Land Use Report St. Louis County Comprehensive Land Use Plan St. Louis County, Minnesota Prepared by: E NGINEERS ■■■■■P'I'"' ' ,,~F'JIIII■ , APPLIED PLANNER S i T. j ECOLOGICAL DE S IGNERS Consulting Group, Inc. =~i.illJi~.11Jil SERVICES Date: October 24, 2018 SRF No. 10360 Comprehensive Land Use Plan Land Use Report CONTENTS Introduction and Terminology ........................................................................................................................ 5 Demographics .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Education (Entire County) ............................................................................................................................. 10 Health Indicators ............................................................................................................................................. 12 Housing Characteristics .................................................................................................................................. 14 Economic Characteristics ............................................................................................................................... 17 Infrastructure/Utilities .................................................................................................................................... 25 Emergency Services ......................................................................................................................................... 25 Recreation & Tourism ..................................................................................................................................... 29 Cultural and Historical Resources ................................................................................................................. 32 Existing Land Use ............................................................................................................................................ 34 Existing Zoning ................................................................................................................................................ 38 Transportation .................................................................................................................................................. 41 Population Projections .................................................................................................................................... 51 Housing Projections, County Zoning Jurisdiction ...................................................................................... 54 Employment Projections, County Zoning Jurisdiction .............................................................................. 55 Land Use Capacity ........................................................................................................................................... 56 Natural Resources ............................................................................................................................................ 57 Land Use Suitability Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 65 Key Challenges and Opportunities in 2035 ................................................................................................. 70 References and Resources .............................................................................................................................. 72 2 | P a g e Comprehensive Land Use Plan Land Use Report FIGURES Figure 1: County Sub-region Comparison, Population Change between 2010 and 2015 ....................... 7 Figure 2: Population Pyramid, Countywide - 2015 ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Population Pyramid, County Zoning Jurisdiction - 2015 ............................................................ 9 Figure 4: Population Pyramid, County Cities - 2015 .................................................................................... 9 Figure 5: St. Louis County Educational Attainment and Median Income by Attainment .................... 11 Figure 6: School Enrollment Percent Change, 2009 to 2016 .................................................................... 12 Figure 7: Barriers to Physical Inactivity ........................................................................................................ 13 Figure 8: Comparison - Percentage Overweight or Obese ........................................................................ 13 Figure 9: Distribution of Housing Stock by Year Structure Built ............................................................ 15 Figure 10: Mortgage as a Percent of Income - 2015 ................................................................................... 15 Figure 11: Rent as Percent of Income - 2015 .............................................................................................. 16 Figure 12: Distribution of Total Household Income by Percentage of Total Earners ......................... 18 Figure 13: County Sub-region Comparison – Median Household Income 2015................................... 19 Figure 14: Employment by Industry ............................................................................................................. 21 Figure 15: Average Payroll per Employee for 2015 (Entire County) ....................................................... 22 Figure 16: Farm by Size, 2002 to 2012 ......................................................................................................... 24 Figure 17: Fire Department Jurisdiction and County Response Districts ............................................... 27 Figure 18: Areas Within NFPA Standard Response Time ........................................................................ 28 Figure 19: Tourism Resources ....................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 20: Existing Land Use – County Zoning Jurisdiction .................................................................... 35 Figure 21: County Mining and Related Features ......................................................................................... 37 Figure 22: Existing Zoning – County Jurisdiction ...................................................................................... 40 Figure 23: Existing Jurisdictional Road Classification ................................................................................ 42 Figure 24: St. Louis County Roadway Functional Classification .............................................................. 44 Figure 25: Recent Average Daily Traffic Levels .......................................................................................... 47 Figure 26: Total Paved Road Miles - 2014 Condition (Pavement Quality Index Status) ...................... 48 Figure 27: Minnesota Demographic Center Population Projection – St. Louis County ....................... 52 Figure 28: Population Projections – County Less Duluth ......................................................................... 53 Figure 29: Population Projection – County Zoning Jurisdiction .............................................................. 54 Figure 30: Residential Designation Demand/Surplus ................................................................................ 56 Figure 31: Employment Designation Demand/Surplus ............................................................................ 57 Figure 32. Existing Land Cover Percentages in St. Louis County (based on NLCD 2011) ................. 60 Figure 33: Natural Areas Framework Map .................................................................................................. 63 Figure 34: Moderate Development Assessment Results ............................................................................ 68 Figure 35: High Intensity Development Assessment Results ................................................................... 69 3 | P a g e Comprehensive Land Use Plan Land Use Report TABLES Table 1: Population Change Comparison 1970 to 2015 .............................................................................. 5 Table 2: Racial/Ethnicity Composition, 2015 ............................................................................................... 6 Table 3: Commuter Breakdown in St. Louis County, 2014 ....................................................................... 16 Table 4: Industry Growth and Decline, 2010-2015 .................................................................................... 21 Table 5: National Register of Historic Places, County Zoning Jurisdiction ........................................... 33 Table 6: Existing Land Use Summary – County Zoning Jurisdiction ...................................................... 34 Table 7: Existing Zoning Summary – County Jurisdiction ........................................................................ 39 Table 8: St. Louis County Functional Road Classification ........................................................................ 45 Table 9: Housing Projections – County Zoning Jurisdiction .................................................................... 55 Table 10: Employment Projections – County Zoning Jurisdiction .......................................................... 55 Table 11. Existing Land Cover Acres in St.