January - February 2008 Volume 68, Number 1 SITREP THE JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL CANADIAN MILITARY INSTITUTE ERIC MORSE National Security Inside this Issue in a Democracy by Senator Hugh Segal National Security in a Democracy ..........................................................................................3 Pakistan, Bhutto and the U.S.–Jihadist Endgame ....................................................................5 Back to the Balkans: Contrasting Visions in an Unclaimed World .........................................7 Waiting for Defence Budget 2008-09 ....................................................................................11 The Croatian Air Force Today ...............................................................................................12 Letters to Sitrep ......................................................................................................................16 From the Editor’s Desk he assassination of Benazir Bhutto highlights both the fragile nature of democratic development in Pakistan ROYAL CANADIAN MILITARY INSTITUTE Tand relations between India, Iran, Pakistan and Afghani- FOUNDED 1890 stan. The reality is that military coups and power struggles are PATRON endemic. Democracy as we know it does not exist in Pakistan. Her Excellency The Right Honourable The Pakistani Army runs both the government and the economy. Michaëlle Jean, CC, CMM, COM, CD Add to this regional tension caused by India and Pakistan possessing nuclear The Governor General of Canada warheads and delivery systems and Iran having a future similar capability—all VICE PATRONS in close proximity to our Canadian commitment in Afghanistan. The Honourable David C. Onley, O.Ont So what are the implications for Canada and our commitment to that region? Lieutenant Governor of Ontario If al Qaeda or the Taliban did kill Bhutto, the stability of the region will be further The Honourable Dalton McGuinty, MPP The Premier of Ontario reduced. The clampdown to quell unrest may result in some of the 60,000 troops General R. J. Hillier, CMM, MSC, CD on the western border being reassigned internally rather than attempting to halt The Chief of Defence Staff His Worship David Miller the Taliban on the porous border with Afghanistan and permit the Taliban greater The Mayor of Toronto freedom of movement to conduct operations against Canadians. This coupled OFFICERS & DIRECTORS with possible increased refugee movement across the border may impact on the LCol (ret’d) J. J. Dorfman, OMM, CD – President NATO mission. If Musharraf or his supporters had a hand in her killing, the West Maj Diane M. Kruger,CD – Vice President and Canada will have to reassess its association with Musharraf. The dilemma Lt(N) (ret’d) James P. McReynolds – Secretary Mr. John J. Ball – Treasurer for NATO and the West is that Musharraf is the only leader presently capable LCol (ret’d) James Breithaupt, KStJ, CD, QC – Director of maintaining stability in the region. Regional stability may have to trump the LCol (ret’d) Peter W. Hunter, CD – Director HCapt(N) Chris Korwin-Kuczynski – Director democratization of Pakistan. Michael Wm. Leahy, Ph.D – Director Senator Hugh Segal shares his views on the necessary parameters for the Maj (ret’d) David Mezzabotta, CD – Director LCol (ret’d) John A. Selkirk, CD – Director national security agendas pursued by democratic nations in the post-911 era and LCol (ret’d) Michael A. Stevenson, CD – Director specifically for Canadian democracy. He believes that democratic nations have EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AND EDITOR a primary duty to provide order—the basis of all freedoms - as well must also protect those who are not in a position to protect themselves and, where possible, Col (ret’d) Chris Corrigan, CD, MA should assist in bringing about improved stability and democratic governance, to PAST PRESIDENT countries such as Afghanistan. HLCol Matthew Gaasenbeek III Dr. George Friedman posits that the endgame of the US–jihadist war always had to be played out in Pakistan because Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda com- HONORARIES mand cells are located in Pakistan and the United States and NATO are engaged Col (ret’d) John Clarry, MBE, ED, CD, QC Honorary President in a war in Afghanistan. Any hope of defeating the Taliban, or of reaching some LCol (ret’d) Bruce W. Savage, CD sort of accommodation, depends on ending their sanctuary and logistical support Honorary Curator Mr. J. L. Granatstein, OC, FRSC from Pakistan. Dr. Desmond Morton, OC Brian MacDonald offers insight into the latest Canadian defence budget. Honorary Historian Mr. Arthur Manvell Steven Vasilevski and Kristian A. Kennedy provide an interesting analysis of Honorary Librarian the Balkans—how far the situation has progressed but also has not, especially in Chaplains The Rev Michael Bechard Kosovo. The Euro-Atlantic vision is at odds with the Russia-Serbia vision which Maj The Rev Gillian Federico, CD is complicated by the legacy of the Soviet Near-Abroad. The Rev Martin Keatings LCdr The Rev J. David Mulholland After a recent trip to Croatia, Peter Pigott, a