OFF-HIGHWAY AND PUBLIC-USE GASOLINE CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION MODELS USED IN THE FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION Final Report for the 2014 Model Revisions and Recalibrations Publication Number – FHWA-PL-17-012 June 2015 Notice This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the United State Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade manufacturers’ names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the objective of the document. Quality Assurance Statement The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provided highway-quality information to serve Government, industry and the public in a manner that promotes public understanding. Standards and policies are used to ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility and integrity of its information. FHEA periodically reviews quality issues and adjusts its programs and processes to ensure continuous quality improvement. Contents LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... xi ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................... xiii 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................1 1.1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................1 1.2 2008 MODEL UPDATES ...............................................................................................2 1.3 CURRENT STUDY ........................................................................................................2 1.4 REPORT ORGANIZATIONS ........................................................................................3 2. CURRENT FHWA MODELS – THE STATUS QUO ............................................................5 2.1 OVERVIEW OF THE MOTOR FUEL ESTIMATION MODELS ...............................5 2.2 OFF-HIGHWAY GASOLINE CONSUMPTION MODELS ........................................6 2.2.1 Aviation ...............................................................................................................7 2.2.2 Recreational Boating ...........................................................................................8 2.2.3 Agricultural Sector ..............................................................................................9 2.2.4 Industrial/Commercial .......................................................................................15 2.2.5 Construction ......................................................................................................16 2.2.6 Public Uses ........................................................................................................17 2.2.7 Off-road Recreational Vehicles .........................................................................20 3. CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FOR VIUS-BASED MODEL UPDATES ......................25 3.1 OUTDATED DATA AND PARAMETERS IN CURRENT MODELS ......................25 3.1.1 Concerns with VIUS Data .................................................................................25 3.1.2 Obsolete Factors/Parameters in Current FHWA Models ..................................25 3.1.3 Issues Associated with Off-road Recreational Vehicle Models ........................27 3.2 EVALUATION OF EPA NONROAD MODEL ESTIMATES ...................................27 3.2.1 Overview of EPA NONROAD Model ..............................................................27 3.2.2 Equipment Coverages in EPA MOVES2014/NONROAD2008 .......................30 3.2.3 A Brief Overview of the Fuel Consumption Estimation Process in NONROAD .......................................................................................................35 3.2.4 Summary of EPA NONROAD Gasoline Consumption Estimates by State .....36 3.3 EXPLORING POTENTIAL USE OF POLK VEHICLE REGISTRATION DATA ............................................................................................................................43 3.3.1 Overview of Polk Data ......................................................................................43 3.3.2 Potentially Useful VIUS-like Information in Polk Data ...................................43 3.3.3 Evaluation of TIP Data for Potential Use in the FHWA Motor Fuel Program .............................................................................................................45 4. UPDATED AVIATION GASOLINE USE MODEL ............................................................57 4.1 CHALLENGES IN THE CURRENT AVIATION MODEL .......................................57 4.2 DATA SOURCE ...........................................................................................................57 v 4.3 ESTIMATION METHOD ............................................................................................57 4.3.1 States with EIA Reported Volume ....................................................................57 4.3.2 States Where the Volumes Are Missing/Withheld from EIA Reporting ..........58 4.4 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................59 5. REVISED RECREATIONAL BOATING GASOLINE USE MODEL ................................61 5.1 BACKGROUND ...........................................................................................................61 5.2 DATA SOURCE ...........................................................................................................61 5.3 ESTIMATION METHOD ............................................................................................62 5.3.1 Gasoline-Powered Boat Population ...................................................................62 5.3.2 Hours of Boat Engine Use .................................................................................62 5.3.3 Fuel Efficiency of Recreational Boats ...............................................................63 5.3.4 Total Gasoline Consumption by Recreational Boats ........................................64 5.4 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................64 6. REVISED METHOD FOR ESTIMATING GASOLINE CONSUMPTION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR .................................................................................................69 6.1 DATA SOURCE ...........................................................................................................69 6.2 ESTIMATION METHOD ............................................................................................69 6.2.1 Total Fuel Expenditures and Shares of Gasoline Expenditure ..........................69 6.2.2 Gasoline Expenditures by State in Analysis Year .............................................70 6.2.3 Gasoline Consumption Estimates by State ........................................................72 6.2.4 Estimating Non-Highway Gasoline Consumption by State ..............................72 6.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................72 7. NEW METHODS FOR ESTIMATING GASOLINE CONSUMPTION IN INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL, AND CONSTRUCTION SECTORS ..............................75 7.1 CONSIDERATION OF SUPPLEMENTING VIUS WITH VMT DATA ...................75 7.1.1 Data Sources And General Method ...................................................................75 7.2 CONSTRUCTION ........................................................................................................76 7.3 INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL ...................................................................................78 8. UPDATES ON PUBLIC USE MODELS ..............................................................................81 8.1 FEDERAL USE OF GASOLINE MODELS ................................................................81 8.1.1 Data Source .......................................................................................................81 8.1.2 Estimation Method ............................................................................................81 8.2 GASOLINE CONSUMPTION BY SCM GOVERNMENTS ......................................82 8.2.1 Data Source for A New SCM Approach ...........................................................82 8.2.2 The Experimental SCM Estimation Method .....................................................83 8.3 RESULTS FROM PUBLIC USE MODELS ................................................................84 9. INTEGRATING THE ESTIMATION MODEL FOR GASOLINE CONSUMPTION BY OFF-ROAD RECREATIONAL VEHICLES .................................................................89 9.1 Data update for motorcycle and atv ..............................................................................89 9.1.1 Motorcycle .........................................................................................................89 vi 9.1.2 ATV ...................................................................................................................89 9.2 DATA UPDATE