ISSN 1725-3209 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 145 | April 2013 Member States’ Energy Dependence: An Indicator-Based Assessment Economic and Financial Aff airs Occasional Papers are written by the Staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The “Papers” are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by the staff and cover a wide spectrum of subjects. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official views of the European Commission. Comments and enquiries should be addressed to: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Publications B-1049 Brussels Belgium E-mail: mailto:[email protected] Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from the website ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications A great deal of additional information is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (ec.europa.eu ) KC-AH-13-145-EN-N ISBN 978-92-79-28559-2 doi: 10.2765/41957 © European Union, 2013 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Member States' Energy Dependence: An Indicator-Based Assessment EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 145 ABBREVIATIONS COUNTRIES AT Austria BE Belgium BG Bulgaria CY Cyprus CZ Czech Republic CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DE Germany DK Denmark EE Estonia EL Greece ES Spain FI Finland FR France HU Hungary IE Ireland IT Italy LT Lithuania LU Luxembourg LV Latvia MT Malta NL Netherlands NO Norway PL Poland PT Portugal RO Romania RU Russia SE Sweden SI Slovenia SK Slovakia TR Turkey UA Ukraine UK United Kingdom US United States OTHERS AAU Assigned Amount Units bn Billion CA Current account CER Commission for Energy Regulation CHP Combined heat and power DG ENER Directorate-General for Energy DSO Distribution system operator EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EDI Energy dependence indicators EEPR European Energy Programme for Recovery EC European Commission EEA European Economic Area ERGEG European Regulators' Group for Gas and Electricity ESO Electricity system operator ii ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU European Union EUR Euro Euratom European Atomic Energy Community FEC Final energy consumption GDP Gross domestic product GIC Gross inland consumption GIS Green Investment Scheme GHG Greenhouse gas GME Gestore Mercati Elettrici GVA Gross value added GWh Gigawatt hour HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman index HICP Harmonized index of consumer prices IEA International Energy Agency ILUC Indirect land use change ITO Independent transmission system operator JRC Joint Research Center LNG Liquefied natural gas LPG Liquefied petroleum gas LTC Long-term gas contract LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry kcal Kilocalories kg Kilogram km Kilometre ktoe Kilo tonnes of oil equivalent kV Kilo volt kWh Kilowatt hour MS Member State Mt Million tonnes Mtoe Million tonnes of oil equivalent MW Megawatt MWe Megawatt electrical NEEAP National Energy Efficiency Action Plan NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan NTC Net transfer capacity OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PJ Petajoule PPS Purchasing power standard p.p. Percentage points PSO Public sector obligation PV Photovoltaic REFIT Renewable energy feed-in tariff RES Renewable energy sources SEAI Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland SEM Single electricity market tCO2-eq Tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent TSO Transmission system operator TJ Terajoule tU Tonnes uranium TLT Lithuanian litai TWh Terawatt hour iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs under the direction of Marco Buti, Director-General, Servaas Deroose, Deputy Director-General, and Anne Bucher, Director of the Directorate for Structural Reforms and Competitiveness. Nathalie Darnaut (Head of Unit, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs) coordinated and supervised the production of the report. The main contributors were Joan Canton, Mirco Tomasi, Paul Arnoldus, Jerzy Pienkowski, Nathalie Darnaut, Emmanuelle Maincent, Andras Rezessy, Magdalena Spooner and Arthika Sripathy. Statistical support was provided by Andras Rezessy and Vittorio Gargaro. George Alexakis and Vittorio Gargaro were responsible for the lay-out of the report. Comments and suggestions by colleagues in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and the Directorate-General for Energy as well as by members of the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) Working Group on Energy and Climate Change are gratefully acknowledged. Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent to: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Unit B4: Economic Analysis of Energy, Transport, Climate Change and Cohesion Policies European Commission BE-1049 Brussels or by e-mail to [email protected] The cut-off date for this report was 30 November 2012. iv CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Part I: 3 1. Energy dependence: Concept and relevance 5 2. Literature review 7 3. Member States' performance in terms of security of energy supply 11 3.1. Energy security and its indicators 11 3.2. Oil 13 3.3. Gas 14 3.4. Solid fuels 18 3.5. Nuclear energy 18 3.6. Renewable energy 21 3.7. Electricity 23 3.8. Aggregated ranking of Member States for security of energy supply 26 4. Member States' performance in terms of energy and carbon intensity 29 4.1. Energy intensity 31 4.2. Carbon intensity 35 4.3. Aggregated ranking of Member States for energy and carbon intensity 36 5. member States' performance in terms of the contribution of energy products to trade 39 5.1. Net energy trade balance 42 5.2. Factors underlying the net energy trade balance 44 5.3. Overall ranking of Member States as regards the external dimesion of energy dependency 45 6. Conclusions 49 7. Recommendations 51 A.1. Definition of indicators used in the EDI 53 A1.1. Security of Energy Supply 53 A1.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity of the Economy 55 A1.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade Balance 59 A.2. Composite Indicator to assess Member States 63 A.3. Energy dependence indicators for 2006 and 2010 67 References 75 Part II: Individual Country Files 79 Introduction to the Country Fiches 81 1. Bulgaria 83 1.1. Security of Energy Supply 83 1.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 88 1.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 91 1.4. References 93 2. Czech Republic 95 2.1. Security of Energy Supply 95 v 2.2. Secondary Energy Sources 99 2.3. Energy and Carbon Intensity 100 2.4. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 103 2.5. References 104 3. Estonia 107 3.1. Security of Energy Supply 107 3.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 111 3.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 115 3.4. References 116 4. Greece 117 4.1. Security of Energy Supply 117 4.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 123 4.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 125 4.4. References 126 5. Ireland 127 5.1. Security of Energy Supply 127 5.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 131 5.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 134 5.4. References 135 6. Italy 137 6.1. Security of energy supply 137 6.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 142 6.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 145 6.4. References 146 7. Cyprus 147 7.1. Security of Energy Supply 147 7.2. Energy and Carbon intensity 150 7.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 154 7.4. References 155 8. Latvia 157 8.1. Security of Energy supply 157 8.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 161 8.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 164 8.4. References 165 9. Lithuania 167 9.1. Security of energy supply 167 9.2. Energy and Carbon intensity 172 9.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 175 9.4. References 176 10. Luxembourg 177 10.1. Security of Energy Supply 177 10.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 180 10.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 184 10.4. References 185 11. Hungary 187 11.1. Security of Energy Supply 187 11.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 191 11.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 194 vi 11.4. References 195 12. Malta 197 12.1. Security of Energy Supply 197 12.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 200 12.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 203 12.4. References 203 13. Poland 205 13.1. Security of energy supply 205 13.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 210 13.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 213 13.4. References 214 14. Portugal 215 14.1. Security of Energy Supply 215 14.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 219 14.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 222 14.4. References 223 15. Romania 225 15.1. Security of Energy Supply 225 15.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 230 15.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 232 15.4. References 233 16. Slovenia 235 16.1. Security of Energy Supply 235 16.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 239 16.3. Contribution of Energy Products to Trade 242 16.4. References 243 17. Slovakia 245 17.1. Security of energy supply 245 17.2. Energy and Carbon Intensity 250 17.3. Contribution of energy products to trade 254 17.4. References 255 LIST OF TABLES I.3.1. Energy dependence indicators related to the security of energy supply dimension 12 I.3.2. Electricity mix in the EU 24 I.4.1. Energy dependence indicators related to the energy and carbon intensity dimension 31 I.4.2.