frequent contributor on matters Capt The Rev Mark L. Sargent, CD aviation, describes the latest developments in the new Croatian Air Force and its General Manager operations that have a Canadian connection. Mr. Michael T. Jones The Defence Studies Committee is always receptive to new members. If you Director of Communications/Assistant Editor wish to pursue defence and security issues in greater depth, consider joining us. Mr. Eric S. Morse Contributing Editor Sincerely, Prof. Sunil Ram OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE ROYAL CANADIAN MILITARY INSTITUTE Colonel (Ret’d) Chris Corrigan 426 University Avenue, Editor and Chair Defence Studies Committee Toronto, Ontario, M5G 1S9 416-597-0286/1-800-585-1072 Fax: 416-597-6919 Copyright © 008 RCMI ISSN 0316-560 SITREP may be fully reproduced in whole or in part for academic re- Editorial E-Mail: [email protected] search or institutional purposes, provided that the author’s and the institute’s copyright is acknowledged. The views Website: www.rcmi.org expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Institute or its members. SITREP National Security in a Democracy The Importance of Homeland Civility by the Hon. Hugh D. Segal, Senator (This article is based on a presentation given by Senator Segal I cite a further example, in early 2005, when Prime on November 26, 2007 at the University Club, Toronto) Minister Tony Blair introduced a “Prevention of Terrorism” bill that included plans to allow police to detain terror suspects t is my belief that democratic nations, including Canada, for up to 90 days without charge, rather than the existing 14 have a primary duty to provide order – the basis of all days. MPs voted instead to extend the time limit to 28 days Ifreedoms. This involves the protection of their citizens, but what was most interesting was that 49 of Mr. Blair’s property and way of life from violent extremists and the ter- own Labour MPs voted against the government including 12 rorism they use. I believe as well that democratic nations, former ministers. The bill was meant to replace a previous including Canada, must also protect those who are not in anti-terrorism measure that had allowed foreign suspects to a position to protect themselves from these same threats be jailed indefinitely without trial and, not surprisingly, had world-wide and, where possible, should assist in bringing been ruled unlawful by the venerable British courts. The about improved stability and democratic governance, even normally sedate House of Lords, often a credit to second in its infancy to countries who would benefit therefrom. This chambers everywhere, then voted 249 to 119 in support of would be a nation like Afghanistan, where the threat persists an opposition Liberal Democrat amendment which modified but the people are willing and eager to move toward a life on the Labour government’s plan even further and threw out the their own terms. I still carry the picture in my mind’s eye of provision that the home secretary would have the singular the exuberant Afghanis who, for the first time in their memo- right to authorize “control orders” against suspects ranging ries and indeed in their lives, were afforded the opportunity from electronic tagging, curfews and bans on phone and In- to cast a ballot – especially the women who proudly raised ternet use to full house arrest. The Lords demanded that it be their “purple fingers” when exiting the voting stations. And impartial judges—not a Cabinet minister—who should have while national security is essential in this post 9-11 era, so the power to impose sweeping restrictions on suspects. And too is a core democratic caution. We must not move unwit- on October 31, 2007, a panel of five senior law lords, Britain’s tingly towards some anti-democratic means of instituting most senior judges, overturned part of the legislation that al- “national security” in the name of democracy protection lows intelligence-based evidence to be withheld from suspects itself. A Kafkaesque destruction of democracy to protect it and their lawyers, calling it a breach of human rights. is of no value. In Canada in the 1970s, the MacDonald Commission, The horrors of September 11th, 2001 have given the term when investigating RCMP wrongdoing, concluded that the “national security” a whole new significance that has con- purpose of ‘National Security” in a democracy is to protect founded some democracies and led, in my opinion, to some democracy itself. Our laws, our orderly markets, our safe rapid reactions that, while well-meaning and presented with communities, our social and economic progress are there the populace’s best interests in mind, can, if we lose our sense because of core democratic principles—like habeas corpus, of balance, place undue constraints on the democratic rights the presumption of innocence, the right of appeal. Where they are meant to protect. The Anti-terrorism Act introduced we must be resolute is this: we do not win the war against by Mr. Chretien in 2001 was rapidly and poorly drafted. It the forces of oppression and sectarian violence by imposing was seriously improved by the House and the Senate.