STUDY Requested by the TRAN committee Transport infrastructure in low-density and depopulating areas Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies Directorate-General for Internal Policies EN 3 PE 652.227 - February 2021 RESEARCH FOR TRAN COMMITTEE Transport infrastructure in low- density and depopulating areas Abstract This study investigates the key challenges and trends concerning the provision of transport policies and infrastructure in low- density and depopulating areas. It also provides a comprehensive assessment of relevant transport policies and projects implemented in these areas. Finally, it provides policymakers with an array of policy recommendations aimed at overcoming the identified challenges and gaps. This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Transport and Tourism. AUTHORS VVA: Luca BISASCHI, Francesco ROMANO, Malin CARLBERG, Jessica CARNEIRO, Davide CECCANTI, and Liviu CALOFIR TEPR: Ian SKINNER Research manager: Balazs MELLAR, Ariane DEBYSER, Davide PERNICE Project, publication and communication assistance: Mariana Václavová, Kinga OSTAŃSKA Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, European Parliament LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER To contact the Policy Department or to subscribe to updates on our work for the Transport and Tourism Committee please write to: [email protected] Manuscript completed in February 2021 © European Union, 2021 This document is available on the internet in summary with option to download the full text at: https://bit.ly/39AIpJV This document is available on the internet at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_STU(2021)652227 Further information on research for TRAN by the Policy Department is available at: https://research4committees.blog/TRAN/ Follow us on Twitter: @PolicyTRAN Please use the following reference to cite this study: Bisaschi, Romano et al, 2021, Research for TRAN Committee – Transport infrastructure in low-density and depopulating areas, European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, Brussels Please use the following reference for in-text citations: Bisaschi, Romano et al (2021) DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy © Cover image used under the licence from Adobe Stock. Transport infrastructure in low-density and depopulating areas CONTENTS LIST OF BOXES 6 LIST OF FIGURES 6 LIST OF TABLES 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 INTRODUCTION 12 Objectives of the study 12 Scope of the study 13 LOW-DENSITY AND DEPOPULATING AREAS 15 Introduction and caveats 15 Delineation of low-density and depopulating areas 15 2.1.1. Demography of low-density ad depopulating areas 18 Geographical specificities with possible negative impacts on demographic trends 21 2.1.1. Interplay between regions with geographical specificities 29 Remote and rural areas 29 The territorial dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic effects 32 LOW-DENSITY AND DEPOPULATING AREAS: KEY FEATURES 35 Towards a multidimensional assessment of low-density and depopulating areas: different features and related impacts 36 3.1.1. The case for a multidimensional approach: defining the indicators and selecting the sample 36 3.1.2. Presenting the multidimensional assessment: analysis of the radar charts 41 PROVIDING TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES IN LOW-DENSITY AND DEPOPULATING AREAS: RECENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES 43 The current and future EU strategic framework for transport 43 4.1.1. The current EU strategic policy framework 43 4.1.2. Developments since the White Paper 45 4.1.3. The future strategic policy framework for transport in the EU 46 Transport issues faced by low-density and depopulating areas 47 4.1.4. Transport issues in rural and mountainous areas 47 4.1.5. Transport issues in peripheral and remote areas 47 4.1.6. Other issues related to the provision of transport infrastructure 48 Addressing the transport issues of low-density and depopulating areas 48 4.1.7. The role of transport infrastructure 48 3 IPOL | Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies 4.1.8. The importance of the digitalisation of transport for low-density and depopulating areas 49 4.1.9. The role of different mobility options in low-density and depopulating areas 50 4.1.10. The importance of a strategic approach to the provision of transport in low- density and depopulating areas 51 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT EU AND NATIONAL FUNDING AND POLICIES FOR TRANSPORT IN SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS 53 Assessment of relevant EU policies 53 5.1.1. EU support for the development of transport 53 5.1.2. EU cohesion funds and the development of transport 55 5.1.3. Other EU