XV European Conference Immigration Policy and Crime Francesco Fasani, Ludovica Gazzè, Paolo Pinotti and Marco Tonello Immigration policy and crime* Paolo Pinotti Francesco Fasani Bocconi University IAE‐CSIC & Barcelona GSE Ludovica Gazzè Marco Tonello MIT Bank of Italy Report prepared for the XV European Conference of the Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti “Legal and Illegal Careers” Caserta June 22, 2013 * Josh Angrist provided invaluable mentoring, critical insight and enthusiastic support. We thank Alessandra Camporota, Angelo Caruso, Massimo Fasciani, Gemma De Filippo, Vincenzo Gattagrisi, Emanuele Maugeri, Antonella Misiani and Salvatore Rametta of the Italian Ministry of Interior for disclosing the data on residence permits and crime, and Giancarlo Blangiardo and Ilaria Cingottini for providing part of the data used in Chapters 3 and 4. We also thank Dimitrios Bermperoglou, Giammarco Cezza and Giulia Tagliaferri for skilful research assistance. The views expressed in this work by Marco Tonello are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Bank of Italy. 1 2 Table of contents Immigration policy and crime .................................................................................................... 1 Table of contents ........................................................................................................................... 3 List of figures ................................................................................................................................. 5 List of tables .................................................................................................................................. 7 List of Appendix Table ................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 1 ‐ Migration Policy, Legal status and Crime: Perceptions and Some Stylized Facts .... 16 1.1. Attitudes toward immigrants .......................................................................................... 16 1.2. Legal and illegal immigration: perceptions vs. Reality .................................................... 22 1.3. Immigrants’ involvement in criminal activity: preliminary evidence .............................. 26 1.4. Migration policy and illegal migration ............................................................................ 30 1.1. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 31 Chapter 2 ‐ Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................ 33 2.1. The individual problem ................................................................................................... 33 2.2. Migration policy and the selection of immigrants .......................................................... 35 2.2.1. Restrictions to legal migration ................................................................................ 35 2.2.2. Enforcement of migration restrictions .................................................................... 35 2.3. Legal status and criminal activity .................................................................................... 36 2.4. Identification ................................................................................................................... 37 Chapter 3 – Migration Policy and Crime in Italy ......................................................................... 40 3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 40 3.2. Migration in Italy ............................................................................................................. 40 3.3. Migration policy in Italy: Legislative framework and actual practices ............................ 41 3.3.1. The quota system .................................................................................................... 42 3.3.1.1. The theory… .................................................................................................... 42 3.3.1.2. … and the practice ........................................................................................... 43 3.3.1.3. Quotas and labor demand ............................................................................... 44 3.3.2. Amnesties ................................................................................................................ 47 3.3.3. Migration policy enforcement ................................................................................ 50 3.4. Migration and crime in Italy ............................................................................................ 53 3.4.1. Italian and immigrants: from criminal charges to prison ........................................ 53 3.4.2. Areas of origin ......................................................................................................... 56 3.4.3. Criminal offences ..................................................................................................... 57 3.4.4. The role of legal status ............................................................................................ 59 3.4.5. Immigrants as victims of crime ............................................................................... 59 3 3.5. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 60 3.6. Tables .............................................................................................................................. 61 3.7. Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 66 A1. Italian legislation on migration .................................................................................... 66 A2. The ISMU survey.......................................................................................................... 67 Chapter 4 – Legal Status and Crime in Italian Cities: Evidence from Policy Experiments ........... 69 4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 69 4.2. Does immigrants’ crime fall after an amnesty? .............................................................. 69 4.2.1. Evidence from repeated amnesty programs ............................................................... 70 4.2.1.1. Empirical strategy ................................................................................................ 71 4.2.1.2. Data and descriptive statistics............................................................................. 74 4.2.1.3. Results ................................................................................................................. 75 4.2.2. Evidence from the largest Italian amnesty .................................................................. 77 4.2.2.1. Empirical strategy and identification issues ........................................................ 77 4.2.2.2. Descriptive statistics ............................................................................................ 79 4.2.2.3. Results ................................................................................................................. 79 4.3. The 2007 “click day” and immigrants’ crime .................................................................. 81 4.3.1. Institutional setting: the 2007 “click‐day”............................................................... 81 4.3.2. Empirical strategy .................................................................................................... 86 4.3.3. Descriptive statistics ................................................................................................ 88 4.3.4. Results ..................................................................................................................... 90 4.4. Concluding remarks ......................................................................................................... 92 4.4.1. Empirical findings from an aggregate analysis ........................................................ 92 4.4.2. Discussion ................................................................................................................ 93 4.5. Insights from an individual‐level analysis .................................................................... 95 4.6. Tables .............................................................................................................................. 97 4.7. Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 108 A. Appendix ‐ The 2007 “click‐day”: Further robustness checks ....................................... 108 B. Data appendix ............................................................................................................... 109 a. Criminal charges of foreign born citizens .................................................................. 109 b. Investigation System Database (ISD) ......................................................................... 109 C. Appendix tables ............................................................................................................. 112 Chapter