Lightweight and Efficient Power Supplies: .......................................... 15 Low-Observable or Stealth Technology: .............................................................................. 19 Sensor Technologies ................................................................................................................. 20 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR): ......................................................................................... 21 Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR): ............................................................................... 22 On-board Intelligence ............................................................................................................... 23 Artificial intelligence: ........................................................................................................... 23 Communications bandwidth: ................................................................................................ 28 Identify: Observables .................................................................................................................... 29 Technology Warning Assessment ................................................................................................. 31 Assess: Accessibility ..................................................................................................................... 31 Assess: Maturity............................................................................................................................ 32 2 Assess: Consequence .................................................................................................................... 32 Prioritize & Task ........................................................................................................................... 33 Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 36 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 37 3 Focus The scope of this research paper is focused on answering the following question: What is the current state of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (AUAVs) and ongoing developments in the R&D that is of interest in understanding the state of this particular technology? Introduction An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), also sometimes known as a unmanned aerial system (UAS), refers specifically to an aircraft, or more generally a flying machine, being flown without a human pilot on-board actively directing and piloting. Control functions are found either on- board, in the form of sophisticated computer systems, or remotely controlled by human pilots on the ground [6], or a combination of both. The closely related term, unmanned combat aerial system (UCAS) refers to the variety of such unmanned aircraft with strike fighter size platform and capabilities. UAVs come in many different configurations akin to traditional aircraft. These configurations may include: fixed-wing, rotary-wing or rotorcraft, helicopters, VTOL vehicles, or short take-off and landing (STOL) [6]. However, UAV form factors are not necessarily limited by the configurations offered by traditional aircraft. Smaller form factors UAVs are called Miniature UAVs ─ some of which can be launched by catapault, or even by hand. Similarly, advanced UAVs may also borrow their form and function from creatures such as birds or flying insects. Another distinct category of unmanned systems is airships. They offer unparalleled endurance over fixed wing or rotary configurations. Many of the models can stay aloft for days or even months. Applications include surveillance, monitoring and communications relay [6]. The focus of our assessment is to provide a thorough background on the history of unmanned aircraft, current state-of-the-art of various UAVs, and discussing the trend towards increased autonomy. The perspective of this report is that of the United States government with the objective to assess autonomous UAV technology with the goal of strongly enabling, promoting and increasing economic growth. For example, this technology has the promise to create new and innovative business models and increased exports (in terms of both technology goods and intellectual property). 4 History The first modern UAV, in its most rudimentary modern form, was the “Kettering Bug”. It was developed during World War I and designed to be a “flying bomb” for the U.S. Army. However, these “small, cheap, crudely built biplanes” were mired with crashes and were highly unreliable [7].. The Kettering Bug never saw operational light of day. During World War II, the Nazis developed a simple unmanned aircraft known as the V-1 “Buzzbomb” and used to it to conduct 8892 one-way bombing missions in the UK [7]. The effects were devastating and resulted in massive damages with 6,200 fatalities and 18,000 casualties [7]. Early-form UAVs, such as the V-1 and the Kettering Bug, were essentially one-way bombing machines in the form of an unmanned aircraft. They were similar in this most basic principle compared to modern cruise missiles, with the exception of an aircraft configuration in terms of fixed wingspan. Further substantial development of UAVs did not catch momentum until the Vietnam War. During 1964 and 1972, the “Lightning Bug” and “Buffalo Hunter” UAVs flew more than 3,400 sorties conducting reconnaissance, surveillance and PSYOPs missions and suffered an attrition rate of only 10% [7]. During the same period, more than 5,000 U.S. service members lost their lives in downed aircraft and 90% of American POWs were pilots or crewmen who had been captured [7]. “These UAVs returned from missions deep within enemy territory at a fraction of the cost of manned reconnaissance aircraft, and without the threat to American personnel” [7]. U.S. R&D efforts continued meagerly during the 1980’s and with increased momentum during the 1990’s. However, it was not until after September 11, 2001 attacks on U.S. soil that UAVs would become a key weapon in combating adversaries. UAVs Come to the Lime Light in Contemporary Times The benefits of using UAVs in military campaigns were never abundantly clearer than in the past post-9/11 decade. Across theaters in Afghanistan and Iraq, the RQ-4 Global Hawk, developed by Northrop Grumman, performed admirably and provided the U.S. and its allies a tremendous advantage over its adversaries by conducting intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions [7]. The UAS is considered a high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) aircraft. Flying at altitudes up to 65,000 feet (roughly twice as high as commercial airliners and above inclement weather and prevailing winds) and being able to cruise for up to 35 hours, the Global Hawk provides joint war-fighting commanders near-real-time, high-resolution 5 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) images in terms of both wide-area and spot imagery [7]. For example, in Iraq, it aided U.S. forces in accelerating defeat to Iraqi forces – taking credit for identifying over half of all critical air defense targets and 38% of Iraqi armored forces. The Global Hawk is able to autonomously take off, fly and surveil a region of interest (pre-programmed by operators), and land [7]. It can image an area the size of the state of Illinois in just one mission [8]. During these conflicts, General Atomics’ RQ-1 Predator UAV proved invaluable due to its multi-faceted capabilities in conducting combat