legislation covering relevant transport infrastructure 56 Assessment of EU Regional Policy Programmes 56 5.1.4. Selecting the sample 57 5.1.5. Mapping tool 63 5.1.6. Key findings from the mapping tool 64 5.1.7. Conclusions 71 Overview of Relevant National Policies 72 5.1.8. France: “The territories and the rural” 72 5.1.9. Italy: Inner Areas Strategy 74 5.1.10. Spain: Plan to reactivate the depopulated areas (Plan de Reactivación de las zonas despobladas) 76 Efficiency and Equity Considerations 78 5.1.11. Equity vs efficiency 78 5.1.12. Societal groups in low-density areas affected by unjust transport policies 79 5.1.13. The inclusion of the equity criteria in European and national policies on transport 80 5.1.14. European and national policy objectives and the needs of low-density and depopulating areas 80 CASE STUDIES 83 Overview of the selected regions 83 Key transport infrastructures 84 Challenges and issues 85 Lessons learnt 86 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 89 Recommendations addressed at EU level 89 Recommendations addressed at the level of the EU and the Member States 90 Recommendations to public authorities and service operators 92 4 Transport infrastructure in low-density and depopulating areas ANNEX 1: BIBLIOGRAPHY AND DATABASES 93 ANNEX 2: OVERVIEW OF THE EU REGIONAL PROGRAMMES ANALYSED 97 ANNEX 3: STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION 106 ANNEX 4: WORKSHOP AGENDA 107 ANNEX 5: MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH 108 ANNEX 6: CASES STUDIES 124 5 IPOL | Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies LIST OF BOXES Box 1: Economic activities in regions facing demographic decline 20 Box 2: Cost-Benefit Analysis 79 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Low-population density regions in Europe by NUTS3 (2018) 16 Figure 2: Crude rate of natural change by NUTS3 regions in 2018 (left), and crude rate of net migration by NUTS3 regions in 2018 (right) 19 Figure 3: Border regions in EU28 and EFTA by NUTS3 22 Figure 4: Mountain regions in EU28 and EFTA by NUTS3 23 Figure 5: Island regions in EU28 by NUTS3 26 Figure 6: European outermost regions 27 Figure 7: Urban-rural typology by NUTS3 30 Figure 8: Urban-rural typology including remoteness by NUTS3 31 Figure 9: Selected Nuts 2 Regions 38 Figure 10: Change in accessibility of the chosen policy option compared to no policy action in 2030 44 Figure 11: Number of Programmes per type of region (Geographical Feature) 62 Figure 12: Number of Programmes per type of region (Socio-economic context) 63 Figure 13: Frequency of Thematic Objectives (number) 64 Figure 14: Sampled programmes – total budget and TOs Budget 65 Figure 15: Frequency of Investment Priorities (IPs) (number) 65 Figure 16: Distribution of IPs amongst types of regions (number of programmes) 66 Figure 17: Distribution of IPs per level of economic development (Number of Programmes) 67 Figure 18: Types of measure per Thematic Objectives 68 Figure 19: Type of transport project (number) 68 Figure 20: Total budget per type of transport project 69 Figure 21: Average budget per type of transport project 69 Figure 22: Types of transport projects per category of region (geography) 70 Figure 23: Types of projects per level of economic development 71 Figure 24: Diagonal void 72 Figure 25: Italian Inner Areas according to SNAI (National Strategy for Inner Areas) classification 75 Figure 26: España vacía (Empty Spain) 2019 77 6 Transport infrastructure in low-density and depopulating areas Figure 27: High-speed and long-distance lines in Spain 126 Figure 28: Annual traffic evaluation of the Badajoz Airport 128 Figure 29: Lower Danube Area 133 Figure 30: Eurovelo 6 Route 134 Figure 31: Key railway connections between Lower Danube and Central or Western Europe 136 Figure 32: Swedish division at NUTS2 143 Figure 33: Barents Region 147 Figure 34: Valle d’Aosta - Physical Map (altitude in metres) 151 Figure 35: Map of road network (Valle d’Aosta) 152 Figure 36: Map of EU Strategy for the Alpine Region 154 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Population change in NUTS3 regions of Pyrenees area (2014-2019) 25 Table 2: Distance of outermost regions from national capital 28 Table 3: Distribution of EU28 NUTS3 regions in categories of territories 29 Table 4: Key features of low density and depopulating areas 35 Table 5: Key variables 37 Table 6: Overview of the sample 40 Table 7: Shortlisted Sample 59 Table 8: Key features to be assessed in the mapping tool 63 Table 9: Overview of regional programmes 97 Table 10: Geographical and demographical level relevance of existing classification 109 Table 11: Normalisation of indicators 113 Figure 12: Valle d'Aosta/Vallée d'Aoste (ITC2) 114 Figure 13: Corsica (FRM0) 114 Figure 14: